If there was a referendum in Northern Ireland, what percentage of the vote would be for seccession with the United Kingdom? Given that the Catholic population increases at a greater rate than the Protestant population, how long will it be before there is a majority of people in Northern Ireland who want to seccede?
Perhaps I’m pessimistic, but a Northern Ireland referendum will likely be as peaceful as Kansas’ attempt to decide the slavery issue on its own in 1856.
The question was hypothetical.
It’s also unanswerable. The problem is, of course, that you can’t equate “Catholic” with “wants to secede” - although there is a remarkably strong correlation between the two.
Probably the most important factor in NI’s future is that the share of the population that votes for nationalist parties has increased steadily (up to 42.7% at the last Westminster elections), and there is nothing so far to suggest any imminent reverse or slowing down of this trend - in fact, it’s accelerated in the past decade. If it continues there will be a nationalist majority within the next generation or two.
Unionists (those who don’t insist this trend will reverse itself, that is) comfort themselves with the belief that a substantial portion of those who vote for nationalist parties wouldn’t actually vote to secede from the Union if it came right down to it. But the truth of the matter is it’s anyone’s guess.
This page is an excellent resource on the subject.