As a democracy it would be extremely difficult for South Korea to sell a war to its citizenry - a war that will lead to trillions in economic cost and thousands of casualties - absent a major attack from the North. Pyongyang has been smart enough not to give them that.
I’ve never seen Kim and Garfield at the same time…
Their are numerous rumors that at least one citizen has lost a finger due to Kim’s persistent snarfing.
This a tremendous change. We have become accustomed to the idea that all the stakeholders (China, NK, SK) have an interest in maintaining the status quo. Most analyses of the situation hinge on the premise that China wants to support NK and will not allow it to fall because it perceives NK as a buffer between China and the US-aligned SK.
What we’ve seen in recent weeks changes that quite a bit. It is extremely unusual for China to criticize NK, much less take affirmative steps to damage it. NK, meanwhile, is biting the hand of its most reliable ally. Now, it is entirely possible that this is all theater and misinformation. On the other hand, if this signals a shift in attitudes that will grow over time it might signal the end of the China/NK alliance, and that’s a HUGE deal.
I thought everyone gave him a finger.
They quit doing that after those who insult the Tubby Dictator were shot with anti-aircraft guns after piranha had eaten their limbs.
It won’t be sold as a war. It will be an “intervention” to save the lives of millions of their fellow koreans who are starving to death from famine. No country in the last 50 years has ever declared “war” and thats moot in this case anyway as SK and NK are still technically at war.
Last time a famine happened they still had political support from China, so the south couldn’t intervene. That no longer seems to apply.
Can you do the board a favor and not pontificate on South Korea when you obviously know nothing about the country’s government or society?
South Koreans are well aware that their country is still at war with North Korea. South Koreans are well aware of what’s been happening in North Korea under all three of its leaders, so there won’t be a “sudden understanding” about starvation in the North.
From wiki - Humanitarian food aid from the years 1995-2011 - 12,390 thousand tons. Mostly given by South Korea, China and the US. Now Jong Un’s worst enemies. Guess he might get cut off of his Hennessy supply. And of course millions may die.
In the 90’s, the then Soviet Union had it’s own problems and stopped supporting them. Then there where terrible floods and also drought. Not much different from the previous 40 years or so though when famine has always been a meal away.
It’s tragic and fascinating. It is truly the slowest train wreck I’ve ever seen.
And?
My knowledge of NK comes from books I’ve read about it. From people that have experienced it. I don’t see anything wrong with coremelts comment. I don’t see where you read into it the SK will have a “sudden understanding”.
I see you are in China. What are your thoughts about the embargo, and China taking part?
Don’t tell me not to post. And learn some reading comprehension, my point was that the last time a famine happened in NK, the South could not intervene because of the threat of China getting involved. There is substantial doubt whether China would do anything now if the South invaded, especially if it was to halt massive starvation.
I’m currently in China; I spent approximately ten years (late 1970s & late 200ss) in South Korea. I’m glad to see the Chinese government owning up to international obligations.
What’s wrong with coremelt’s scenario is the delusion that the South Korean government will “sell” a new war to its populace as a means of rescuing the poor starving benighted northerners. South Korea has, in fact, provided food and other humanitarian aid to the north–and this is while knowing full well that not only are the two countries at war, but that the north consistently and constantly demonizes the south. And the ROK did not have to go to an active shooting war to provide such aid.
Take your own advice. I did not tell you not to post. I made a suggestion that you should learn something before shooting off your mouth.
Nope. The South will not intervene in the North. Unlike the DPRK, the ROK is holding to its stated goal of peaceful reunification of the peninsula.
There’s zero doubt about that. First off, South Korea will not attack the North. Second, if it were to do so, the PRC would send more than a few troops into NK to repel such an invasion. Apparently you missed all the many times the PRC government has outlined its policy regarding the Korean peninsula: “Stability”. By that, the PRC means: “no change in the status quo”.
So you think theres zero chance that the PRC might change its policy now that NK has declared it to be an enemy and threatened a “nuclear storm” against them? Nope, China will still say “status quo” when a clearly unstable paranoid megalomaniac with nuclear weapons has just declared them to be an enemy.
Wake up Monty, policies change based on events, and the current situation is unprecedented, there has never been a split between North Korea and China before.
I’m fully awake. I’m also quite aware of how much bluster pronouncements from NK happen to be. Evidently, the PRC is also aware of that. here is a fun read from a PRC government mouthpiece dated just yesterday.
While NK’s military continues to erode, the possibility that they may be able to deliver a nuclear weapon (perhaps by an aging tractor or more likely a fishing boat) grows.
NK is the crazy next door neighbor armed with an old shotgun and some dynamite. It’s children are starving, but refuses help to grow a garden while demanding food for the parents.
Yes they are downplaying NK’s aggression, which is to be expected. All that article does is call for the resumption of six party talks and that they don’t want the US to deploy THAD in SK, which is standard stuff. The fact that the PRC has agreed to join the UN sanctions against NK is the bit which is unprecedented, as they say actions speak louder than words and China joining the sanctions speaks very loudly that they have run out of patience with their dangerously unpredictable neighbour.
You must have missed how the PRC went about joining the sanctions against NK.
Please enlighten me. What are you referring to?
Well so far you’ve provided zero cites for your claim that the PRC still wants the status quo, merely arrogantly stating that you know better than everyone else. That doesn’t cut it. There is plenty of indications that have already been posted in this thread that its not business as usual. It seems pretty clear that China does not want North Korea to possess nuclear weapons and North Korea is not backing down. Something has to give.