NFL Predictions Week 6

In My Humble Opinion
1

Hey all. Tried to get this thread in at lunch time today but the site was moving slow and then I only got about a half hour for lunch. OCC audit time. Damn auditors. If someone gets a chance, check last week and update the weekly and overall record (and add the spreads - thanks). I’m picking on the fly here, so take it easy on me. I will incorporate the fantasy email updates I’ve read.

Jaguars 17 at Bills 20
Just a gut feeling here. The Jags are beat up all over the place. Hopefully, at some point, the Bills realize that Surfer Dude sucks and the let Van Pelt run things. I do believe last year I said the Bills should go with Flutie fairly often.
START: Jimmy Smith. Careful on the rest.

Patriots 20 at Colts 31
New England owns the Colts at home. Not so in the dome. Even so, Brady’s bunch will keep it close with that crappy Indy defense.
START: Manning, Edge, Harrison, Pollard.

Rams 31 at Jets 17
Faulk and that knee. One day soon it’s gonna blow. Martz is smart enough to sit him this week though.
START: Warner, Bruce, Holt, Martin.

Falcons 10 at Saints 30
What happens if the Saints are supposed to host the NFC title game in New Orleans? I don’t think NADA will move their convention again.
START: Williams, Horn, Brooks, Saints Defense.

Ravens 17 at Browns 14
The Ravens will be hopping mad after the loss. The Browns have two good game tapes on the Ravens - the Bear game and the Packer game. Spread the offense and they’re beatable. The Browns don’t have the players to do it though.
START: Sharpe, Kevin Johnson.

Panthers 28 at Redskins 16
Quote of the week: Melissa Starks, “You may be wondering why this game is on Monday Night. Frankly, so are we.”
START: Weinke, Hayes, Walls, Conway.

Bears 24 at Bengals 21
I’d really like to take the Bungles here, but their strength plays right into the Bears hands. I still think Dillon has a good game though. The Broncos were a top 10 teams against the run before he went off for 278 on them.
START: Miller, MRobinson, Dillon, Bears Defense (TD).

Buccaneers 14 at Steelers 17
Another game where the offense plays to the defense. The over-under in this one says 33. I thought I was being generous at 31.
START: Meshawn, Bettis.

Titans 31 at Lions 30
Yeah, I know. Out on a limb again. The Lions can’t stop the pass with the defensive backfield they have left. The offense showed a nice spark though…
START: McNair, Wycheck, Batch, Crowell (he has to come on big after throwing the game away last week)

Broncos 17 at Chargers 28
I’m assuming that Greise won’t be able to go. That means the Charger defense can relax a little on the pass (their weakness) and concentrate on the run. The Bronco D meanwhile is letting good RBs fly around like nothing.
START: One of the DEN TE’s – not sure which one though, Tomlinson.

Chiefs 31 at Cardinals 27
Alexander wasn’t on the last injury report I saw. If that’s still the case, start him. In his three games against the Cards he has 300 yards, 2 100 yard games and 3 TDs. And the Cards no longer have Aeneas Williams.
START: Green, Gonzo, Alexander, Boston, Plummer.

Packers 42 at Vikings 17
The border war continues, only this time the Pack is on fire, the 'Queens have no defense, Moss is ailing, and Bennett is out. Fantasy players: remember this name - Travis Prentice. He will be the Vikes leading rusher in yards and TDs by the end of the year.
STARt: Carter, Favre, Green, Bradford, Packer Defense.

Eagles 24 at Giants 17
I know, I know…But I’m a closet Iggles fan and I think McNabb is the best QB around right now. Just look at the games - Cecil Martin, Pinkston, Thrash, Lewis - each has had a 2 TD game. That tells me he’s watching tape, reading the field, and he knows ahead of time the defense’s weaknesses and what they are thinking.
START: McNabb, Pinkston, Toomer.

Okay, gotta go. Damn auditors.

2

I’ve waited all day to see your pick for this one. All I hope is that you’re right.

3

Gazoo a fantasy question for you, if you will. I heard on the news earlier that Faulk wants to play but Martz wants him to sit out. Martz told him wait until Friday and we’ll see. I have to make a roster decision in a few hours. My alternatives are Anthony Thomas (CHI) and Corey Buckhalter (PHI) neither of whom are guaranteed playing time this weekend, AFAIK. So is a 25-50% chance that Faulk might start better than a start for either of these two?

4

Nah. Culpepper will. More’s the pity.

5

I guarantee the Cowboys don’t lose this week.

6

Adding spreads and updating records, per Gazoo’s request

And, the records –

Last week: 7-7 straight up, 4-10 against the spread (I’d feel better if someone double checked that…)

Year to date totals:

46-26 straight up
33-39 A.T.S.

7

Two questions: what makes you think so, and even if that’s the case, do you think he’s worth a spot on the bench? I’ve got the room.

And my weekly annoying “Who should I start?”:

I need to pick 2 starters between between M. Pittman (vs KC), McCardell (vs Buf) and Muhammad (vs Was). Right now I’m leaning towards Pittman and Muhammad, but Keenan at home, against the Boy scouts in the Buf secondary…

8

The Bengals will win! We will win again! We’re going all the way, baby! WooHooo!!! Superbowl bound! We will massacre them Bears!!!

[sub]every now and then, spooje takes leave of his senses[/sub]

9

ShibbOleth - I’d go with A-Train this week. I don’t think Martz will let Faulk play no matter what this week.

mouthbreather - Prentice is a more complete RB than either Bennett or Chapman. With Bennett out this week we’ll see Chapman start and see that he’s not the answer to the running game, that leaves Prentice. I’m not the only one who likes this guy, Dr. Z from SI ranked him as a sleeper in his Top 40 RBs at the beginning of the season. I plan on slipping him onto my bench in our next free agent draft.

For your line-up, I’d go with Muhammad and McCardell, but I’ve never been much of a Pittman fan.

Back to work.

10

I like your picks except:

Rams 31 at Jets 17
Jets will win.

Bears 24 at Bengals 21
Cincy.

Buccaneers 14 at Steelers 17
TB.

Packers 42 at Vikings 17
GB usually stumbles at Min.

Eagles 24 at Giants 17
Giants own Phil. 7 in a row?

11

A few corrections:

Jax is at home vs. Buffalo
Bucs are at home vs. Pittsburg

I’m making my pool picks again (5 team parlay wins the pot), and I’m leaning towards all road teams against the spread. Thats never a good thing. I went 0-fer last week, but so did 13 (of 28) other players.

I like Buffalo to cover, but I’m iffy with Brunell and Smith getting the chance to re-introduce themselves for a 3 TD game. Gonna leave that one be, I don’t want to get eliminated before Sunday, it’d spoil the weekend.

Indy should get even at home, but Belichick’s D seems to give Peyton fits. I’m not betting they’ll cover, but they will win.

I really like the Bears, they’ll win and cover. Cincy’s strengths go right into the Bears teeth. I’m not picking this one because of my “avoid the home team” rule and the fact that the Bears are on the road. I still might come back to it if I talk myself out of another pick.

I have no idea about the Rams-Jets game. I’m conviced the Jets suck, but they keep suprising me and covering. The Rams are awesome, but Faulk probably won’t play. I haven’t seen enough of Trung to know what the O will look like with him running point. If they were on turf I’d take the Rams minus a TD, but I’m leaving this one alone this week.

The Saints-Falcons game is tempting, everything points to a big NO victory, but 8.5 points is alot. NO hasn’t been winning big this year, or putting up alot of points. Chandler is back, but he’ll get pressured alot. Ricky will have 150 yards. But, that scares me because it may end up a low scoring affair, something on the order of 20-13. Saints will win, but I don’t know how big. I could be talked into this pick.

Baltimore isn’t that good. They can’t win when they throw the ball this much. Cleveland however isn’t very good either, and they won’t run at all this week. Baltimore will win, but unless the defense scores they probably won’t cover the spread. I’m leaving this alone. I could easily see this game ending in a 7 point push.

Washington is terrible, Carolina is well coached at least. I’m picking this one for sure. Carolina will cover this one, Muhammad should have a big day, the wildcard however is Steven Davis vs. the Panthers front seven. Weinke will probably not be pressured, and Carolina will dominate special teams. Its not a lock, but Washington has a short week, and has shown nothing of value so far.

Pittsburg will cover that TB spread. I don’t know that they will win, but I’d take the under on this puppy for certain. Bettis will handle the TB defense. I never like to pick any game that has Kordell highly involved, but 6 points is a gift against the Falwell-like Bucs offense. Could be Bucs 14, Steelers 10. I’m taking this game.

Tennessee will stretch their legs against Detroit. If it were on grass it’d be a blowout, but even in the dome Eddie George will cover all by himself against that sissy Lion’s defense. Tenn has had the most hellish schedule ever devised, and they are not a bad team. Not as great as expected, but they haven’t been able to gel against a bunch of very strong defenses. Tennessee by at least a TD. I got this one.

KC over Arizona. I’m picking this one too, Gonzo will play big. KC will run the ball. Arizona won’t. The Bears won easily last week and didn’t play well at all. I hope Plummer doesn’t decide to be a hero this week, it always happens a couple times a year, but he’s gotten it out of his system once. He’s not due again yet.

Farve will continue to roll. I’m picking the Cheeseheads, even if its going to give me a rash. Moss is iffy, and he’s one guy I don’t expect to step it up when dinged. He’ll be taking even more plays off with taht ankle. Ahman should have 150 yards. Taking divisional favorites on the road in the Norris is always a bad idea, but I’m playing the numbers this week.

The Giants should roll on MNF, but McNabb has been playing too well. It’ll be brutal, and the Iggles will benefit from the bye week. The game should be close. This is another one I’d almost be willing to predict a push on. Avois this one like the plague. Primetime, the winning streak, in NY, close loss and a bye week last week…too many X-factors to pick this one either way.

So there it is. I’m sure no one cares what I think after seeing Gazoo’s picks, but typing it out like this helps me think.

You can see I’m counting on the terrible teams staying that way and the favorites covering. I went against AZ, Wash, and Detroit. Washington covered last week, thats probably going to be the best they do all year. Let’s hope that Davis’ 99 yards was a product of the Cowboy’s, and that Schottzie forgets him again. Plummer and Batch could help me with a combined 6 int day. I’d feel better if Batch were still on the pine, but I think the Titans will step up against the Norris’ doormats.

This damn pool gives me a ulcer once a week. Feel free to bash my picks, I can’t still change my mind before 5.

12

Hey Gazoo. Just want an opinion. I think JJ Stokes has been a disappointment as a starter. I think Starting Tai Streets in his place would add the explosiveness the Niners lack, with TO being the only go to guy now. What do you think?

13

stuffin,

Stokes has been a dud this year, I see him laying goose eggs every week for my Fantasy Team. Streets is a money guy, no question, but he’s more of a big play reciever, and probably isn’t the ideal fit for a #2 WR in the West Coast scheme. Both he and JJ have dropped alot of balls. I think its a push between the two. I don’t think you’d see much difference talentwise, it all comes down to which guy the QB feels good with and who runs the best routes. Since JJ is starting, I’d trust Mooch’s judgement.

But then again, it probably wouldn’t hurt to give it a shot, you’re not exactly pulling a real productive guy right now in Stokes. There’s so many 3 WR plays in their play book both get alot of looks anyways.

and most importantly

Bash my picks people, please! I need the feedback on this one. Tell me I’m nuts with some of these, gimme a reason to take a second look at one of those games.

Thank you, that is all.

14

swat

Good god man, you really have taken leave of your senses. The Bengals, ha!

Sit back and watch them Bears. I believe they are for real this year. I can’t remember the last season I saw them actually tackle like they knew how. It’s fun to see real defense in Chicago again.

15

suffinb - I’ve never been a big Stokes fan, so you won’t get much of an argument from me. Streets hasn’t really ben all that consistant either though, so…

16

Actually, Baltimore IS that good. I think you’re being misled by a couple of things here. #1. For whatever reason, the Ravens played very poorly for both weeks 1 and 2, and it took Cincy kicking their ass for them to wake up, which they did. #2. Last week against Green Bay, Elvis got a concussion in the second quarter, and wasn’t replaced until 2/3 of the way through the fourth. Couple that with Farve playing a truly outstanding game and we lose. Yes, the defense was beaten by Farve, but that would only happen from a player of his caliber playing 100% on the top of his game ( as Farve was ) coupled with a offense specializing in 3 and outs and interceptions because Elvis was throwing to “the guy in the middle” because of his concussion. If Cunningham had started the second half, we would have had a very good shot to win. Cleveland is much improved, but Couch isn’t Bret Farve-at least not yet.

17

Come on Gazoo, you didn’t list Eddie George as a starter vs the Lions? Look at what he did vs the tough Tampa Bay D.

Anyway, for my fantasy question. Which three recievers would you start out of Holt, J Smith, Horn, Alexander, and Q. Ismail? I was thinking Smith, Horn, and Alexander, but my friend who usually ends up being right says Smith, Holt, and Ismail. I have no problem with starting Holt, but Ismail over both Horn and Alexander sounds crazy. I don’t care how they’ve been playing, Horn and Al should have big games against pispoor defenses.

18

Yeah–good thing for us we get a bye week now and then, huh? :slight_smile:

I predict that at least once in each game this week (or any other game week, for that matter), the dumb official will call a false start by saying, “False start, prior to the snap,” or words to that effect. I always want to slap them with their flags when they say that, but I rarely hear it called any other way. Can anyone out there tell me what else would constitute a false start? OK, I apologize for digressing from the original intent of this thread, but I just HAD to get that off my chest! :smiley:

19

Am I the only one to notice that all the raps against the Giants last year actually seem applicable to this year?

Case in point, their division. It’s never looked worse. The Redskins are at absolute rock bottom, the Cowboys nearly so, the Cardinals, with each new year, are looking like one of those teams that will NEVER be winners no matter what. That leaves the Eagles, who are burdened with high expectations (unfairly, IMHO) and haven’t beaten the Giants in a long time.

If the Giants win this Sunday, we can almost hand them the division crown right there. Even if they lose, they’re still just a half game behind, and their hardest games are already done with. Furthermore, they’re more consistent than the Eagles and probably a better team overall, and less likely to suffer a late-season breakdown.

Other than that, the only teams in the conference that look really good are the Packers and Rams. Since the Packers are in a tougher division, there’s a chance that the Giants could get a first round bye. If not, none of the prospective wild card teams can pose much of a threat to them.

Any way you slice it, the Giants once again seem to have a clear shot all the way to the conference championship. The only difference being they’re not going to win that one in a laugher.

I don’t know about all of you, but realignment cannot come fast enough for me.

20

Hmm, Eddie George is listed as “questionable” on the injury list. I don’t start anyone who only has a 50% chance of even playing.

Horn, Holt, Alexander on your other question.