North Korea Hypothetical

[Wesley_Clark]

@Stranger_On_A_Train

I don’t know that we should say that the innocent people living under the North Korean regime are “a write-off and always will be,” but even if Gregory Peck, David Niven, and Anthony Quinn snuck their way into Pyongyang and killed off the entire leadership in one fell blow, reintegrating the Korean Peninsula is an unenviable task to contemplate. Those who experienced the reunification of East German with West Germany can attest to this, and that was a relatively seamless and almost conflict-free process with an East Bloc client state that was, while impoverished by Western standards, at least had a more or less working infrastructure and bureaucratic apparatus with a population that was essentially well-educated in everything but economics and political theory, with a population largely eager to join the workforce and start reaping the baubles of capitalism. North Korea, on the other hand, has been so diminished and dismantled (and was never wealthy even by relative standards) that it would be a substantial burden upon South Korea for the indefinite future.

Stranger

I believe west Germany’s GDP was about 3x higher than East Germany during reuinification, the difference between South Korea and North Korea is 20x. Plus as you said, NK has no infrastructure. Plus the people in NK are suffering from an endless number of physical and mental illnesses due to all the starvation and political terror they undergo. Retardation, depression, PTSD, paranoia and various physical ailments are rampant there. There is no real sense of community or ability to trust leadership in NK after the fall of the regime. I wouldn’t be surprised if a military junta was the only working solution for a while.

Personally, I’m wondering if China will just stage a coup and make NK into a vassal state. That seems like the most optimistic outcome. The Chinese stage a coup, remove the Kim leadership and then turn NK into a protectorate that follows the economic and social reforms of China, where they can use the rare earth metals and cheap labor of North Korea to help their own economy. Also in this scenario China doesn’t have a unified Korean peninsula aligned with the US, and Kim is no longer able to destabilize the region.

[Musicat]

@drewder

The response should be an immediate invasion of North Korea by a coalition of South Korea, Japan, the USA and China. The Il family should be put on trail for their crimes and executed.

Interesting how you worded (and spelled) that. Why put them on trial (not trail) if you are going to execute them anyway? Does that make it seem fairer?

[Broomstick]

@TriPolar

If we launch a limited attack on North Korea they will counter attack with conventional weapons against Seoul. When we attack it has to be all out and we have to send them back to the Stone Age.

Haven’t they managed to get about halfway back to that on their own? It’s a black spot on the ground at night, every other country around them lit up.

[Wesley_Clark]

@Musicat

Interesting how you worded (and spelled) that. Why put them on trial (not trail) if you are going to execute them anyway? Does that make it seem fairer?

A trial will expose some of their crimes and force them to accept responsibility for them.

[mlees]

@Wesley_Clark

A trial will expose some of their crimes and force them to accept responsibility for them.

“Them” who? The North Korean population? The same population that has been force fed propaganda for the last 60 years?

They wouldn’t believe any trial conducted by foreigners to be anything other than a sham.

[ultimate11]

@Lemur866

The idea that you could punitively bomb North Korea without launching the Second Korean War is ludicrous. You can’t bomb North Korea and expect them to apologize. It can’t happen.

Actually, the First Korean War is still going on, it’s just been in a ceasefire for the past few decades. (Just a year ago the treaty was invalidated (again) by the PRK).

[QUOTE=Wikipedia]
Source: Link

An armistice is a formal agreement of warring parties to stop fighting. It is not necessarily the end of a war, since it may constitute only a cessation of hostilities while an attempt is made to negotiate a lasting peace. It is derived from the Latin arma, meaning “arms” (as in weapons) and -stitium, meaning “a stopping”.
[/QUOTE]

I wonder if the PRK is testing out the missiles to see if could be purposed to hit islands via underwater? Currently there’s no evidence (that we know of) that the PRK has technologies to send missiles from the air, hitting the water and then having it cruise to its destination. Air to sea, to clarify. That could possibly explain why they’re sending the missiles out to the water. The dumbest reason would be that they’re testing out the theory that it’s easier to shoot fish in a barrel, so the same can be said about shooting missiles in an ocean (course the physics would prevent it from working).

[Wesley_Clark]

@mlees

“Them” who? The North Korean population? The same population that has been force fed propaganda for the last 60 years?

They wouldn’t believe any trial conducted by foreigners to be anything other than a sham.

My understanding is that many people in North Korea realize the regime is lying and that the outside world is far better, they just can’t do anything about it. The last 20 years have seen an endless number of DVDs, digital books, cell phones, radio, etc. flood the country. I think 20% or more listen to foreign media.

[Chimera]

As the Chinese leaders have privately said, they’d be fine with a unified Korea under Seoul. Even as a current US ally, this poses no threats to them as long as US troops are not moved north of the ‘old’ border into North Korea.

The long view, which the Chinese would be considering, would be that over a period of 20-30 years, South Korea would move closer to China (naturally, of course, as they share a common border) and away from the US, and US troops would be removed.

And of course, if there was no North Korea posing a threat, China could press for faster removal of US troops.

[Broomstick]

If nothing else, if North Korea was no longer a threat the US would probably be willing to sharply reduce their forces in Korea.

[drewder]

@Lemur866

The idea that you could punitively bomb North Korea without launching the Second Korean War is ludicrous. You can’t bomb North Korea and expect them to apologize. It can’t happen.

If you want to launch a full scale war against North Korea for the sake of liberating the North Korean slave population, just say so. But any such war is very likely to cause the deaths of millions of people on both sides of the border. Prepositioned and dug-in North Korean artillery will cause immense damage to Seoul before the Allied side could destroy it. And then we’d have to invade a country that has done nothing else except prepare for invasion for the last 50 years.

Sure, it’s likely that the invasion would go fairly smoothly. North Korean soldiers would be pinned down and unable to maneuver. But will they surrender or die in place? Your plan to liberate them will involve literally massacring North Korean soldiers. And then after the war, clean up the mess, with South Korea’s capital in ruins, and every bit of infrastructure in the North that’s worth dropping a bomb on destroyed. Mass starvation in the North, even with herculean aid efforts, and the South’s economy shattered.

Technically it wouldn’t be a second Korean war it would be a continuation of the first war which never ended. Also we’re pretty good at shooting down anything the NK could launch against SK. Missiles or mortor shells. The technology was developed pretty well in Iraq. Dealing with the situation of the people after the war would be difficult, however it would not be as difficult as it was after world war 2 in Europe and Japan.

[drewder]

@sweat209

Than get rid of the UN.

There are many countries in Africa and Asia that would be human rights violations.

Well unfortunately human rights violations and lots of killings and suffering just does not justified genocide for UN to even talk about.

Most of Middle East in the state of war not to say killings, suffering, food and water shortage in many of the African countries.

If you can prove North Korea trying to kill it people and wipe them out to call it genocide than the only thing the UN will support is stronger embargo:eek::eek::eek: But that do nothing if countries sneak in and they look the other way.

The UN has proven time and again that it is a worthless organization particularly the security council with it’s permanent members which use their votes and vetoes to match their agendas rather than in the pursuit of world stability.