Normally, yes, but that’s only because good teams generally remain good year over year. This year is remarkable in that so many perennially bad teams came out of nowhere to win the division. Who knows if they’ll be good again next year?
Regarding the strength of schedule game versus the AFC South, I mean, throw a dart at a board to predict who will be the best team next season. (Unless they get the Titans out of this, in which case, hell yeah, much easier.)
Similar deal with the AFC North. Any of those four teams could end up being the one you don’t want to have to face.
In general you’re correct, though, of course. I’m still hung up on the fact that the Chiefs had the sixth hardest schedule this year. I can’t reconcile how that’s possible considering that they played the NFC East.