Niger unrest

The BBQ Pit
1

I’ve read that ECOWAS told those taking over the Niger government they have one week to release the previously elected president or they will intervene with their militaries. Some of the citizens there have strong viewpoints.

My unformed view is the neighboring countries should have no right or privilege in crossing Niger’s boundaries. From my novice view no country has that kind of latitude, to just invade another country because the country’s having an insurrection. My uneducated view is the neighboring governments probably saw the upcoming change and had latitude to introduce diplomacy but shouldn’t get to have military intervention.

Since I’m from the USA, I don’t think this country ever had the right to invade to stop new governments in formally independent and internationally recognized nations from having formed either.

And this thread is without doubt unconventional. I’m humble about it and would like to read Dopers’ viewpoints. For me there’s no shame in pitting myself.

2

That’s really the question here. I have read that those supporting the coup have been praising Russia and chanting Putin’s name in the streets, and the Wagner guy has applauded the situation. So, is it really the people rising up independently to form a new government, or is this a win for Putin and his interests by stirring-up shit in the Sahel?

AIUI there is a lot of western and US aid tied to the coup leaders preserving the health of the democratically elected president (as well as aid to those ECOWAS nations), and restoring order to the government. So, the coup leaders may, or may not, be in Putin’s pocket, but time will tell what they are going to do and if they plan on having a legitimate government after this.

3

This kind of thing is tough. When does another country have a right to step in? When do they have the obligation to?

Is there a severe humanitarian crisis? Does the new regime pose an eminent threat to other countries?

As shitty as the situation is, I don’t think it’s anyone else’s business unless there is a yes to either of those questions.

I will say that I only have a passing familiarity with the situation, based on what little I heard briefly a few times listening to news on NPR last week.

4

I’m of many minds myself, but at least one POV (This NPR article for example) indicates that there was no specific internal reason for the coup to happen right now. The language being used and the timing though, as mentioned by @snowthx lends some credibility to external influence behind the current events.

In that situation, is external military intervention justified? Probably, but doesn’t mean it’s a good idea either. The US and other nations (see the mentions of protest being directed to former colonial overlord France in this situation) have long had a history of meddling and forcing a unity and/or forms of government that don’t have the cultural underpinnings to be stable, perhaps especially in Africa.

But I don’t think military intervention is/will be the first, second, or even third response by those involved, not when the continuation of military and financial aid is already on the table as being withheld. Can Russia or China step in and play the supporter to local self-government? Sure, but both of those are also hurting right this second, and while Russia would probably be more willing to eat the losses to show a win in terms of international support, I suspect that China has lost enough in various investments in the African continent to be cautious in light of their struggles to maintain domestic growth.

(points to all for having a nuanced discussion in the Pit again, so I’ll just add a gratuitous “Shit” and “Fuck” for form’s sake)

5

We can have good discussions, it just means you don’t have to walk on eggshells as much. I fucking love the Pit sometimes.

6

Thus the “again”. :slight_smile:

For the record though, there are plenty of people who mute the Pit on general principles, so it does somewhat limit the participants. -shrug-

7

In International law there’s a concept called “Responsibility to Protect”. It says it’s immoral / illegal for countries to sit by and watch another country be swallowed by chaos and civil war. See

To be sure, the specific application of this concept is often controversial.

Mostly because so many actors, both internal and international are only looking to loot a situation, not actually improve it. Often the would-be “protectors” are merely trying to gain a foothold for their own ends.

And because for every protective effort expended in some other country, that same effort could be applied to improving [whatever] back home. Which tends to make protective efforts unpopular in democracies. Who are probably the only sorts of regimes that might at least possibly not be motivated solely by bad motives.

8

Responsibility to protect-that’s good reasoning. I see how that applies. Thanks LSL!

9

Thank you to snowthx, Atamasama and ParallelLines also for your insights! I liked how you talked about global work with Niger and how people use the pit was good too.

10

The level of civilized discourse and thoughtful analysis in this Pit thread is positively disgusting. :rofl:

Seriously, though, I wouldn’t mind if the OP requested a forum change to P&E or elsewhere. Mostly because whenever I see this thread title here I momentarily infer that the thread probably got put in the Pit because somebody got gross with the name “Niger”, and wince.

11

Some articles on the situation:

Coup in Niger: The Hindu Editorial on the ouster of President Mohamed Bazoum - The Hindu (disinterested source)

It sounds like there were some similar situations in the last few years. I haven’t checked when, precisely, those were but the ECOWAS states threatened to intervene and then didn’t. If it was during the Trump era, then that could be an issue that they didn’t have support from the West.

If this is the doing of Wagner, I could see the Biden administration going to France and arranging a backstop for ECOWAS to act.

12

Article showing the current and ongoing steps as well as the military’s defiance.

A couple of points, power is being cut, borders are being closed, although a delegation is present as of today to try to negotiate. As for military action:

“The military option is the very last option on the table, the last resort, but we have to prepare for the eventuality,” said Abdel-Fatau Musah, ECOWAS Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security.

More details on the sanctions here:

So as said earlier, it’s not going to be an early or easy choice.

13

Going fully into IMHO mode though, I think the talk of Putin is a symptom, rather than a cause. The way I’ve read the various articles is that Niger is incredibly poor, supported by increasing international debt and aid contingent upon allowing the West to stage from the nation.

Simultaneously they have their own problems with Islamic and other internal and external threats, which the military has to deal with. It -looks- like the President realized that the situation was ripe for a coup, and had retired some of the generals and tried to reduce some of the (considerable) perks for them, especially the Presidential guard.

So the military (and likely any popular support) sees Putin as a role model, rather than speaking of him as a supporter. Put someone strong who will make the military/nation respected and safe again, and who cares about what it takes to make that happen.

Again, IMHO, but the West’s efforts to export democracy have often fallen afoul of an assumption that embracing Democracy = quick fix to your problems. So a form of representative government takes place, but very little if anything changes for the person on the street. And there’s rarely anyone in a representative government that you can blame easily, or be seen to take responsibility for nothing getting better (or at least not quickly).

So the ‘backsliding’ mentioned in the article happens, a turn to someone with the appearance of strength that can ‘fix’ things. A tendency that recent events across the world points out is a common human failing.

Granted, I don’t think the West or any nation has the political and economic clout to actually DO the requisite nation and economy building to fix the problems, after all, that money could be spent buying support at home, and who wants to create a rival (see Japan post WW2 as an unexpected exception)?

And based on the language used about the inhumane sanctions, I see the military doubling down on Putin’s (and Trump’s) favorite tactics: “Things are BAD because THEY keep making it worse! I can fix it for you, but THEY keep doing BAD things! You are right to be angry at THEM!”

-sigh-

14

If one uses the “responsibility to protect”, which seems solid, it still requires “genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing or crimes against humanity”. A coup in itself may not satisfy this requirement even if it leads to civil war. You also presumably require proof and to overcome the inertia of not doing enough or anything.

Canada has put $500 million into Niger over the last twenty years. Are they going to want to do more? Could they realistically? I don’t know, but…

15

As I’ve argued, before, charity is rarely all that charitable. Solutions solve problems, not money. Maybe you need capital to enact the solution but, just as often as not, it’s more about who your leadership team is, what the strategy is, whether it’s a tried and proven method or not, etc.

More Canadian aid could help. Most likely, it would do nothing but that really depends on what it is. Putting a pool in at the worst school in Canada isn’t going to improve the quality of the education. Financing classes that the parents need to attend, to teach them how to emphasize the importance of school in their futures, maybe that would do something (maybe not) but it’s a better shot. Tracking down all the drug dealers on campus and locking them up might do even better and that’s not even a financial thing so much as it is a matter of prioritization for the local police department.

Money doesn’t do anything. Bigger numbers aren’t better numbers. The right amount for the right things is all that matters.

16

Ideally there’d be a UN resolution authorizing intervention by any third-party.

~Max

17

That would be nice yeah.

18

I was wrong with my initial post. I saw the photo of Niger’s junta hoisting a Russian flag in Niamey from yesterday. Maybe i should ask a mod to close the thread

19

Rather than closing it, it’s probably a better fit for MSPSIMS (although it may be too speculative for breaking news).

20

Niger is closing its airspace, in the expectation of battle, and says that it has seen two of its neighbors preparing to invade. Apparently, ECOWAS gave them until Sunday to let the President go free, and they didn’t.

Burkina Faso and Mali (which were both taken over by military coups in the last few years) are saying that they’ll also join in, to help the coup succeed.