That’s a very dubious claim. You’re basically saying that the model only “works” when you have data to fit it to. If it makes no reliable predictions, it’s worthless.
I don’t want to start a hijack on the subject. We already had an extensive one recently. Price action does make prediction, but like any trading system it isn’t perfect. However, one reason to have confidence in it is how well trading instruments across different markets follow price action rules fairly well. A lot of professional traders (I’m not a professional but I do some short term trading) use it for a reason. If I build a model of something and it doesn’t fit past data well, then that’s a good reason to reject it as a model. In fact, backchecking it is the first thing you should do. If it fits past data well, and is more useful than guessing for making a prediction, which price action has shown itself to be, then it can be useful.
In this case, TSLA is in breakout from a downwards channel, but there is insufficient data to conclude it is a reversal and now in an upwards channel. It could fall back into the downwards channel or trade sideways, or confirm the upwards channel. It is too early to say. My gut, not price action rules, tells me it will not sustain this upward momentum because the fundamentals of the company are not there to support the price.
This is not financial advice.
If you want to discuss price action some more, then make a thread and I’m more than happy to chat about it. Although again, I’m far from an expert in it, but it is a system I use and I routinely beat the S&P/TSX index, so in any case, it works for me.
Uh huh. It’s rich hearing about my ‘Deep Bias’ in a thread that has been hysterically anti-Musk. Hey, remember those claims that Twitter wouldn’t last a month? Good times.
And it’s entirely possible that the ‘bias’ in my errors works the other way: Peolle only report my errors when they go that way. If I had made an error in the other direction, it wouldn’t have been noted. But when I say something people don’t want to believe, everything I say gets examined for any tiny error, and that gets amplified into a ‘lie’, and that in turn turns into support for the idea that I ‘always lie.’
Tell me: Did any of my supposed ‘lies’ change any of the points I made today? Would you say my characterization of what’s going on at Twitter and Tesla might be just a little more accurate than those in this thread predicting doom and gloom? Or that Twitter would fall down for lack of engineers, or that it would go bankrupt, or that Musk was destroying Tesla? Which point of view do you think more accurately represents reality?
And I’m not a blind Musk supporter. I said in this very thread that he was hurting Tesla and could easily fail at Twitter. But then other people keep spouting crazy stuff, so I point out the truth about the stock and Twitter, and get dragged for a date and a tiny error in one of the prices that didn’t change a damned thing about my point. In the meantime, I’m the only one that could actually be arsed to check the actual numbers before spouting off on Musk’s performance.
Such is the nature of the howling monkeys in the Pit.
No I don’t–were those claims from 2012?
At this point I’m hardly going to rely on the accuracy of your memory, and neither should you. Give us a goddamned cite.
Pretty rich coming from someone who keeps typing howlers.
There are hundreds of documented examples of you lying to advance your agenda. If these are really just random errors, it should be easy for you to point out other errors that you have made that are unfavorable to your agenda.
No, but they allowed us to point and laugh.
Musk says a great many things, some of which might even be true from time to time.
Really it’s because Elon’s bots Twit as goodly as they drive.
Gentlefolk:
It’s bad enough that everyone here has stopped respecting pronouns by reverting to him/her rather than prosecute/Fauci. Deadnaming prosecute by continuing to call Fauci “Elon Musk” is simply beyond the pale. You should all be ashamed of yourselves. Prosecute’s name is now Mr. Tweet, and has been for two days:
Did Elmo pay the required $8 to get that verified?
Or is that awesome privilege just part of the $44B writeoff?
It’s down about $230/share from it’s high a little over a year ago.
They’re not random errors. But I doubt he’s being deliberately misleading either.
He’s clearly biased, You can see that in all of his contributions to this thread. While he may not some Musk fanboy who thinks he can do no wrong, he does clearly favor Musk, likely in part due to his right wing sensibilities. And he really wants to be right that Musk isn’t as bad as the progressives say he is.
They’re not random errors, but I do think they are honest errors, due to confirmation bias. It would be very stupid to intentionally include something this easily shown to be wrong in an “I told you so”-style post. And he’s not (that) stupid. Just biased.
And it was at $15 in late 2019, relative to that it’s up over 1000%. If you’re going to base your estimation of Musk on the Tesla share price, you can’t cherry pick the high on a stock that went to crazy levels in a bubble of overoptimism.
I think the point stands that Musk irresponsibly exacerbated difficult conditions with his Twitter fiasco that contributed to a loss of confidence and the collapse to the low of about $108, that kind of volatility is horrible for an investor. But if the share price ultimately holds up at around the levels it has recovered too, long term investors who hung on are not going to be unhappy.
Conversely, if it’s back at $50 in a year with continuing crazy volatility (which I think is quite possible) then @Sam_Stone will be forced to concede that maybe Musk is not an infallible genius.
It’s still in a bubble. The stock price of Tesla no more represents any real value than the price of bitcoin.
I mean, I wouldn’t buy it here - but that’s a bit hyperbolic.
It’s a meme stock. Nobody is buying it based on a hard look at their financial statements. It’s all hype and fomo.
I’m cherry picking like others. That was my point.
Concede anything? Ha ha! maybe I’ll get that pony that poops skittles too.
Hope springs eternal, doesn’t it?
Deleted.