Bush.
I’ll be voting in California. If I vote Green or Nader I can do so without fear of my vote putting Bush back in office because there’s no way that Kerry won’t win California.
If I vote Kerry that tells the Democratic Party that they have my support- a message I do not want to convey. But if I vote for Cobb or Nader it tells the Democratic Party that they are losing the Left.
If enough voters send this message we challenge the Democratic Party to win us back- may not have a huge effect on their next choice for a Presidential Candidate but our Senators and Congressmen may feel safer making more Left-leaning choices. (I wouldn’t, personally, discount voting Libertarian but the Dems may see that as a vote lost by the Republicans not a vote lost by them.)
If I lived in a “battleground” state, I’d probably vote Kerry- because it would make more of a difference possibly giving Kerry a win in a state that could have gone to Bush. But if you live in a State that is an easy win for either Bush or Kerry a third party vote is more important.
Dammit, duffer, what the hell are you doing being all reasonable and stuff? Just when I was spoiling for a mop-the-floor, eye-gouging, garbage-flinging, mud-wallowing, content-free partisan rantfest, you have to stroll in with shit like THIS?
:mad: Damn party-pooper. 
Sorry dude, I only had 3 beers in the fridge so I’m posting whilst sober. Don’t worry though, I’m off to the bar for a few more. Back in a couple hours to try to disagree with you.
Goddammit, now I’ve pissed off** BLD**. I’m so screwed. :smack: :smack: :smack: :smack: :smack:
If the polls on election day show Bush with an insurmountable lead in North Carolina, that’s when I’ll consider casting my vote for a third-party candidate. Trouble is, Nader’s not campaigning on the issues this year, so he can’t get my vote; the Libertarian party presents what I consider a spurious version of liberty, and the Socialist parties are all kinda whacko. There’s no real good third-party candidate this year that I know of.
Daniel
I voted for Nader last time in a futile attempt to send a wake up call to the Democratic party. This year, Colorado will be close so there is no way I’m going to waste my vote. It’ll be Kerry for me.
Liberal, I really was expecting the shakeup you speak of to take place eight years ago. There was a glimmering hope that the Reform Party was going to turn out to not just be a vehicle for Perot’s ego. That, combined with a strong sense of dissatisfaction with both parties, made it appear that realignment was a real possibility.
And when the movement was over, I would have expected to see two major parties again. That’s what our system rewards.
Not this term, maybe.
But O’Connor’s rumored to be a good bet to retire next term, and Stevens will be 85 in April; one of these days he’s not going to be up to being a Supreme Court Justice anymore.
If Bush gets a second term, the ‘Christian’ Right will almost certainly get its big payoff.
According to all the polls Howard Dean had a cakewalk in OHIO. This was the night before the caucus. If they can’t accurately predict Ohio on the night before, do you really think you can accurately predict the entire nation two months out?
Stop listening to the polls.
I’ve been saying Kerry can’t win since before he was even the Democratic nominee. His dearth of charisma is simply astounding.
In addition to severely underestimating Rove, Kerry and many Democrats really thought they could win by just not being Bush. While that may work for liberals and Democrats, it isn’t enough for swing voters. Also, bear in mind the current administration has done an excellent job blurring the line between the war in Iraq and the war on terrorism; so much so that they’re now, for all practical intents and purposes, one and the same. Of course, some people know better, but those who do not comprise a very large percentage of voting Americans. You just don’t oust a President who’s “winning” the war on terrorism.
[QUOTE=Left Hand of Dorkness]
If the polls on election day show Bush with an insurmountable lead in North Carolina, that’s when I’ll consider casting my vote for a third-party candidate.
[QUOTE]
Exactly. If it’s going to be close in your state- pick either Bush or Kerry. If one of those two is a guaranteed winner in your state- take the opportunity to actually say something with your vote.
The second, I would agree entirely. Do you know what the first means? It is the very antithesis of Bush’s doctrines, I would think.
And in Canada polls showed the conservatives leading by pretty much double digits right up to the election., but the liberals won. People can really change their mind between talking to a pollster on the phone and actually being at the voting booth.
The stupid thing is that, even if Roe v. Wade gets overturned there is enough support for abortion rights that many states will have state laws allowing abortion again - just like pre-Roe v. Wade. I don’t have a cite, but my understanding had been that something like 30% of states had abortion laws on the books allowing abortion at the time of Roe v. Wade, and that number would have been higher, but the process of litigating Roe v. Wade made many groups that might have pushed for pro-abortion laws on the state level decide to wait for the Supreme Court’s decision. I’m not trying to pretend that having Roe v. Wade won’t be a setback if one is in favor of abortion rights - but it’s also not going to be a slamming of the door, either.
As someone who doesn’t feel comfortable with the idea of abortion I wish that those who are against it would focus more on education and alternatives rather than trying to fight a pointless legal battle, since even a victory at the Supreme Court will not have the effect of making abortion illegal nationwide.
Just to pile on one half of this thread’s premise, check out yesterday’s Donkey Rising blog entry:
Bush is a long, long way from sewing this one up. Keep your head on for christ’s sake.
Even if Bush is going to win your state, a vote for Kerry still counts in the national totals. If Bush was to win a second term on electoral votes, it might quell his notion of a mandate if he was again to finish second in the popular vote. Therefore every vote against Bush counts, no matter what state you’re in.
It’s still an electoral dead heat and we still have the debates coming up. There were also seven Marines killed in Iraq yesterday, as well as a surreptitious hike in Medicare premiums of a record 17% which is going to kill Bush with seniors in Forida.
Not only that but Bush is a bout to get a taste of his own medicine from a new Kitty Kelly book which alleges that W snorted coke at Camp David while his daddy was prez.
The bounce for Bush was a result of the Swift Boat smear campaign. It sounds like Bush is actually getting a pretty minimal bounce from the convention (maybe two points).
This is still Kerry’s election to lose. People hate Bush. It’s not like Clinton-Dole in '96. It’s going to be a close election and I’m still confident that Kerry can win. A vote for a third party is still a vote for Bush.
For the sake of the question, may we proceed in at least a subjunctive mode that were Kerry statistically unlikely to win (just like the Greens), would voting for a third party still be a “waste” to people who believe it is wasted if the race is close?
Lib: Seems like your foray into the Democratic party was short lived. Are you looking for an excuse to vote Libertarian? 
Let’s not get too excited about polls taken over Labor Day weekend. Give it some time and see where the numbers really settle out. Kerry is now coming out strongly against the Iraq War, and that might just push him back into the lead. It’s a long wrong 'til November, and you know what they say about “nobody ever won if thy had such-and-such poll numbers at such-and-such time”? The answer is “until somebody does”.
Foray into the Democratic Party? I’m afraid you misunderstood. I am voting for Kerry while holding my nose and hiding my shame. I’m still going to hang here for a bit on the off-chance that someone might address the question.
If the result of the election is a foregone conclusion then I don’t think third party votes are wasted. I just don’t think this particular election has reached that point, nor do I think it’s likely to.