Well genius, you got some insight on that topic or are you just trying to be ass?
Omniscient, your overall point is a good one. But I think the actual results of “3rd and 4” situations represent a good proxy for the expectation of 4th and 4 results. And you’re probably right that the data should be cleansed to take out late-game blowouts where the defense is not really trying to stop the play (i.e., prevent defense).
Another potential knock against the statistical analysis done (I say potential because I don’t know the full methodology employed) is that it may have overlooked potential benefits of punting, e.g., pinning the other team down deep and then scoring on a safety, or a fumble on the punt return, etc…
I suspect that this is what they probably do, but I think it’s still inherently flawed. A fumble or interception is still a huge penalty on a 3rd down play. On a failed 4th down play it’s most likely a neutral result. Defenses, because they know the offense will still be cautious, calls defenses in a specific way. Offenses, because they don’t see a punt as a catastrophe, will still occasionally press up field on 3rd and short. The dynamics and psychology on 4th down is dramatically different.
Regardless of the details Accuscore is making an assumption somewhere. That assumption makes the data very suspect considering the volatility of NFL plays. I stand by my assertion that goal to go plays would be the closest analog to 4th down plays as opposed to any other measure.
Anti-punt advocates as a rule do not see the game as a battle for field position.
Punters seem to have gotten really poor at the coffin corner kick these days. There seem to be way more touchbacks now than I recall from my youth. I suspect that some of the anti-punt ammo is a result of these 22 yard net punts that are infuriating.
Yeah, I’m starting to feel that now that Feagles retired. Though it’s tough to actually remember the last time the Giants punted…
Brad Maynard is supposedly one of the league’s best punters. The dunce that does the NFC North ESPN Blog even went so far as to say that his fluky punt to the 1 yard line in the Bills game should earn him an immediate contract extension. I’ve watched a lot of Brad Maynard, he’s nothing special. There are a lot of kickers out there who can kick the ball from the 45 out of bounds at the 17. Get me a guy who can kick it out at the 4 please. If the guy can’t get it inside the 10 regularly from inside the 50 he’d better be able to go Shane Lechler on it and kick it 75 yards and totally flip the field.
Reggie Hodges of the Browns has 16 punts inside the 20 (he almost single-footedly kept the Browns in the game against the Steelers), and of his 41 punts only 18 have been returned for a total of 63 yards. 9 of his punts have been downed by the coverage team, good for 2nd in the league. So he’s a good punter with a good punt unit.
Maynard, incidentally, leads the league in punts kicked out of bounds with 9.
Also, looking at the 10 punters who have had the most punts returned against them, only Lechler is averaging over 40 net yards per punt.
Where you getting those stats?
So that Terrell Owens is pretty impressive for an old dude.
He took that big hit too that looked like the sort of thing that might’ve decapitated lesser receivers but hopped right up. He may be an egomaniacal jackass, but the dude is made of ageless steel.
If I was a GM forced to choose between Owens and Moss at gunpoint, I’d choose Owens, even though he’s older. At least I know Owens can still make tough catches for first downs, and doesn’t want to just run up the field and not block anyone.
I’ve honestly been real impressed TO this year. I feel like he could play another 2 seasons at a reasonably high level.
I have a pet theory that a receiver’s longevity (and, to a lesser extent, a running back’s) is directly tied to whether he suffers knee injuries. Owens has never torn a cruciate ligament or knee tendon.
Hell, his worst season injury-wise was 2004, when he missed the last two regular season games with a broken leg (the “horse collar” play).
He’s never missed more than two games in any season except 2005, and that was because he was suspended.
Or maybe it’s the other way - Owens never got hurt because he’s a superhero, which is also why he’s still going at age 36.
I didn’t take a position one way or the other on which is the cart or which is the horse. That could certainly be the case.
I think TO’s longevity is attributable to two things:
He’s been fortunate to avoid any major knee injuries
and
Even by NFL player standards, the dude works out a ridiculous amount and is in incredible shape.
[Ivan Drago]He’s not human. He’s like a piece of iron.[/Ivan Drago]
Anyone else get the feeling that Ochocinco is getting really sick really fast of being shown up on the field by TO? So far he has 15 fewer catches, but almost half the yards and less then a third of the TDs. His attitude and frustration during the Pittsburgh game this week spoke volumes.
Really, it was just a matter of time, right? And I mean that either way (as in, you could switch TO for Ocho in that post and it’s just as believable and inevitable). Egos like that just can’t be held in check for long.