Non-media organizations planning to do their own exit polling of the election

[BrainGlutton]

From the New York Times, 10/17/04 – http://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/17/weekinreview/17plis.html?oref=login:

ASHINGTON — Since the 1960’s, the exit poll, that staple of election-night television, has been used along with other tools to declare winners when the polls close in each state, and its accuracy is noted later when the actual vote count proves it right. A landmark exception, of course, came in 2000, when the networks initially gave the decisive Florida vote to Al Gore.

But now exit polls are being used in some places to monitor the official vote count itself, either to validate the outcome or to mount a challenge to it.

That has happened in several countries in the last year, and in the United States one organization plans to use exit polls in five closely contested states in November to measure whether there have been impediments to voting.

<snip>

Votewatch, a nonpartisan, nonprofit organization based in San Francisco, plans to conduct exit polls in selected states to monitor election procedures and record impediments to voting, including voting equipment flaws, confusion over ballots and perceived discrimination by polling officials.

Given the dozen or so things that smell bad about this election, I guess I feel relieved that an extra safeguard is being put in place. But – is there any chance this could backfire? People often object to exit polling because of the “bandwagon effect” – news stations on the East Coast release their exit poll results as soon as the polls close, showing candidate X in the lead, and then out in California some undecided voters vote X because they want to back a winner – and some backers of candidate Y get discouraged and stay home – and some backers of X stay home because it’s looks like X doesn’t really need their vote . . . Will there be any safeguards in place to prevent this? Does it matter?

[NurseCarmen]

@NYT

Votewatch won’t be projecting who will win or lose in November - only the incidence of voting problems that might affect the outcome.

Since they won’t be projecting on live tv, like the media used to, there will be no bandwagon.

[BrainGlutton]

@NurseCarmen

Since they won’t be projecting on live tv, like the media used to, there will be no bandwagon.

Come on, you don’t think they’re going to release their results to the media immediately? The press is certainly going to nag them to.

[BrainGlutton]

BTW, the same article points out that exit-polling played a crucial role in the 2003 parliamentary elections in Georgia. The official results declared President Shevardnadze’s party the winner, but the exit polls told a different story. An angry mob marched on the presidential palace, and Shevardnadze was forced to resign.

But nothing like that could ever happen here, could it?

[Patty_O_Furniture]

a nonpartisan, nonprofit organization based in San Francisco

Ha!