Worse, we’re losing serious credibility as anything other than being a pain in the rectum. Japan and South Korea must now question why they’re hosting over 100,000 military personnel between the two of them when we’re basically telling them every day “Sorry, pal - you’re on your own.” What the US has gotten out of that alliance was the ability to project power. It’s losing that now, and it’s not just NK that benefits, but also China and Russia.
Seems that little rocket man is about to do more missile testing for Christmas
Pentagon watching North Korea closely amid signs it may conduct another test | CNN Politics
New construction seen at missile-related site in North Korea
Satellite pics at the link.
Here’s why North Korea is a threat, and thanks to Trump’s bungled diplomacy, potentially an even bigger threat than it was before ‘detente’.
North Korea still hasn’t gotten what it wants, which is an ease of sanctions – we already know that, but it’s important because this is a major reason why it’s acting out.
In the past, North Korea has used its weapons programs to project strength and to send the message that it’s capable of anything. The one advantage the US had until maybe 12-24 months ago was the knowledge on both sides that if the US ever wanted to use military force as a way to eliminate the North Korean threat, it could do so, and while an outbreak of war would potentially be catastrophic for South Korea and Japan, the US could probably escape significant harm to its mainland.
Now? That is probably no longer operative. If North Korea wants to shoot missiles over Japan once a week, or if it wants to harass South Korea on the border, it can do so and there’s not much the US can do to make North Korea stop – nothing except do what I suggested in the beginning, which is to negotiate for an easing of sanctions in exchange for good behavior. But the US nuclear umbrella looks like it’s got some holes in it - and don’t think Japan won’t notice.
John Bolton thinks Trump’s approach to North Korea is a failure (3:49 CNN clip)
It’s already Christmas in North Korea. So the surprise can happen at any time.
In rare agreement with Bolton, time is indeed on the side of the proliferator, but not just in the sense that it allows NK (or Iran or anyone else) to develop weapons; it weakens leverage that we have to make an agreement that is on terms favorable (reasonable) to both parties.
There’s a difference between having an agreement in, say, 1998, or 2003, or even 2013, when the US can reach a constructive framework in which it demonstrates not only to its allies but potential foes as well that we can strike a balance between pressure (when truly necessary) and incentives to encourage constructive behavior and trust…and an agreement in 2020 or 2021 in which the US is basically forced to admit that its policies of pressure first, pressure only, unconditional disarming is a demonstrable failure. In the latter scenario, the US is a card player that overplays its hand and demonstrates to friends and foes alike that we don’t know what we’re doing.
Such a result forces partners like Japan, South Korea, and others to reevaluate their relationship with the United States. They have to ask whether the supposed advantages of relying heavily on the US for protection is worth it, and whether we’re really going to be there in the event that they need us. The US is powerful not just because it’s powerful but also because we can project power. And we’ve been able to project power because other countries have allowed us to use their territory and ports of call for military purposes. In short, Trump’s behavior with NK, with Russia, with Turkey, and with Iran are discrediting the US as a major world power. We’re losing the ability to project power. We’re in danger of creating a power vacuum - one that will be filled by one or more powers, and with powers that will neutralize what they consider to be irksome tendencies of the US, such as the occasional tendency to speak up about human rights.
I’ve wondered what benefit they could possibly get from humiliating Trump, which seems a little risky to me.
Nobody’s ever gonna want your carrot if they realize you never swing the stick.
I wouldn’t rule out the possibility that Trump ends up swinging his stick violently.
I remember on another thread people referring to Kim Jung Un as “crazy,” but although I tend to agree that Trump is probably war-averse, I simultaneously believe that Trump has little ability to calculate the consequences of his actions - which makes him dangerous.
It’s not Kim who is crazy or out of touch with reality; it’s more likely that our president is the crazy one, and the one crazy enough to start a war, even if by accident. It has been clear for some time that the Kim regime always had an endgame in mind when they were firing missiles over the Sea of Japan. So while Kim’s brazen and provocative, that endgame - lifting of sanctions - is evidence that they are actually somewhat sane. They can be reasoned with. You may not like doing business with the mafia, but it’s not so bad once you know how they operate and what they want.
It’s Trump, not Kim, who is unpredictable, who doesn’t really know what he wants, who has a very, very vague idea of what he wants to accomplish, and who has an equally vague understanding of the consequences of his behavior. Someone like that is much, much more likely to propose a peace process out of ignorance because he operates blithely under the assumption that he can just bullshit his way through the process the way he does real estate deals in New York or Florida. And when he awakens and realizes that he’s being mocked by Kim and that his intelligence is being mocked by someone like Bolton, he’s being set up for humiliation. And that same person is much, much likely to overreact and assume that he (well, our military) has infinite powers that it does not have to neutralize North Korea without regard for the consequences. He will care more about protecting his own ego than he will protecting the millions of people who stand to be harmed by his fake bravado.
Not sure if I was clear, but I meant Kim feels like he has to swing his stick occasionally for credibility purposes. Plus domestic consumption. Of course Trump experiences that same pressure, but you asked about Kim’s actions.
I’ve argued the same elsewhere 2 years ago, probably in this same thread. Though I think there’s a lot of merit to this argument, to me I see other factors having more weight than they once did:
[ol]
[li]The military establishment is a lot more accustomed to, skeptical of, and inured to, Trump’s tantrums.[/li][li]Trump is a great big chickenshit and everybody knows it.[/li][/ol]
You might argue that we’re in a more dangerous place than ever because Trump might not be 100% chickenshit, and NK might miscalculate. There is some merit to that. But given Trump’s record of bluster and backing down in these past 2 years, I feel there’s a strong argument that Trump is indeed 100% chickenshit and will not take any action that might damage a hair of his head, to say nothing of his re-election campaign.
If I had to make guesses at this point, I would guess NK would do some provocative things as they have in the past - provocative tests most likely, drone shootdown like Iran, maybe even a ship sinking or artillery barrage. Trump will bluster that Kim has lost his shot at a condo development, and will tear up the “agreement” on television. His base will declare victory and we’ll all move on to the next thing.
90 minutes left of Christmas in N. Korea. I guess they probably want to do whatever they plan to do during the day here in the US.
It could also be at the end of the year or the beginning of next year; IIRC, the detente unofficially ends at the end of this year.
or maybe their plan was to do something today but they are having technical problems. Rockets are hard, just ask Boeing.
That’s possible, too.
But it’s pretty clear that we’re about to go back to the pre-2018 behavior from North Korea - whether it’s tomorrow or next week or next month isn’t important.
Just like Trump, Kim wants to make sure everyone is paying attention to him, so he will make these announcements and maybe follow thru with them.
I thought it interesting that he made his promise as the impeachment in the house was revving up toward the inevitable - and maybe the ‘present’ was delayed until the articles are sent to the senate
“how dare you impeach a president in this heightened state of crisis with N.Korea - afterall, Only Trump can go there”
Meanwhile, Trump’s subdued reaction was priceless.
“Maybe it’s a vase”
Hell, his reaction - the same expression that he had on his face when he walked out with Putin in Helsinki - gives himself away. You can tell that even he knows he’s bullshitting himself and has no idea what he’s doing or talking about.
Experts say Little rocket man never halted efforts to build new weapons