I’d say it’s essentially zero, though maybe a very small probability. About the same as a coup to depose Trump and perhaps trade him to North Korea in return for…well, I can’t think of anything low value enough to trade for that they would agree too. Maybe in return for Denis Rodman’s ball ring or something that he accidentally left behind on his most recent trip.
I think the importance of the Xi-Kim meeting being held initially in secret should not be overlooked. That suggests that the Chinese have so little control over Kim that they could not publicize the meeting until afterward, i.e., when they could be sure that he would cooperate and play nice for the cameras. I don’t see that that makes China look good or that they would be happy with the world knowing that. Nor does it suggest that North Korea reached out to China (as opposed to being summoned).
I don’t see how China played both sides against one another. China looks like it’s scrambling to stay relevant. They got a show of unity from this meeting with Kim, but that’s kind of the minimum expectation. I’m not sure there’s any evidence that anything concrete came from it.
The Chinese kept his father’s visits secret until after he left.
Why did Kim take a train to Beijing? Seems that it would saved a lot of time and required a lot less logistics to fly.
NK is not giving up their nukes. Forget about it. Best the US can do is have them freeze development.
That is a fair point, but at the same time China isn’t willing to cut off petroleum supplies that would severely hurt the DPRK. China,
I disagree. Gamblers have control of their bargaining chips. China has no control over DPRK, which has led to their substantial changes in policy toward them over the last year.
Maybe things have changed, but the short time I lived in China, nobody really talked about DPRK. And I would suspect that no Chinese would really be concerned about the economy in North Korea, because after all, they are just filthy Koreans, while they are part of the Middle Kingdom.
I don’t think China has any illusions anymore that they can treat DPRK like a client state. Not in decades, really. That sounds like Trump level of sophistication of thinking: “Zhi-na can’t just tell Kim what to do - so I’m going to tariff Zhi-na until they fix it!”
Again, I think China thinks of DPRK as a huge pain in the ass that they’d rather not deal with, not rubbing their hands together and enjoying what a basket case they are.
Certain truths are universal.
How do y’all think this brilliant Trump strategic move will play out?
North Korea is a buffer against South Korea and US influences, lest Chinese folks find out how good the South Koreans have it being pals with the US of A.
There are large numbers of Chinese tourists that go to South Korea (Japan, Australia, Canada, and the US too for that matter, not to mention Europe) so I don’t think that’s the case. What they DO see is how bad things are in North Korea and how comparatively good they have it compared to that hell hole.
The difference is most parents, no matter how frustrated they are with their child, aren’t going to resolve the problem by putting a bullet into the back of their child’s head. China would not hesitate to have Kim killed and his regime replaced if they thought he was becoming too much trouble. I’m sure they already have several NK generals on the Chinese payroll just in case.
Is Trump aware there are two Koreas?
It’s not clear that he is aware that there are seperate northern and southern hemispheres on the planet. Expecting him to understand the nuances of geopolitics such as the existence individual countries beyond “United States”, “Russia”, and “Ghina” is probably a bridge too far. He still thinks the young boy whose hand he refused to shake was from the “Jormanny” neighborhood of Washington, D.C.
He knows the shit out of meatloaf, though. “And the meatloaf was good!”, says the beached whale who clearly eats everything in sight.
Stranger
Thanks, XT.
The guys who work in the factories that are fenced in travel?
Regimes like Kim’s (like those of Saddam and Assad) are obsessed with power and survival. Over the decades, they have undoubtedly installed multiple tripwires that are in place to detect even the slightest hint of a coup - to the point of triggering false alarms that end up killing people whose only offense might have simply been not being deferential enough or looking at Kim the wrong way. If two important people meet and speak in secret, there’s a chance Kim will know about it, and those two who spoke in secret will be dealt with. If someone whispers something negative about Kim, he will know about it, and there will be consequences. Everyone around Kim lives with that fear of being labeled disloyal. I highly doubt a coup will happen - not unless the situation is so dire that you essentially have mass defections among lower and middle ranks of the military. Now that might do it. Once the structure of his power visibly collapses, Kim has problems. But not until then.
According to Escape From Camp 14, informing is a popular pastime in North Korean prison camps.
On the basis that a gratuitous assertion may be equally gratuitously denied:
Nuh-uh.
North Korea is completely dependent on China for the vast majority of their hard currency and trade. The fact that Kim has been willing to sacrifice his people in droves to defy China is not equivalent to China having zero leverage against North Korea. Another factor, in the past at least, is that China (even the CCP) isn’t some monolithic entity, all moving in lockstep. There are various factions in the CCP and in China, and some supported North Korea either openly or under the table, transferring technology or hard currency in exchange for natural resources. That has narrowed somewhat, however, under Xi’s grand ‘corruption’ witch hunt (which is mainly aimed at Xi and his factions enemies).
It’s way to complex for a Trump level of sophistication.
I disagree for the reasons I’ve said. No sense beating a dead horse, we disagree. Not the first time. 
China may not necessarily control NK, but they still have considerable influence. A country’s largest trading partner will always have influence, particularly over the longer term. The reason that China has had seemingly less influence over North Korea in the last decade has to do with North Korea’s sense of urgency in acquiring its own nuclear capabilities.
Are you saying you don’t believe the Chinese government would have somebody killed?
No. I’m saying what you posted is unsubstantiated speculation that is very likely wrong.
Peace through strength works, Reagan proved it. I think North Korea is willing to change their behavior a little in exchange for some sanctions lifted. I’m not saying they will give up their nuclear weapons; instead, they will stop firing missiles over Japan and making saber-ratting statements
The meeting is a good thing.