I operate in circles that occasionally puts me in front of people who have a device that is essentially a perpetual motion machine or ‘over-unity’ device.
I’d like the teeming millions help on a ‘guess.’ Can you provide your opinion, or guess (either educated or not) about how many such devices are conceived in the world per year. It doesn’t have to be based on any knowledge you have, but if you do, let that guide you.
By ‘conceived’ lets make it something that is far enough that the person is starting to build it, or tell people about it in complete seriousness. So wacky, beer fueled ideas for a laugh don’t count; but someone who has written notes and drawn pictures and told people they think it would work does count.
For context, and maybe to start, let me give my own guess:
I work in a completely average state where I talk to inventors regularly, and I see 2 such devices a year. If I assume these 2/year represent 20% of such devices that are at this stage, there would be 10 such conceptions per year in my average state. Multiply by 50 states gets 500 such conceived devices in a year. Also assuming that the US accounts for 1/3 of these devices at this stage would mean that 1500 such conceived ideas are created world wide each year.
I see what you did there. Best laugh I’ve had in days.
Edit: I’ve read a few articles about scientists who get frustrated having to explain to would-be inventors and crackpots that they have not, in fact, upended our understanding of mathematics, physics or whatever.
But what would the OP say are the chances that someone actually could do that? An outsider to the relevant field, that is.
I would guess there are a fair number of people who are given to such delusion. And I use that word purposefully when we are talking about perpetual motion devices. It’s mystifying. But then I’m also mystified that there are enough people who feel it necessary to have their eyebrows threaded that it’s a viable business.
Can’t really put a number to it. But of the people who do come up with perpetual motion devices, what percentage of those go to the trouble of telling you (or someone like you, who is presumably in a position to do something about it)? I’ll just say that the number is probably large enough to be depressing.
But here’s another follow up question: At what point does proper skepticism become unfairly discouraging? Could these people be redirected in such a way that they could become productive engineers or inventors? I’m guessing not, but I do wonder if some amount of talent or ability is being lost.
not in my experience. Most of them don’t have the scientific or engineering skill in the particular area to see the error of their thinking. Sometimes they use their ignorance as a badge, because their mind is not ‘hamstrung’ by close minded thinking that traditional education brainwashes people into not seeing the value of the idea.
Are we counting those by children or others who have not yet had the opportunity to learn better? Because I came up with several in my youth, and I imagine most other kids inclined towards invention did likewise.
I like your Feynman estimate approach. Mine has less raw data than yours but has more pessimistic coefficents.
You see 2/year. I think those two represent 0.1% of the crackpots muttering about their devices. Far more are designed in heads and then harangued about to anyone who’ll listen than are converted to serious drawings or physical models. So IMO your so-called average state really has 2,000 muttering crackpots devising would-be perpetual motion machines per year.
Not knowing what state you’re in, I don’t know its population or how that compares to the national total. But unless your state has real close to 6.6 million people, 50 isn’t the right multiplier to get to the US total.
I’m looking for a reasonably intelligent number that has gotten to the serious enough stage that people are either actually building it or are actively trying to market the idea even if to their friends/family.
To me, exploratory musings from kids don’t reach that level unless they are seriously trying to build it or convince someone to provide funding for it.
If you’re talking about novel perpetual motion inventions, I would imagine the number is not huge. Most of the inventions are going to a rehash of something someone else already did, either through imitation, or coincidence - ie:
Mechanically coupling a generator to a motor, then feeding the motor with the power from the generator.
Using magnets and wheels in the assumption you can get a ‘push away’ without first pushing toward them.
Overbalanced wheels.
Magical siphons based on mistaken notions of how fluids work in gravity.
‘Perpetual motion’ machines that actually require a power input that is handwaved away as trivial.
I think the number could be fairly high then. A lot of the prototypes could be as simple as models made with coffee stirrers, tape and toy magnets - and a lot of the attempts could be people who know about an existing concept, but are convinced that they alone have the breakthrough insight to make it work. Many of these people will be older kids or young adults.
Edit - just noticed this
OK, maybe not so many, but science fair level models or stuff they made to put in a video on their socials qualifies?
With this clarification / amplification, I rescind my earlier estimate and defer to yours as much closer to the crireria you intend.
There’s a huge gulf between my “crackpots muttering about their novel ideas” versus your “actually building or marketing to friends / family”. Lots more of the former than the latter.
Well, you need to add 1. I just KNOW that it’s possible to have a Drinking Bird power a cooling fan. My demonstration model and patent application will be finished shortly.
