NK’s missiles seem somewhat unreliable if not erratic. They are now hitting in the waters closer to Japan. The last one ‘near’ Japans territorial waters. Near could mean anything.
Anyway…
The hypothetical/s, that I think could become very real.
1- NK launches an unarmed missile and it hits Japan doing nothing more though than putting a hole in a field and leaving behind its litter.
2 - NK launches an unarmed missile and it hits Japan taking out a house and killing 3 people.
North Korea has sent commandos ashore in Japan to kidnap innocent civilians several times, and the response does not seem to have ever risen past diplomatic indignation.
Hmmm. Thinking there should be a response though. And my OP said ‘Should’ not will.
I think that in scenarios 1 & 2, the response should be that any more missiles fired in an easterly direction will result in the immediate destruction of a number of their launch facilities. They are welcome to test fire missiles westward into test ranges that China will need to provide for them.
1a,2a - If we know what launch sites they came from (I suspect we do), they should be destroyed. If they came from a mobile launcher, that can not be found, destroy mobile launchers that can be found, and or static launch sites.
If we launch a limited attack on North Korea they will counter attack with conventional weapons against Seoul. When we attack it has to be all out and we have to send them back to the Stone Age.
Yes probably. I have my doubts about just how effective or frankly even useable their artillery is north of Seoul. And if they sent so much as one volley towards Seoul, there should be a large air/missile and counter battery assault on NK’s artillery emplacements with conventional weapons.
This might be simplistic but if the missiles fall on Japan why not let Japan make the response determination? And if Japan decides on some form of reactive strike we (the U.S.) can at least say “Hey, we didn’t respond, the Japanese did. Take it up with them.”
If I were Japan and either scenario took place I would threaten physical retaliation on the next occurance.
Actually I’d prefer China to counter-attack. But we haven’t really prepared for this circumstance. Our strategy has been to wait and let people die as we await the inevitable death of many more. More to your point, I don’t think Japan has the capability to launch an effective counter-attack, but sure, let them try, it gives us cover to launch our attack that we haven’t prepared for.
Japan does not have the ability to counter-attack with out SK and US help.
China won’t because NK is their ally. NK is Chinas rabid dog under their porch, and needs to be involved. This is why I suggested that NK is welcome to test their missiles to the west. China. I’m sure China would not agree.
There’s your problem. You are trying to save 26 million people who are, unfortunately, beyond saving. Even if the NK government flipped 180 degrees tomorrow and became the world’s most peaceful country, most of those people would die poor and wretched. There are just too many of them is too bad a shape for any country or group of countries to save.
Interestingly, North Korea has found a certain amount of death and harm it can get away with without retaliation. Take the 2009 sinking of the South Korean *Cheonan *corvette which killed 46 South Korean sailors. There was no military retaliation.
The idea that you could punitively bomb North Korea without launching the Second Korean War is ludicrous. You can’t bomb North Korea and expect them to apologize. It can’t happen.
If you want to launch a full scale war against North Korea for the sake of liberating the North Korean slave population, just say so. But any such war is very likely to cause the deaths of millions of people on both sides of the border. Prepositioned and dug-in North Korean artillery will cause immense damage to Seoul before the Allied side could destroy it. And then we’d have to invade a country that has done nothing else except prepare for invasion for the last 50 years.
Sure, it’s likely that the invasion would go fairly smoothly. North Korean soldiers would be pinned down and unable to maneuver. But will they surrender or die in place? Your plan to liberate them will involve literally massacring North Korean soldiers. And then after the war, clean up the mess, with South Korea’s capital in ruins, and every bit of infrastructure in the North that’s worth dropping a bomb on destroyed. Mass starvation in the North, even with herculean aid efforts, and the South’s economy shattered.
South Korea should have been preparing for this for decades. They rely on us to pay for them to maintain this stalemate to their benefit while millions of North Koreans have starved to death. This situation will not end without millions more dying in some way. We have the potential to take out the NK artillery, but it will take a massive attack that we have not put substantial resources into preparing for. Even if the Chinese do take care of this themselves those madmen will unleash their weapons on Seoul anyway. There is no end to this that doesn’t involve death and suffering of massive proportions. No one will willingly sacrifice to make the end come sooner.
It’s pretty easy to complain that other people aren’t making the necessary sacrifices that you want. And no, we aren’t paying the South Koreans to maintain the stalemate, where you do you get this idea? Yeah, there are American troops in SK. A few of them. The vast majority of South Korea’s defensive forces are made up of South Korean troops. South Korea has a massive and modern military that can easily defend the country against any invasion from the North. What they can’t do, and what no country could do, is set up a defense that would prevent thousands of dug-in artillery tubes from firing a couple dozen times at a city-sized target and causing incredible damage.
If you want to complain that the South Koreans should have moved their capitol to a more defensible position 50 years ago and never developed Seoul into an indefensible 20 million person megalopolis, well, maybe they shouldn’t have. Given where we are now, though, complaining that they don’t have the guts to launch a war to invade North Korea is a little silly.
Read the OP and my follow up. Where did I suggest that NK apologize? Or bomb NK? Surgical strikes against the facilities that launched the missiles is what I recommend.
I suggest that after missiles land in Japan, that we take out the missile launching sites.
I will, and have not.
I think the NK artillery is a paper tiger. But also think that the longer we can let it rust, the better.