We wouldn’t even need nukes to completely disable their country anyway. NK has always been like this, they are a dog with little bite and China caught in the middle. They can test all they want but it’s pretty unlikely they would commit suicide by actually attacking the US or Japan cause Kim wouldn’t live for much longer afterwards and he knows that.
Except that he’s totally nuts. He’s so out of touch with reality that he may actually believe the shit that comes out of his mouth. He needs to be eliminated as soon as possible.
We absolutely know they will still work. The ICBM’s and bombs haven’t just been sitting in silos untouched. They are regularly inspected and every aspect of them except for the actual “pit” warhead is regularly test fired. Test firings of Minutemen ICBM’s happen regularly and so do test firings of SLBM’s. As for the actual warhead, the physics is sufficiently understood that as long as the implosion mechanism works correctly and the radioactive material hasn’t decayed too much, then it WILL go boom. Again the decay rates are completely understood, we know exactly how long each warhead is good for.
They can even test fire the implosion mechanism without the plutonium pit and measure the results to make sure it’s functioning as expected.
Of course there would be some failures due to mechanical failures but even if 20% of them failed (highly unlikely) the US has thousands of nuclear weapons. Actual nuclear explosions are not needed now, for maintenance or design of new weapons, because using the data they already collected from all the previous test firings they can simulate a nuclear device with enough accuracy to know the outcome.
Welcome to the cold war
Rational actor = leadership
Norkville = North Korea
Micro Mad= Mutually assured destruction on a regional scale, rather than global
Status Quo ante Bellum = current state of affairs
War is a democracy = is simply a phrase to remind people that the best laid plans are subject to change when the rubber meets the road
Again from the beginning, what I am not in favor of, is a nuclear warning shot. It has all the negatives of a nuclear mission, with none of the positives. And it will not work, Kim is not going to be scared by a warning shot. Thus if you are going to use a nuclear weapon in anger, the best shot is a decapitation shot.
Now, I am not in possession of any classified information, and this being GD, I do not have anything in the way of cites, so you will forgive me, if I simply offer an opinion.
I am not familiar with the Chinese nuclear program, but I do know that the American Govt sold the Russians advanced PAL systems. That stands for permissive action links, and is interlinked with nuclear devices, so that unless the correct codes are entered, the device will not detonate. Having said that , I would have to think that the Chinese also have this technology, as its simply a good idea, and allows positive control over all nuclear devices.
Personally to me, it seemed weird that the North Koreans were following a nuclear program, as its been accepted that they had been nuclear for a lot longer than its been reported, which presumes that their nuclear program should have been in place since the seventies, and yet here they are still doing nuclear test shots.
My belief is that they have had an arsenal of Chinese devices for some time, but what they do not have is the codes for those weapons. To me, that suggests that they no longer have faith, that if it came to the crunch, the Chinese Govt would supply the codes, regardless of what ever they are hearing out of Beijing. Thus they have been boot strapping a domestic nuclear production, independent of the Chinese.
You asked me what I prefer, and thats status quo. The second best option, is that the Chinese take it over and make it a province. They made it a problem, they can solve it.
No ICBM has ever been test fired with a live nuclear warhead – even on the Pacific test range in the 1960s. No nuclear warhead has ever been tested after atmospheric reentry from an ICBM’s suborbital velocity. No unarmed ICBM has ever been test fired on a polar trajectory – the most likely one to be used. There are detailed gravimetric, coriolis and geodetic maps for the polar trajectory and in theory an ICBM would fly as intended, but it’s never been flight tested – by anyone.
OK. Thanks for the phrase book.
*Status Quo ante Bellum *means the state of things before the war, which is clearly not the current state of things.
That said, I agree that the status quo, being the continuation of economic sanctions and securing of strategic defenses in South Kore and Japan, is vastly preferable to anything nukey, either as a saber-rattling warning or, god forbid, a preemptive nuclear strike, or any other type of first strike for that matter.
I seriously doubt South Korea would be happy to see China annex the North, but I do think it would be preferable to the current regime, which, as you note, was very carelessly instituted by China.
My hope is that China will finally see that NK is more trouble than it’s worth to keep around as a radicalized pawn and will cooperate in sufficiently restrictive sanctions that will collapse the regime. Ideally, the North could then be helped to reintegrate with the South.
That is *far *beyond any level at which Beijing trusts Pyongyang, IMHO.
“Sanctions” is a nice-sounding word, but in reality, due to the habit of the ruling elite grabbing everything they want, any sanctions severe enough to bring down the ruling class of North Korea will probably involve not only a lot of suffering but a lot of actual deaths among the ordinary people. Perhaps millions.
After all, during the famine of the 1990’s the ruling classes remained well fed while half a million people died, most of that time refusing external aid, and it’s left an entire generation physically stunted, as is obviously when comparing the heights of DMZ guards - the ones from the south are notably taller.
“Sanctions to collapse the regime” means millions of deaths among the common people. Please keep that in mind whenever you suggest it.
Pedantically you are correct but again it’s physics and material science and lots of simulations with super computer clusters. The issues you mention might make it miss it’s target by a greater than expected amount but not by much. And rockets based on ICBM shared technology absolutely have been launched on polar trajectories.
The G forces experienced on launch and descent can also be simulated in a very large centrifuge and it would be sensible to assume that’s been done, I imagine many times. And they don’t experience ground impact, ICBM’s detonate in the air, for a greater effect.
I would think overall it’s pretty safe to think they would work.
Of course the US also has SLBM which can be launched from much closer and don’t have polar trajectories, and they have nuclear tipped cruise missiles, and they have good old gravity bombs. One of them is going to work.
Yes, as you aptly point out, the repercussions of regime-crippling sanctions would be devastating to the underserving citizens of North Korea; maybe even as much as, or more than military action. So I really don’t know what the best strategy would be.
The North Korean regime is, as I understand it, a horribly cruel one with apparently little regard for the welfare of its citizens and a willingness to let them starve.
It’s a horrible conundrum.
What do you think is the best way for the international community to handle North Korea, having as little repercussion for the common people as possible?
I have read some opinions that suggest the North has been teetering on the brink of collapse for some time. (Sorry, fuzzy memory and no cites.)
Perhaps just the right kind of pressure from China could cause the elites to turn on Kim and open up to reforms that will dismantle the North’s nuclear program and provide better conditions for the general populace.
“Sanctions to collapse the regime” means millions of deaths among the common people. Please keep that in mind whenever you suggest it."
Sure, but do you think there is ANY possible long term solution to NK that doesn’t involve millions of people dying? I don’t, the regime there is not going to go peacefully. Either there’s a war to force them out, or a blockade. Either way potentially millions of people die. Choose one.
And if you say “status quo” that means that inevitably, eventually NK will develop ICBM’s capable of hitting continental US or Europe. At that stage its essentially too late for anything except giving in to them whenever they decide to blackmail the world for food or money.
I been saying for awhile now that the current North Korea looks like it was engineered by people who read the novel 1984 and studied the various detention/work/death camps of WWII and said you know, there are a lot of good ideas here but they didn’t take them far enough…
I don’t think there is a good solution any longer. I think we will have to choose one, and try to choose the least bad however you wish to define that.
I merely wanted to remind people that “sanctions” is not as clean and neat as sometimes thought. It doesn’t involve exploding buildings and bleeding, mangled people but they still cause enormous suffering and death.
Until the North had viable nuclear technology the “status quo”, while horrible enough, did prevent more deaths than it caused. Post-famine, there were changes in the society that might, with time, have led to less suffering and repression.
Now that the North has nuclear weapons and is trying to refine the delivery systems? No, we can not maintain the status quo because it is no longer that, it is now an evolving situation.
If we do nothing the weapons program will proceed and, eventually, I think the regime will launch an actual attack that will lead to a very, very nasty war. Possibly a nuclear one, but even a resumption of conventional warfare would be terrible.
If we launch a preemptive conventional strike we risk losing a large part of Seoul and escalating the situation to a full shooting war again. Again, possibly nuclear.
If we preemptively drop a nuke on them… well, then we just started a nuclear war. Which could escalate beyond the peninsula and will definitely make us look like the Evil Empire to more than a few people. Ditto for any other nuclear power having the same idea.
In all of the above scenarios there will be millions dead and more millions maimed.
There could also be world-wide economic repercussions which, while not as bad as dying, could lead to much additional suffering and if severe enough, yeah, more dying.
There are no good solutions here. In the end, there will be no true winners.
Correct, IMO the “least bad” solution is a complete blockade of NK all ports and airports and land crossings (which would require China’s cooperation) combined with an offer from China of exile for the Kim family. Yes Kim will probably hold out as long as he can causing many many unnecessary civilian deaths, but its better than the other options.
Why would you believe this nonsense?
Nobody in Korea will be happy to see Korea annexed again by anyone. If China were to attempt to occupy the North, the DPRK government would have no problem getting support from its own people to fight against the PLA.
The DPRK was established by the USSR. The PRC did not institute the current government in the DPRK. North Korea’s founding leader decided on his own that he would pass the mantle of rule to his son and that son did the same. Actual communist countries, such as the PRC, condemned the DPRK for that.
You’re forgetting something very important here. The PRC is concerned about “stability on the Korean Peninsula” for one reason: fear of refugees. As long as the DPRK is keeping its people inside the country and still managing to provide certain raw material to the PRC, China will not do a blame thing to upset the status quo.
Except they already have done quite a lot to upset the status quo. They started placing sanctions on NK themselves late last year and just in the last week they indicated that they would not protect NK if they were attacked. Both of those things have never happened before and there is every indication that China doesn’t want NK to have long range nuclear weapons almost as much as the rest of the world.
Sometimes I wonder if the US could not solve its dictator problem by telling the dictator "ok, worried about what happens if you step down, ok fine here is a green card for you and your immediate family, just resign and book a flight. And keep your opinions to yourself when you get there or we’ll have you dragged to the Hauge.
Might be cheaper than what they have been doing thus far.
Not for the least reason that it would be a lot easier for Pyongyang to send a missile to Beijing than to Washington, DC. North Korea with workable nukes is a threat to everyone.
Except that we did that for Noriega, and he sorta declined the invitation.
That’s what Saudi Arabia did for Amin. Unfortunately the British and Spanish courts rather spoiled the party by trying to prosecute Pinochet.