Perhaps. But it might also create a “rally around the flag” effect that would increase support for Kim Jong Un.
You mean, like the 9/11 attack on the Pentagon led to the collapse of the Bush II regime?
U.S. military action against North Korea which is opposed by South Korea, and in which South Korea pays a price in lives and wealth, might fracture the US-South Korea alliance.
These statements display a profound ignorance of History, Geopolitics and Human Nature. I’m very grateful that you’re not in charge.
It’s certainly not as sophisticated as the ROK’s, the US’s, or even Japan’s. On the other hand, their offensive capability isn’t negligible. The DPRK knows full well that they’re not going to be attacked by the US, by the ROK, nor even by their main ally PRC. What they do know is that keeping about half of the ROK’s citizenry under the gun is a good bargaining chip.
They don’t consider themselves militarily superior to everyone else. The propaganda asserting otherwise is just that, propaganda, and is mostly for domestic consumption. Their government and their military–effectively the same thing since the institution of the “military first” policy–know that they won’t last in a war against the ROK and the US. That’s yet another reason why they keep their big guns, not missiles, targeting Seoul and its environs. The missiles are just attention-grabbers, bargaining chips.
You do know that North Korea borders South Korea, right? Even if the DPRK did have the technology to bring down a missile in flight (quite unlikely they do), there’s no way they’d be able to down one launched from literally right next to their territory.
About twenty-five million people would prefer that you not be the one deciding on what chances be taken with their lives, no doubt. And let’s not forget that if the DPRK ever does decide it’s in their best interests to attack South Korea, Seoul and its environs will be toast.
Who’s allowing them to build nukes? They’re doing it on their own with even their main ally telling them it’s not a good idea. The weapon-rattling is to attract attention and is their tried-and-true method of gaining concessions from other countries, such as the US, the ROK, and the PRC.
That’s not a fact yet. They can’t deliver a nuke anywhere.
Evidently you didn’t glean a lot while there. The ROK, and Seoul in particular, do not “live in constant fear of attack”. The ROK government knows full well that the combined forces of the UN Command and the ROK will stave off an actual attack from the DPRK. The PRC also is quite committed to their idea of “stability on the Korean peninsula,” meaning that the PRC will withdraw all support for the DPRK if they attack the South. You might recall that South Korea and the PRC have a bit of trade going on between those two countries.
As intended.
That would have taken a colossal lack of comprehension of maps, geography, directions, and a few other things to have the things “inadvertently” land in Seoul. Since they weren’t nuclear devices, though, and were just test missiles, assuming your scenario, the actual damage would likely have been slight. North Korea has already done worse than that in quite recent memory. I refer you to the ROKS Cheonan (PCC-722) and Yeonpyeongdo.
That has nothing to do with the issue you raised in that same paragraph. Anyway, the brainwashing and other measures are simply to keep the domestic population under control. What would you have the ROK do? If the ROK attacks, then Seoul and its environs are in for quite a shelling.
Outside interference such as you suggest with that status quo would mean an attack on about half the population of South Korea. Unlike you, the leadership–military and civilian–of South Korea seems to be well aware of that fact.
Zero. There is no chance of a popular uprising.
First off: You don’t know KJE is actually unstable. Next: Nobody is really sure that KJE is the one actually in control, that he’s not a figure-head. Third: As mentioned already, the DPRK cannot deliver nukes anywhere yet. Finally: There’s this big ol’ country on the other side of DPRK; that country is the PRC. They’re not exactly small potatoes. And the PRC is very dedicated to the concept of “stability on the Korean peninsula”.
In short: dolphinboy hasn’t a clue about either Korea.
There is no magical hold. There is a lot of orchestrated public display, mostly for the benefit of governments outside NK. The hold is much more simple, and well understood. Tried and tested through many totalitarian regimes of all political colours. Fear. The people of NK are no more or less stupid than anywhere else. You can be sure that a clear understanding of their situation is in the minds of most citizens. As is the personal threat concomitant with voicing it.
The internal rhetoric that the people are fed includes the idea that NK is under constant immediate threat from the outside, and that pre-eminence given to the military is the only possible way for the country that does not involve it being overrun and enslaved. Dropping a cruise missile onto them would probably do little more than provide clear evidence of the motives of a belligerent USA and feed the propaganda machine.
It is a brittle regime - they all are. But such regimes won’t fall apart gracefully while the old guard - those military officers who took part in the war, and grew to power under the regime, have gone. The new generations tend to not have the ties and fears of the old, and it is very difficult to keep a regime continuing. It is hard to train insanity and the loyalties forged in war. The trick is when enough people are in power that really would prefer not to execute their colleagues for personal gain. Spain made a bloodless transition. As did the USSR. But it is a matter of when the time comes. NK is going to be harder, but I suspect when it comes, it will be quick, and no-one will expect it.
North Korea’s leadership seems to realize that. Thus the concept of songbun. Someone with a lower songbun than you is simply not your colleague. And depending on how far down the songbun scale someone is, one barely registers as human–called “hostile class” by officialdom. With the changes in the North’s economy, songbun has decreased in importance but it’s still a big deal.
So your solution to preventing war on the Korean peninsula is to start a war on the Korean peninsula?
Seriously, though; force of arms is what one is trying to avoid in the first place, is it not? You may have heard the term ‘diplomacy’ once or twice in your travels. This ‘diplomacy’ has apparently been a contributing factor to the lack of full-scale war between the Koreas in more than fifty years.
Yeah, I know; it’s about as exciting as watching paint dry, and diplomacy doesn’t have all that impressive hardware that goes ‘bang’. But still.
Thanks for posting that. Fascinating concept. Amazing that such a thing can exist to this date.
Back to the OP- I’m sure the US has the capability to overcome whatever defenses that NK has. That being said, it would serve no useful purpose. We’d run the risk of provoking China, the NK would very likely retaliate against the South, and we’d kill innocents in the process. It would be a very foolish move.
I have to admit some minor curiosity in how it would play out if things went hot. I have that luxury, being some 10,000 km away.
[QUOTE=el_Kabong]
and diplomacy doesn’t have all that impressive hardware that goes ‘bang’.
[/QUOTE]
Well, that all depends on the proclivities of the individual ambassador(s) considered, does it not ? 
[QUOTE=Monty]
And the PRC is very dedicated to the concept of “stability on the Korean peninsula”.
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This. And I’ll add that the PRC is 1) increasingly weary of its “ally” making an ass of itself on a regular basis and b) starving refugees traipsing across their southern border illegally. Best Korea is very much China’s Mexico in that regards.
I honestly wonder if during my lifetime (which started in the early 80s FWIW, but I’m a heavy smoker) we won’t see China call it quits and lay the smackdown themselves. Maybe even annex it altogether - although *that *I would strongly doubt. On account of it’s a complete shitheap that makes East Germany look like Switzerland.
But if they did, hey, they’re the up-and-coming superpower, they get to do a little adventurous “nation building”. We’ve all been there, don’t be all judge-y !
Damn skippy you are! It makes much more sense for the West to determine when the next nuclear war is going to start. I’m sure that will turn out much better for everyone. Next time Putin mouths off we should fire one of our missiles at Moscow just to show him that we can.
Yeah, this is pretty much the point I don’t get.
To prevent war, we start a war. As long as we’re not the ones directly in the line of fire, we can sweep the casualties under “tragic but necessary costs”, right?
I was just in Seoul a couple months ago visiting extended family. I’m not sure where you saw these worn down, fearful people. The only worn down people I saw were the people working 80 hour weeks.
The percentage of South Koreans who live in Seoul or in the surrounding area has increased since the Korean War, not decreased. And much of the major infrastructure and industry of the country is based around Seoul. Those are hardly the actions of a people constantly fearful of attack.
dolphinboy, this is hardly the first time you’ve brought up the concept of a pre-emptive first strike on North Korea. You’ve beaten this drum multiple times. For years now.
And been given the same explanations in those threads you’ve been given here, which have directly contradicted things you assert.
Is there something you think has changed? Or a sudden change in the psychology of the average citizen of Seoul?
ummmmm…
You may be 10000 km away from Korea…
But you’re only a few inches away from your Samsung Galaxy 5, or whatever.
You may not care about 25 million residents of Seoul…but I betcha you care about the sim chip in your smartphone.
Your curiosity won’t be so minor when you and all your friends can’t buy cell phones, because the company doesnt exist anymore. .
I’d love to see something along the lines of “The PRC Communist Party announces it’s merger with the Communist Party of the DPRK and welcomes the Chairman of the DPRK! The Chairman and his staff will move offices to Beijing so that the Great Leader may facilitate the merger of our two glorious parties!”
Hopefully followed 2 years later by “The Communist Party of the PRC regrets to announce the passing of our beloved Chairman of the DPRK.”
Never gonna happen, but I can fantasize.
On the other hand, it might be Blackberry’s chance to get back in the game! Let the missiles fly!
Nevertheless, the situation holds a certain dark intrigue, promising a rapid violent political realignment of something I’d accepted as normal since I was a kid, similar in some vague ways to the collapse of East Germany, but ramped up.
It’s a Galaxy Note II, by the way.
Yes, thank you for posting that. It explains a lot about the control that North Korea exerts on its citizens. The loose categories western societies place on its citizens are bad enough, but to have your life graded to that detail in a fairly arbitrary system would be kind of crushing no matter what grade you ended up with.
Yep, if endless talking is the alternative to war: Please, let’s chat.