The Washington Post shares a story of a smuggling group sharing both nuclear bomb parts and possibly blueprints to hostile powers.
Of course, the usual suspects are already using this to point to Democrats and the Supreme Court as deluded actors who’re determined to let LA or New York go up in a nuclear cloud before laying a finger on a terrorist. But what do you think of the threat posed by what the article describes?
The gist of the article is that they would have been useful for states that had a nuclear weapon program, but had problems shrinking their warheads into the missiles they had available.
Thats a subtlety I doubt would-be nuclear terrorists would worry about, when there are perfectly good semi-trucks or carge ships, that make perfectly good “delivery systems” for their needs.
All terrorism is “fear-based,” that’s the point of it; the actual damage inflicted is incidental to that goal.
Not a lot.
The sticking point for making nukes is isotope separation, which is technically extraordinarily difficult, requiring a range of infrastructure and expertise. Even if you have plans for a gas centrifuge, you need hundreds of the things, running for years, in a plant that can handle uranium hexafluoride gas. If you have the resources, knowledge and talent available to operate such a plant, you probably don’t NEED someone else’s centrifuge plans.
Given enough weapon-grade uranium, a Scrapheap Challenge team could build a gun-type fission bomb. Probably in the 10-hour limit. It wouldn’t be elegant or efficient, or fit nicely into the top of a missile, but they could make it.
An implosion design is technically more challenging, and probably beyond the ability of a small terrorist cell. But when Fat Man and Trinity were designed, shaped charges and explosive lenses were recent innovations. Today, they are normal aspects of explosive theory demolition work. There are reams of unclassified literature on detonation waves and what can be done with them. That genie is out of the bottle. Again, if you have the resources and people available to successfully run an isotope separation plant, they’ll build a viable bomb for you, blueprints or not.
Since the first target will likely be DC the problem will resolve itself.
Seems to me it would be utter stupidity to let a terrorist group detonate a nuke anywhere.
Considering 9/11 opened the door to the US going into Afghanistan I imagine New York going poof would see the US seeking to erase every remotely unfriendly government they felt involved (basically saying we clearly cannot allow Islamic extremism to be supported at a government level…assuming it was Islamic terrorists…if they are Russian would be a good start to WWIII).
Whatever you may say about Islamic governments I do not think they are stupid or suicidal. I doubt they would hand over nukes to terrorists. Maybe some leftovers for a dirty bomb though.
Put a nuke in an executive jet or cargo plane, detonate as you’re coming in to land and it’s game over, man.
A ship is a better delivery system. Low-profile, slow, stops at ports of call before the target area, then detonates in port. If they popped one under the Golden Gate Bridge, they could shut down Northern California for a good, long time, in addition to the “terror” effect.
It is only the desire by the Bad Guys™ to have a “Hollywood” strike that keeps me sane. If they really wanted to do damage, there are much nastier things to do with radioactives. Read “The Hamlet Ultimatum” for ideas.
I disagree: a small nuke detonated at ground level in a big city will level a block or two up and down each side of the river but the blast will be largely contained by the large buildings - remember that in the photos of Hiroshima, stone buildings near the epicentre were left standing. And half the blast - the downwards portion - will be wasted. Explode one in the air and you have carnage. Maximum radiative burst, visible from afar, get the altitude right and you get vastly more fallout. Very nasty. Security-wise, ships give the good guys more time, give your engineering more time to go wrong, give more time for second thoughts, etc.
But either way is very nasty.