NPR will not call races until the AP does

I think that’s a good idea.

I can go with that.

I totally hate it when TV stations “predict” races with, like, 5% of the vote counted.

Besides WI and PA, the states where mail-in ballots can’t be processed until Election Day are Mississippi and Alabama.

It would be awesome if poll workers in those two states, as neutral functionaries (as they — we — must be when doing our duties) — deliberately took their time processing them. Knowing that Trump wants to irresponsibly “declare victory” before anything close to all of PA and WI’s ballots are counted, poll workers across Miss. and Ala. should take their sweet time, responsibly verifying the validity of each ballot with deliberate slowness.

This would teach Trump a lesson in basic democracy, if he had to wait for results to “put him over the top” (not) after all.

But more importantly, it could actually prevent a real crisis — real violence. (Again, not over the eventual tally itself, but stemming from deliberately premature claims of “victory” clashing with the facts of that eventual tally).

Actually MI won’t start processing mail-ins until tomorrow either. There was bipartisan support for allowing early processing, politics wasn’t really an issue, but then the Dipstick-in-Chief started tweeting and the Republican majority got cold feet.

Really it’s not NPR’s or AP’s job to call races, it’s the secretaries of state of the various states. Sure, the networks almost always get it right but this year I hope they exercise more caution.

More like a lack of spine.

How often do networks get such predictions wrong?

It’s pretty safe to assume Illinois will be Blue and Idaho will be Red. You don’t need to wait for that.

Agreed. There ought to be a pact among the major networks that races won’t be called until at least X% of the results are in - even if the exit polls make it obvious. Better yet, there could be a presidential commission on election results reporting. To allay concerns about restrictions on press freedom, we could make it voluntary but strongly encouraged. So in other words, all networks have like a central go-to source where they agree that this is the guy that’s going to call the election results.

only around 10 states or less are in play. Most likely Indiana gets called for Trump at 7 since they are among the first states to close polls.

What’s the relevance of “X% of the results”?

To me, they shouldn’t call the results until the polls are closed. That could be state-by-state, but I’d argue to wait until the polls are closed in Hawaii. But after that, what’s the downside of letting them call the race? Let them say whatever they want, accurate or not. It’s too late to affect anything.

Sometimes you have to trust the math.
When I teach statistics it always shocks the students how you can get fairly accurate results with a seemingly small sample. has an article about when to expect results for each state. There’s not really a point in waiting for all of the counting in, say, DC, or Arkansas, as long as there is enough in to ensure that nothing strange seems to be happening.

The important thing is for no states that are in play to be called prematurely.

I have never believed Trump’s narrative that the “Fake News” is out to get him.

Having said that, if ever there was a day for the media to unabashedly fuck him over, I hope they do it on November 3rd. Never announce a lead for Trump, even if he has one for a few minutes. Always call Biden leads, ignore anything to the contrary and call every race for Biden early and often. Be Fake News for one glorious day, knowing full well that Trump is hate-watching MSNBC and CNN. Hit him with his own garbage, breathless headlines about how “many people” are saying he will lose everywhere. Report on some rumors that the deepest of deep red states are voting blue like no one has ever seen before. Don’t give him a single moment of hope and definitely don’t give him a single moment where he is in the lead therefore he automatically wins by the rule he made up where that happens.

Speaking of which, is there any kind of competitive anything where you win because you were in the lead at one point before the end of the contest? I guess in boxing maybe but you still have to score points and you can still get knocked out. But certainly not in any other kind of competition I’m familiar with - ask anyone who has lost money at a racetrack when that nag that was in last place won on account of a sudden burst of speed and a long nose. Ask the Vancouver Canucks, who have been up a bunch of goals in a hockey game and lost in the final few minutes of the third period because the opposition scored seven times in five minutes. Ask that rabbit who still can’t figure out how he got beat by a goddamn turtle.

Thanks for this link. I just shared it on FaceBook. I expect I will get a lot of questions today about who is winning, what’s going on, etc. I like living in Switzerland. But today / this week?

I really hope the race can be called by November 4th.

I hope it’s so overwhelming, it gets called when all the polls close.