I think it’s a terrific idea, as long as it’s held in a place like the Bermuda Triangle.
Respectfully, I think this misreads events. If China and North Korea were working in harmony, they would have put that on display by making Kim’s trip to Beijing a state visit and showing him off on the same stage as Xi. Instead, summoning Kim and forcing him to come and go unannounced comes across as punishment for having allowed the US to get out in front. Frankly, it suggests that the Chinese are irritated about playing catch-up to the point where they don’t care that the rest of the world knows it.
I don’t know whether anything will come of these meetings, but I never would have predicted that all the trash-talking would lead to meetings to begin with. I don’t think I have any basis to try to guess what will come next.
Clinton opposed the TPP as well. It was gone no matter who got elected.
I’m not seeing the connection you’re making. XT didn’t say that China and North Korea were working in harmony. He said China was showing its power. Treating North Korea as an equal partner wouldn’t support that. Treating North Korea as a lackey would.
Yeah. Even before the Trump phenomenon, there was a Generalized Trumpism problem that led to poor Congressional decisions. But even then TPP would have had a good chance if it hadn’t been negotiated by the alleged Kenyan Anti-Christ. Note that JEB!, Rubio and Kasich all indicated support for TPP despite the Kenyan.
Let’s not hijack the thread to discuss She-Who-Should-No-Longer-Be-Named, but she was for the pact before she was against it. :smack:
But yeah, to paraphrase Gaius Cassius Longinus (as quoted by the Earl of Oxford)
The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our Trump, but in ourselves.
What can Trump promise that wouldn’t have to be ratified by Congress under its treaty powers?
That’s not rhetorical. I think that’s an important question to answer before we can make any guesses about what will happen. I don’t think that any stupid things Trump promises will make it through Congress. So it would have to be stuff that would not involve Congress which are a threat.
I thought it was pretty clear from what he’s written in this thread, but if I’m wrong, and we’re all in agreement that China is angry at North Korea, then OK. But they shouldn’t have to be angry, and the fact that they have to discipline their lackey because he’s been off exploring deals without them doesn’t make the Chinese look strong, in my view. It looks reactive and shows their control to be cracking.
Food aid, changes to military policy (e.g., less wargaming), loosening of sanctions. Given the way the proposed summit is polling, however, I think Congress would easily get behind anything that looks like reduced tension.
I don’t think it’s an anger issue. I think it’s a prestige issue. China wants to show that it can get things done even when America can’t. That sends a message to other countries about which superpower they should listen to.
If it were done carefully with diplomats that are well versed on the politics and issues of the region, and actual expert negotiators I would probably be fine with it. As it is Trump has fired anyone in the state department with useful expertise, and believes his own lies that he is the bestest deal maker ever, so best case scenario Kim gets our cow and Trump comes away with some shiny magic beans. This is particularly the case since Trump is not nearly as interested in protecting the national interests of the United States of America than he is in supporting his own ego and currying temporary favor with his base, and everyone going into the negotiation knows this.
Worst case scenario Trump uses his standard bully and threaten method of negotiation, miscalculates Kim’s response, and both sides escalate to save face until Jaw Jaw leads to War War.
I like the idea of talks if they can lead to something substantive.
My concern is that Trump agreed to the meeting hastily because he’s convinced that he’s a deal maker and equally convinced that his pressure is going to win some concessions. In reality, I think Kim Jung Un is setting up Trump for major disappointment, mainly because what “denuclearization” means to North Korea isn’t what “denuclearization” means to the United States. Kim built his nuclear program to give him bargaining power. There’s no way he will completely and irreversibly dismantle that kind of leverage. He might agree to suspend his program and up to a certain point, reduce his arsenal. But he didn’t build his bargaining chip just so Trump could take it away.
This is particularly sensitive timing, given that Trump just hired John Bolton. Bolton is absolutely not messing around when he talks about a first strike on North Korea - he absolutely would advocate following through on the idea. Bolton’s radical hawkishness might actually put Trump in the rare position of having to be the more rational of two people in the same room. Bolton is a deep state subscriber to the idea of American foreign policy which has for years been driven by the assumption that pressure and leverage will force countries to capitulate to its will. In some cases, that’s exactly what happens. But in other cases, it can force our foes to dig in even deeper, as in the case of Vladimir Putin, and the Kim regime.
It’s a security issue. China’s aim is to gradually reduce American influence in Asia but this will take time. Instability caused by North Korea gives the US a reason to remain politically and militarily involved in the region and it could convince Japan that it needs a more offensive-minded and interventionist military of its own.
This is not a comforting thought.
Stranger
Definitely neither party sees the China/North Korea relationship as equal partners. North Korea definitely would like the relationship to be less one sided and less taken for granted…a lot of the antics North Korea has been up to in the last couple of years that has annoyed China so much is to demonstrate that they aren’t a complete puppet. However, at this time North Korea is reaching out to China to shore up and bolster it’s negotiating position wrt this anticipated meeting with the US and Trump, and China is playing along because they want to demonstrate that they are still the power to arbitrate this issue and make something happen if it’s going to happen. It’s also a slap on the face wrt the US and Trump, especially with Trump’s recent idiotic tariffs…something to demonstrate that there are many layers to all of these issues and interconnections that Trump definitely doesn’t grasp.
You are misreading what I’m saying. I never said that China and North Korea were living and working in harmony. This trip was about North Korea reaching out to try and bridge some of the gap and distance that has happened over the last few years, and to bolster North Korea’s position wrt the US and the theoretical talks. North Korea was in a bad position with basically everyone against their nuclear and missile tests, so they needed to take steps to not be completely isolated. And in this case, a rapprochement worked for both parties…both got a lot out of this.
I think you are wrong that China feels irritated they have to play catch-up…I think they have been positioned themselves pretty well in all of this and I think they are generally pretty happy about where things are at right now. They certainly were irritated at North Korea for pushing things as they did and not listening when they were warned to back off, but they have been able to basically play both sides against each other and come out looking the best overall in this mess. And whether it goes well or ill (assuming the talks even happen) China gets a boost that they really need.
You and I must be living on different planets.
China is basically impotent when it comes to North Korea. It cannot cajole sense into KJU, and it can’t up its economic pressure to much for fear of having North Korea collapse and leave a huge mess on China’s doorstep. North Korea is to China as a meth-using dropout teenager is to his codependent parents. There’s no win-win for China in any scenario. There’s no China pulling any strings in this scenario. China has hitched its wagon to a tiger, and there’s no good way to disentangle itself now.
There’s no warming of relations between China and North Korea right now, as far as I can tell. KJU took a train trip. On China Daily’s English website right now, the firing of the VA secretary is a bigger story than the meeting of Xi and Kim. At this moment, on the Chinese language website, Xi’s meeting with the Preisdent of Namibia is a bigger story.
If I were in China’s leadership, the issues I want front and center are: 1. the anticorruption campaign (and its associated purge of political opponents), 2. economic reform, 3. China’s strength in the South China Sea.
Trump meeting with Kim would be a good idea with pretty much any other President, but Trump is incompetent so it’s at best a waste of time.
Almost certainly true. 
Again, I didn’t say that China was pulling North Korea’s strings like a puppet. In fact, I specifically said that this was one of the reasons China was pretty annoyed with KJU and his regime because they weren’t falling into line in the last few years and backing off as Beijing has told them too. That said, North Korea is very useful to China, and this trip by KJU has been more helpful than you seem to think. I have no doubt that for local Chinese citizens consumption it’s not that big a deal, but that doesn’t mean it’s not a big deal more broadly. I believe that China will use this in terms of some concessions from North Korea and in concessions they will try and extract from the US as well as in generally internationally to buff their reputation as a major player in the region. YMMV of course, and since our planets are so different this wouldn’t be a surprise.
Certainly, for local consumption that would be all good stuff (from the CCPs perspective), and even internationally if I were China I would downplay it…it’s nothing special, of course KJU came to China to talk to Xi about some stuff, nothing unusually here. Oh, you guys want to meet? No worries, we don’t really care that much but we might be able to help. Let’s talk about those tariffs…
As another poster up thread said, we have diplomats for this sort of thing. A US president, even a non-idiotic and competent one wouldn’t or shouldn’t meet with KJU under any circumstances. It would just be less of a disaster if it was someone with a clue and some control than it’s likely to be with Trump.
In what way is North Korea useful? IMHO, as a buffer between the US forces permanently stationed in ROK, and for not much more.
What is it that China wants from North Korea?
On this I do agree, that Trump is so totally out of his league that he will very likely give something to China in exchange for nothing.
I totally disagree that a competent US President should never meet with North Korea’s leader. However, a competent US President would be smart to hold out the meeting as a carrot that can only be obtained if progress is made on other issues, like a hard freeze to nuclear weapon production and missile testing, and probably some other conditions too. Kim clearly really wants to be taken seriously by the US, and that makes a summit a point of leverage that the US could use. Trump did not, as best as I can tell, make any use of that leverage, further proving that he is quite possibly the worst negotiator that has ever been in Washington, DC (I’m including interns on that score, too). However, at the end of the day, we don’t need to talk with our friends, we need to talk with our enemies, so I won’t belabor those common sense criticisms any further.
China is not completely impotent. They’re North Korea’s largest economic partner - that’s not insignificant. The economic pressure on the Kim regime can never be ignored. It’s one thing when North Korea civilians starve; it’s another when North Korean soldiers starve and begin to suffer – and ultimately defect. The pressure of sanctions is real, and China alleviates that pressure.
Oh, it’s more useful to them than just that. North Korea allows China to play on a larger stage and as a bargaining chip to use with and against the US. It’s also useful internally, as it’s a good example of how much worse things could be than under the CCP. Xi is a good example when compared against lil’ Kimmy 3.0 (or the Orange Haired one for that matter).
To act more like the client state they are and to allow China to set the beat, most likely. Will they get all that? Probably not. But I bet North Korea will play nicer than they have been wrt China’s wishes. There is still a lot of factional differences within China itself over North Korea, but my WAG is that Xi and his factions are getting on top of that…which means North Korea’s options are narrowing if they don’t want to be completely isolated. But really, China just wants North Korea in their sphere of influence and a thorn in the US’s side, as well as something they can use to distract South Korea, Japan and the US as well as other regional and international players and also to demonstrate the same thing I said about the internal stuff…isn’t the CCP and Xi preferable to North Korea and KJU? Of course they are.
Well, maybe our planets aren’t so different in all respects after all. 
But bringing out the big guns of a US presidential meet should be for something more than for something like this. I disagree that Kim wants to talk seriously…I think he’s trying to take some of the pressure off and kick the can down the road until he’s more ready.
If Kim leaves the country to meet with Trump, what is the possibility of a coup d’etat? He comes back and his key doesn’t fit the gate at the border any more?