Isandlwana was a battle won by the Zulu not the people of Lesotho. In fact the Zulu were the empire of warmongering colonialists that the people of Lesotho fled from. There’s a reason their kingdom is surrounded by really steep mountains on all sides.
Countries often impose tariffs to protect their own strategic interests and to prevent “dumping” by other countries.
For example: The UK wants to maintain some steel production, but it’s more expensive here than in China, so without tariffs, cheap Chinese steel would put our steel industry out of business.
MAGANascar!
Yeah. Tariffs as a protective measure can make sense; the perfect abstract “free market” does not and never will exist, and plenty of nations try to slant things in their fashion. And that’s ignoring matters of national security.
But that’s not the same as thinking that slapping tariffs on everyone left and right will actually profit you; that’s knowingly taking a loss in return for a non-market reason.
It’s much, much stupider than that. It’s a formula - [Trade Deficit]/[Exports to country] is what Trump declared as “their tariffs on us”, and then we divide that in half for a “discounted reciprocal tariff”.
The problem is that Madagascar is really poor, so the trade deficit (Imports minus exports) is basically equal to exports, because imports is almost 0. So the Trump calculated “tariffs placed by Madagascar on the US” is almost 100%; divide that by 2, and you get 47%.
(The reason that some countries are higher than 50% is that this BS calculated number is added onto any real tariffs).
We’re literally at the Duck Soup phase of history:
Rufus: And now, members of the cabinet, we’ll take up old business.
Cabinet member: I wish to discuss the tariff.
Rufus: Sit down, that’s new business. No old business? Very well, then we’ll take up new business.
Cabinet member: Now about that tariff.
Rufus: Too late! That’s old business already.
I like what one of the local radio talk show hosts said this morning.
I have a trade deficit with my supermarket. I give them cold, hard cash and all get back is food!
Having high tariffs leaves open the ability to wave them for the right price paid to the person who can make exceptions.
How justification for the tariffs happens is sort of irrelevant.
Tariffs are a tool every country uses to manage their own protectionist needs. If a country needs to protect (for example) the cheese industry, then they’ll tariff imported cheese as much as they can manage, without getting slapped with a retaliatory tariff on milk (used to make cheese).
So there are always tariffs everywhere, driven by a country’s analysis of how much they can get away with protecting their own industry without provoking too many reciprocal tariffs.
Trump’s reasoning seems to be entirely this: if we have a 40% trade deficit with a country, then they must be somehow tariffing us 40%, so we’re going to tariff them 40% to gain “fairness”.
In addition to the retaliation, Trump seems to think these tariffs could be an unrealized source of revenue to replace income tax. He’s gotten the too-cute-by-half idea of an “External Revenue Service”. Because he’s a shitty businessman, his only idea for how to fund things is “squeeze someone else until they pay for it”.
So basically, it’s retribution against other countries, trying to earn revenue off this retribution, and abolishing the IRS in favor of the ERS. The thinking is beyond stupid, but that’s what the thinking is.
I’ve said this before. He thinks he’s found the magical perfect tool of capitalism. He can just say, “Give me this much money!”, and they have to give it to you. It’s even better than a casino!
Except he forgets that the “customers” aren’t a captive audience. They can seek out better deals elsewhere, or choose to do without.
So, yeah, touching on that.
Ostensibly, China should hate Trump. But that’s looking at China as though it was Mexico, with no greater desire than to be a vassal state of the United States. If we stop being their patron then…sadness.
But that’s not China’s ambition.
The US sidelines itself through self-sanctioning and, suddenly, you have a multitude of gaps in the market that are waiting to be plugged.
China has developed the ability to produce high end hardware, the government has near authoritarian ability to shift the economy and force production as they will. It’s quite likely that as the US bows out of supplying our top exports - high end electronics and machinery, pharmaceuticals, weapons, soy, etc. - China steps in to just fill those needs.
It’s like the top athlete in a sport deciding that he can take a few years off, and expect to be able to come back in and continuing to dominate. That’s just not how it works.
The big picture is that most large economies have some targeted tariffs, and some subsidized industries, but most imports to most countries have little to no tariff. So when you calculate the average tariff that countries put in US goods, it winds up being something like 3.1%, wayy less than is being claimed here.
But – it’s true that America is slightly more free trade than the average country.
So, when you calculate the average tariff America puts on imports, it comes out as something like 2.6% (I can’t be arsed to re-google this stuff…the point is, we’re talking small numbers and small differences).
So, in a sane world, a grown-up president could have made a case for something like reciprocal tariffs, where you ensure that countries that have comparatively large targeted tariffs on the US are met with something comparable.
It would be pretty complex to implement though, it’s not always easy to find something comparable. And it would hardly make any change to anything…which is infinitely superior to what Trump’s done.
Maybe he will then whine about how people aren’t purchasing American goods anymore due to boycotts and reciprocal tariffs, since, according to Elon at least, exercising your freedom of choice in your economic life is tantamount to terrorism.
Fear, not hate. A lunatic who hates them has a nuclear arsenal. One who cares nothing for his fellow citizens, so the Chinese nuclear deterrent has far less chance of working; what does Trump care if millions of Americas die? They aren’t him, so their lives are of no value. Their burning corpses are just fuel for Trump’s profit and glory. And China unlike the US feels no compulsion to consider the US the “good guy” who would never do such a thing. If they aren’t afraid of Trump they are much stupider than I think they are.
If it looks like China is going to end up eclipsing the US and thus outshine Trump it’s entirely possible that he’ll just decide to kill them all out of sheer spite. And if he doesn’t, the white nationalist fascists he’s putting into power will probably do it after he’s dead, sooner or later.
And even purely economically Trump is likely to plunge the world into a new Great Depression. Even if China comes out of it relatively ahead, that doesn’t mean they’ll enjoy the intervening decade or two of poverty.
I think that Xi Jinping likes to think of himself as a person who measures achievements on a generational scale, not by business quarters.
And if the average citizen doesn’t appreciate that in the meanwhile… Well, nation before self.
Which is still not that long when the damage is likely to be generational in scale if a depression, or permanent in case of a nuclear war. The US has become an existential threat to China.
They alll say that, but their first priority is preservation of their own individual power. That’s not a generational effort, it’s very much a day-to-day thing, especially with a US president who seems to delight in pure chaos agency.
The US has always had tariffs. They have declined over time in accordance to what we agreed to via treaty. He’s a chart showing average US tariffs over time, from Paul Krugman (who won a Nobel for his work on international trade):
Here’s a comparison of US tariffs pre-Trump vs the rest of the world:
This chart plots tariffs across all countries. Canada had a free trade agreement with the US, so presumably the tariffs that the US faced with Canada were a lot lower than 3.4%.
Overall the US was on the low side, though Japan, Switzerland, and Taiwan were still lower. If Trump set our tariff rates equal to foreign tariff rates for each country it would be an incredibly complex undertaking because there are thousands of goods. But it would be much milder than the tariffs imposed this month.
Short answer to the OP: It’s bad to start a trade war. That’s what people worldwide are angry about. Because trade wars can lead to recessions in the short run and inefficiency in the long run.
Also, the US is shooting itself in both feet. Boosting tariffs to 20%+ makes no sense.
Right. As I say, an argument could have been made for reciprocations on particular countries in nuanced ways but:
- That would have taken actual work
- It wouldn’t have made that much difference to anything. Tariffing a few items imported from India wouldn’t make a dent, positive or negative, in the US economy.
The fact is, the US is the world’s wealthiest country because of the mechanisms of open trade and, yes, outsourcing the production of cheaper-made goods that have been a fundamental part of the post-war world economy. For decades, many countries have been reducing tariffs trying to emulate America’s success story.
The one good thing about all this is that at least it’s a kind of reckoning. The stupid economic myths that millions believe (and got Trump in the white house) are driving head on towards the brick wall of reality.
Not the best example, since in fact the last UK steelworks was sold to a Chinese company, which is closing them down because they aren’t economical:
It’s more expensive here because of energy prices, not labour costs, btw. Just terrible decision making all around.