I was reading that 2/3rds of American’s polled think this is a good idea. Honestly, I am not seeing it, but what say you 'dopers? Think it’s a good idea? Think anything will come out of it? Recently, Kim, in anticipation of this meetingmet in Beijing with President (for life) Xi to seemingly shore up his positions and coordinate for the big meeting with Trump. Russia has also put their oar in.
To me, this is yet another example of a huge mistake by the Trump team. Not only has this entire (mainly manufactured) drama seemingly brought the estranged countries and leaders of China and North Korea back together, it’s put China in a very good position to come out of these talks looking in command and control while the US looks weak and North Korea less crazy. Basically, what I see is North Korea asking for something that seems reasonable to anyone who hasn’t been following along in exchange for shelving their nuclear program (probably a complete withdrawal of US forces from South Korea as well as getting rid of the mutual defense treaty with the South), with China and Russia backing this up as a reasonable counter offer while making it clear that any offensive action by the US would be looked on with extreme disfavor by China and Russia and North Korea basically having justification to keep doing what they have been doing in the face of US aggression, but with the added bonus that Kim will have been the first leader of the North to bring a sitting US president to the table directly. He gains, North Korea gains, China gains and Russia gains (a bit), and the US basically loses for no change and no benefit towards us or South Korea. That’s how I see it anyway.
Trump, once again, is completely out of his element, and his team seems to be as clueless as he is to have allowed him to go down this path. But maybe I’m missing something here.
I think the odds of NK giving up nukes is approximately zero regardless, and the meeting (if it happens) will be little more than clumsy spectacle, as seems to be Trump’s only skill.
I’m open to the very slight possibility that shaking up the decades-long status quo could yield some positives, though I find it hard to imagine what they might be. Possibly Kim will do something equivalent to the Mariel Boatlift and release some of his prisoners to South Korea or the U.S. No matter what happens and even if nothing does, I’m confident Trump will claim an unprecedented success.
I’ve always disliked the idea that just meeting or talking is seen as a win for one side or the other. My ideal would be to keep the lines of communication open to everyone, even to countries like Iran and Cuba; it’s what’s said over those lines that’s important. We may have nothing to say to these other countries for long stretches of time, and they may say nothing that interests us, but to not listen is cowardly and to negotiate the terms for negotiations is nonsensical.
That said, I don’t think Trump has the diplomatic skill to reach any useful deal with North Korea, nor the administrative skill to get anyone else to do it for him.
It sounds like you’re suggesting that South Korea go it completely alone from now on, while North Korea gets to keep the full military backing of China and Russia. This does not strike me as a “reasonable” bargaining position from the North.
Considering how many of Kim’s prisoners have committed the crime of saying “I’m hungry”, I’m not sure that taking them in is a bad thing.
Nyeh, I see where you’re going with this, XT. But MacMillans quote of 'Jaw, Jaw is better than War, War" is always applicable until the last possible moment. I’d rather see us trying to work something out than just being bellicose.
And honestly, when Trump is over there chatting up Kim he’s not over here fucking something else more important up.
Did you miss the hate many Americans and Europeans have shown for People fleeing for their lives from the war in Syria and other places? For People fleeing from Hunger and unemployment in Africa?
They don’t want Brown People, or in this case, Asian People, coming and “taking” their wealth.
I’m calling a warning on that for attempted hijack, constanze. You are more than free to have and share your feelings on any number of topics. But in the future, please limit it to threads where such is on topic and appropriate to the discussion.
Nobody who has been paying attention will think this is reasonable. Nor will Trump agree to it.
And who gives a shit if China and Russia think this is reasonable? Maybe Putin will unleash the Russian Twitter-bots to try and troll the idea, but that isn’t going to affect anything with anybody who counts.
What you say about boosting NK’s prestige is true, but almost irrelevant. Kim isn’t going to do anything different whether he gets to sit at the table with the adults or not.
Negotiations aren’t always better than nothing, but nothing hasn’t worked so far. Negotiations probably won’t work either. Yes, Trump will tell us that this is a new beginning to bringing North Korea to the table of nations and all that. So? Kim will say he has brought the mighty US to its knees before him begging. So? He says that anyway, and nobody with any sense believes it.
This isn’t going to help, but neither will anything else. I don’t think it will do much harm either. As long as we’ve learned something since 1993.
You’d be surprised who cares. Basically, this plays right into China’s hands since it puts them in the center stage as a thoughtful mediator as well as a power that is controlling events on both sides. China gets to shift the narrative away from things happening at home and shows they are a power to be reckoned with as well as trusted. Man, Xi et al must be having trouble controlling their glee over the turn of events.
Also, this is going to make it interesting if Trump remembers he’s trying to put steel and other tariffs on China. I’m pretty sure China remembers and that they have orchestrated this whole little show to remind him about it.
It deflects from Russia’s own internal issues as well as what they are doing in the Ukraine and Syria. Russia gets less out of this since they aren’t a central player, but this is a chance for Putin et al to get some digs in against the US and remind the world they are still out there, plus as I said it takes attention (both domestic as well as international) off of places Putin would prefer it not be on.
I don’t think it’s irrelevant but YMMV. Kim has gotten to demonstrate that his actions and his nation are on the world stage and have to be taken seriously by the worlds largest hyperpower, and that for the first time a US President is having to come to him to negotiate. In addition, Kim has obviously been able to mend fences, at least somewhat with China (probably because China has been pretty unhappy with the things Trump et al have been doing), and that China is still backing North Korea. That’s HHHUUUUGGGGEEEE, as Trump would say.
I think this has done quite a bit of harm to the US and the US position world wide and that it continues to erode that position and standing. We look like idiots and fools as well as a rapidly fading power, and we have managed to build up China and North Korea and to an extent Russia at the same time.
The main danger is that besides for Trump being an idiot, he’s also eager to burnish his reputation as a deal-maker. So he’s eager to make any sort of deal just for the sake of having gotten a deal done. (You can see this in his role with laws and proposed laws, where his position seems to be “just put together something that can get through congress and I’ll sign it and take credit”.) So he will have a very strong bias in favor of making some sort of deal regardless of whether it’s a good deal or not, or - and this may be the most important part - whether the correct way to handle the NK situation is via “deals”.
I think what you’re missing is that no one on Trump’s team has the ability to control or educate him on any subject. So I don’t think you can fault anyone for “allow[ing]” Trump to do anything.
Your confidence is almost inspiring but it’s just as likely Trump will agree to (i.e. “fall for”) any number of things, claim success as a dealmaker for a few news cycles, and then just not follow through, so no harm done.
Which is exactly what China wants out of this and their entire reason for sponsoring the Kim regime.
No, he’s over there “fucking something…important up” e.g. our relations with not only a despotic nuclear-armed hermit state but also the increasingly delicate relations we have with both mainland China and South Korea, the latter of which should be a party to any discussions we have with the North Korean leadership seeing as how they will likely be the ones to be most affected by adverse consequences.
“Jaw, Jaw” is fine as long as it is diplomatic speak but if Trump has established anything definitively in his time as the chief executive, it is that he has no diplomatic sensibility whatsoever. He has managed to piss off or alienate every one of our significant European allies—some of them only days after being elected—and despite his constant whining about how the previous administration did not deal effectively with Russia, Iran, Syria, or North Korea, has now screwed the pooch with all four repeatedly. The only deals Trump seems to be able to make are non-disclosure and prenuptual agreements and even that isn’t working out so well for him.
Regarding making diplomatic overtures to an adversary, there is a time-honored way of doing this; by sending over professional diplomats educated in the culture and politics of the adversary, working out agreements and points of compromise months in advance, and then having the leaders meet & greet for the cameras to formalize the agreement. And it is done this way because diplomatic negotiations can take many months of focused, repetitive discussions and consideration while the president has dozens of issues and decisions on different topics to deal with every day. The president (and other world leaders) do not have the time, and typically the inclination, to be diplomats, which is why they employ experienced professionals in this role. If Trump believes he is going to walk in and Art of the Deal Kim Jong-un into capitulating and dismantling his nuclear program he is even more deluded than the Trump who believed that his inauguration was attended by people jammed elbow to asshole in the largest audience ever for a presidential inauguration.
All I can say is I hope this goes off without Trump stomping home in a tantrum and threatening unilaterial nuclear annihilation of everyone on the Korean peninsula in a fit of pique. Because even if he doesn’t mean it, or “Mad Dog” manages to talk him down from the precipice, just the threat will make the United States look even weaker and out of control.
Just remember what ol’ Jack Burton does when the earth quakes, and the poison arrows fall from the sky, and the pillars of Heaven shake. Yeah, Jack Burton just looks that big ol’ storm right square in the eye and he says, “Give me your best shot, pal. I can take it.”[RIGHT]—Jack Burton[/RIGHT]
People talked of world domination gradually shifting from U.S.A. to China during the 21st century. One of the biggest long-term effects of Trump’s Presidency is that that shift will be rapid rather than gradual. (The threat of Russian aggression is also getting a big boost.)
This is why the repudiation of TPP is a big loss for America. That agreement (which deliberately excluded China) was designed with the idea of curtailing China’s economic power. Countries happy to join TPP are now making deals with China instead. (Of course the Sandersistas share some of the blame for anti-TPP sentiment.)
North Korea aren’t giving up their nukes. Their nukes are how they will avoid an invasion, and how they will raise billions of dollars by selling nukes and nuclear technology overseas. Nukes are the best insurance policy the regime has to stay in power.
I don’t see the point in a meeting. Especially with Trump, who is in over his head.
It bothers me the way Fox acted like Obama meeting with Un was a horrible mistake, but now that a republican is president they are falling over themselves to say what a great idea it is.
Personally, I think Kissinger and Nixon got suckered when they went to China. And Trump is nowhere near as smart as either of them and nobody in his administration is filling that void.
So I think the best we can hope for is Kim, Xi, and Putin score a propaganda victory over Trump. The worst will be a second Munich where Trump hands over South Korea, Taiwan, the South China Sea, and the Kuril Islands in exchange for a promise of some magic beans.