Will North Korea try and nuke the U.S.? If so will our defense systems stop the nuke before it falls. Will we recover? What cities would they aim for?
Well they can’t hit the lower 48 or Hawaii. Western Alaska is about it or possibly Guam.
My understanding is that there technology is still fairly craptastic and it would be a miracle if they could get a missile on target AND get the nuke to work.
No, no, yes, who knows?
If by “defense systems” you mean “the Pacific Ocean”, then yes.
We already know that they’re aiming for Austin. So based on that, Portland and Brooklyn are probable targets as well.
First off, most of the rhetoric coming out of North Korea is for internal power struggles and to try to get food and fuel aid back (in exchange for shutting the hell up, I suppose). I seriously doubt they plan on sending any nukes anywhere.
Second, North Korea’s long-range missiles are somewhere between theoretical and unreliable. If they tried to send something to the US mainland, there’s a good chance it would fail before it got here, probably upon launch. If it did work and go where it’s supposed to, I’m not sure how good our missile defense system is, since it hasn’t been used and tests have been spotty.
As to wehre they would aim, I imagine they’d be ambitious enough to target Washington DC if they could, or Los Angeles, but in reality they’d be lucky to hit land. They might as well send a few agents over to buy PowerBall tickets.
In that 0.00000001% chance a nuclear weapon exploded over a city, it would suck, many would die, but recovery is guaranteed.
It’s not at all clear whether their nuclear technology can produce a device small enough to fit on a missile.
That site also shows the ranges of NK’s various missiles. Currently, they can barely reach the Aleutian island chain.
If they want to nuke they US, they’ll have to bring the device over on a boat and somehow sneak up to the coast undetected.
Courtesy of the old Wikipedia, their longest range missile, the Taepodong-2, could maybe hit Alaska–but they haven’t actually gotten the Taepodong-2 to work yet. The Musudan could hit Guam–but they haven’t got it to work either. And none of these missiles would necessarily have nuclear warheads yet–there’s no indication that the North Koreans have managed to make a bomb small enough to fit on a ballistic missile; their missile payloads seem to top out at around 1 to 1.5 metric tons; early atomic bombs weighed in at four or five metric tons, and as I understand it miniaturizing the warheads was a fairly major technical challenge.
The bombs they’ve been testing aren’t exactly Tsar Bomba. It would suck for anyone in the immediate vicinity, but it’s not like the country or even the targeted city would be a totally vaporized moonscape.
On getting the bomb small. Take Fat Man or Little Boy. Ancient tech, I know, and one is a linear slammer, I think, and the other isn’t…
What all was so humongous about those that was whittled away, so to speak, as designs changed over the years?
Overengineering. Until you know what is critical and how tolerant components are of “slop” you build to ensure that at all stages you exceed the requirements for success. Then, with additional testing and refinement, you can whittle your solution down to the point it is a much smaller package.
I’m pretty sure spherical implosion plutonium devices changed shape as explosive lenses/fuse timing improved. Explosive lenses got smaller with better explosives. Neutron generating materials/moderators improved as well. Modelling computers got faster and better, allowing better simulation and design. All these things add up to massive miniaturization.
Unless they load the bomb onto a ship, take it to Mexico, & slip it across the border at night.
Which has crossed my mind, these last few days.
si, thanks.
The government has radiation detectors at borders and in major cities to look for that sort of thing. (You might have heard stories about people getting questioned while driving or walking in a city, because they had recently had a PET scan.)
Since these questions require speculation, let’s move this to IMHO. Thread title edited to indicate subject.
Colibri
General Questions Moderator
Yeah, they’ve tested three or four I think. At least one, maybe two, was a fizzle (a dud) and the others where around Hiroshima size ~20kt or smaller. Wouldn’t be too great if they lobbed one at Seoul, but the US has nothing to worry about (I mean, aside from having to fight another Korean War if they nuked Seoul…)
They haven’t yet gotten to either Hiroshima or Nagasaki size - they are in the <10 KT range.
Very, very, very unlikely; it would be national suicide. There’s nothing they could possibly do that would hurt us bad enough so that we couldn’t destroy them. China would I’m certain retract any protection whatsoever from it; as close as they are, a nuke-throwing NK is going to scare them even worse than it would us. In fact, I wouldn’t be too surprised to see in such a scenario China invade NK and conquer it. Neither China or the US is going to want them around after that.
There are thousands of miles of border with no cities, and just dirt roads and coyotes to witness.
You can’t just pull up a container ship to a deserted beach, sling a bomb-containing 40ft container onto a truck and drive off cross the border. Containers mean ports, documents, inspections and restricted exit routes, no matter where in the world you land. To bypass those, you need bribes, hard currency and co-operative officials. Oh, and a device that can handle weeks at sea, rough handling and transport.
Chances of the NKoreans having even a fraction of all that even if they had the nuclear material - zip.