Here’s a poll Strategic Vision did in Iowa a week ago (linking to MyDD for the January comparison):
Vilsack was more or less tied for second in Iowa with Clinton and Obama. Who his supporters gravitate to will be a big deal.
Since Vilsack’s pretty much a centrist (his DLC credentials are untarnished), I’d say Clinton and Obama are much likelier to be the beneficiaries than Edwards is. It’ll tighten up the race amongst the Big Three in Iowa.
Don’t count on Governor Tom having a whole lot of solid support out here on the wind swept prairies. We are still a year away from the Iowa Caucuses (a grotesque local custom involving black coffee and tollhouse cookies). It is way too early for serious minded people to settle on a final choice for the presidential election in November 2008. I suspect that people who said that they favored Vilsack were just going the favorite son route to avoid showing their hand before thing get serious. That will probably not happen until after this coming Labor Day.
In the meantime, the big dogs, Hillary, Obama, Edwards, Mitt Romney, McCain, et al, are staging pretty regular raids and spreading their faces on local TV. This is going to be one long season, folks. Right now the population is a lot more concerned with high school sports and the prospect that renewable fuels will force up the price of corn, and with it land, meat, milk and soy beans. On top of that the Iowa Legislature is in session. That is more than enough comedy for the time being.
By election time they are Obama’s to lose, even though HRC will get the bigger initial bump.
Most everyone already has a strong opinion about HRC, one way or the other. Her support is pretty much as strong as it will get. OTOH most voters do not really know much about Obama. He has the chance to win that support if he is as good at articulating his vision and connecting with voters as he appears to be so far.
What support? The last poll I saw had him running fourth in his home state.
Oooh! Sign me up!
One of these days I’ll start a thread entitled “Corn Into Fuel: Horror or Abomination?” but not today. I’ll just imply my misgivings about grain-derived ethanol and wait for somebody more literate to turn our two states’ favorite fuel into a thread.
But so is everyone else except for Edwards. Before Vilsack pulled out, he was in a 3-way tie with Hillary and Obama. (See OP.)
Don’t the votes go to the next highest bidder?
Tris
I actually think most of Vilsack’s centrist support may go to Edwards.
Edwards, though his rhetoric is lefty, somehow manages to be perceived as a centrist by a lot of voters. Maybe it’s the accent. If Edwards can continue to win lefties with his rhetoric and centrists with his image as a centrist among lesser-informed voters, he should be in pretty good shape.
The is the exact opposite of Dean’s situation in '04. He was actually a centrist on most issues, but was perceived as far-left. That was partly his own doing with the “Democratic wing of the Democratic Party” rhetoric.
So there’s no love at all for Richardson? 
Ideologically, he’s probably closest to Vilsack.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but weren’t Vilsack & Bayh both “resumé” candidates? I think some significant proportion of his support is going to go to Richardson one way or another.
Vilsacknik[sup]1[/sup]: Looks for another resumé candidate, finds Richardson.
Vilsacknik[sup]2[/sup]: Looks for another resumé candidate, finds Biden. When Biden falls out, picks Richardson.
Vilsacknik[sup]3[/sup]: Looks for another resumé candidate, finds Dodd. When Dodd falls out, picks Richardson.
Vilsacknik[sup]4[/sup]: Looks for another resumé candidate, finds Dodd. If Dodd falls out before Biden, goes to Biden or Hillary, while resigning self to a likely victory by a MSM favorite. Eventually decides Richardson is OK.
Vilsacknik[sup]5[/sup]: Looks for another resumé candidate, finds Biden. If Biden falls out before Dodd, goes to Dodd or Hillary, while resigning self to a likely victory by a MSM favorite. Eventually decides Richardson is OK.
Vilsacknik[sup]6[/sup]: Looks for another midwestern candidate, finds Obama. Considers Obama awfully urban. Sticks with Obama anyway.
Vilsacknik[sup]7[/sup]: Looks for another candidate representing a rural area, finds Edwards, considers Edwards awfully ideological. Decides Richardson is electable.
etc.
Really, I think there’s no one obvious path. Spavined Gelding’s right. There’s no way to tell what every single Iowa caucus-goer who’d pick Vilsack wants more than a favorite son.
As has been pointed out, it’s too early, and Iowa (D)s are all over the map anyway. I don’t think it’s possible this early to say who will pick up potential voters, particularly because there are so accursedly many candidates. And Iowa (D)s pride themselves (at least the ones I’ve met) on their fiercely independent streaks.
Then they go and vote for whoever abases him or herself the most to corn farmers.
I think they should all ignore Iowa. They won’t, but when was the last contest decided there?
Charismatically, he’s pretty close to Vilsack too. 
Iowa is an elimination round. You don’t have to win, but if you finish at or near the bottom, you’re toast.
He did well at the DNC Winter Meeting in Nevada. As blogger Jonathan Singer puts it: