The forum title, “Quarantine Zone”, seems to be non-Covid-specific. So how about a little panic for the Nipah virus?
https://news.yahoo.com/experts-nipah-virus-potential-another-010041031.html
OT1H, less transmissible from non-human animals to human animals. OTOH, has something like 70% fatality rate, with additional nasty long-haul shit for those unlucky enough to survive.
(No, Discobot, this topic is not similar to “Non-porn movies that sound like they could/should be.”)
Sounds awful. Fortunately, it seems like it can only be transferred via saliva.
Do we have to have “viruses can mutate” in every single article now? Yes, the common cold could mutate into Black Death 2. As could any other virus. Theoretically. I suppose since it’s all theory, they figure it can go in any article. Doesn’t really need to be in any of them either.
A general rule for viruses is that the more communicable they are the less deadly. So I wouldnt worry about contracting Nipah any more than I would Ebola or Marburg.
I agree; this is not a direct concern to people outside certain geographic areas.
Some viruses are more prone to mutation than others. Influenza virus, for example, is extremely mutable, which is why there is no long-lasting vaccine for it.
I know they can mutate. But I’m already tired of the “folk wisdom” of your unvaccinated neighbor being a bad person because they’ll get Covid and it will mutate inside them into an unstoppable version. It’s only in the article for clickbait purposes.
So, we can look forward to Republicans/conservatives renaming them to freedom fries it to freedom kissing?
Or by eating contaminated food, by which they suggest fruits that have been gnawed on by fruit bats. If fruit bats prove to be a major vector (more so than lots of other critters), then the outbreaks could be limited to areas where fruit bats live. But the article suggests that once it gets into people, then they can become vectors too. It also mentions that it has less transmissibility than Covid (i.e., R0<1) so that’s the less-bad news about it.
I am assuming saliva only because of how it comes from the bats, and R0 < 1. Saliva is obviously harder to transmit than an aerosol.
There have been, and are, many viruses with the potential to become either regional epidemics or global pandemics. Most do not (thank Og!) otherwise there wouldn’t be 7+ billion people on the planet.
I (don’t) look forward to a couple decades of articles breathlessly cautioning about the next epidemic. Most of them won’t, and it will devolve to crying wolf until the next actual pandemic erupts.
I do think the world should have more robust monitoring, basic research, and public health infrastructure to look for potential threats and to deal with threats early.
I think it unlikely nipah will become a world-wide threat (certainly, it could be a local problem). I hope that I am not wrong.
Or, you know, cause that’s what happened with Delta (and every other variant out there.) The simple fact remains that the fewer people there are carrying SARS-COV-2 around and for less time, the fewer variants there will be. My unvaccinated neighbor is not helping that effort, and he deserves shit for it.
Not entirely sure that’s correct; smallpox had an r0 of 3.5 or more, and it could kill up to 1/3 of its victims in communities that hadn’t encountered the virus before.
Up to 90% of victims in communities who hadn’t encountered the virus before, actually.
Quite a bit depended on the exact variation of the smallpox virus, of which there were (are) several.
Yeah I was being conservative with those numbers - I’ve read some r0 stats of up to 6 or higher for smallpox. It does seem that mortality and infectiousness gradually declined in the 18th Century but as you say, more so for communities that had already had generations of people exposed to it.
Smallpox is arguably responsible for nearly wiping out a fair number of indigenous tribes. It devastated the tribes of Massachusetts and other places in colonial America
Not a virus, but the infectious disease called white nose syndrome has killed upwards of 90% of the bats in naive populations it has encountered in the US.
Apparently, Eurasian bats are mostly immune to it, but it might have devastated their populations in the distant past.
Infectious diseases that kill their host too quickly don’t spread very effectively, but if they kill slowly, or become infectious before symptoms are severe (which is true of covid, it is most infectious a couple days before symptoms emerge) they can be arbitrarily deadly and still spread effectively.