The crime rate is now way up:
Who could have predicted?
The trend is back up. According to the article, it doesn’t sound like New York’s citizens are seeing the good news you’re trying to sell.
Most people don’t have the time or desire to examine long-term statistical trends and rather have their perceptions driven by the headlines driven by media always seeking to get the public’s attention? Truly a surprise I tell you.
Except they are right. Crime is up. Especially murder. Saying that it’s still better than it was five years ago is poor analysis. I wouldn’t expect crime to return to the levels of the bad old days in just one year. But unless de Blasio returns policing policies to the way they were, he’ll very likely see crime rates much higher than under his non-Democratic predecessors. voters won’t miss the significance of that.
Except violent crime in general is not up even just counting the past year (as opposed to murder). I’m generally more pro-police than most posters here but its absurd to say that particular policing techniques as opposed to larger factors such as gentrification, longer sentences for violent criminals, and even banning leaded gasoline have been responsible for most of the decline in crime in both New York City and nationwide. I might add, though that at least certain elements of New York City’s police union have been behaving what Republicans like to portray public employee unions in general as-entitled, spoiled brats refusing to do their job due to some modest criticism.
Police practices certainly weren’t the biggest factor in the crime drop, but they do matter, as we’re seeing in a lot of cities where liberals have had a chance to try the old ways again.
First of all, you seem to be committing a rather obvious cum hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy, unless you can explain how De Blasio’s policies have caused the murder rate to increase. How do you know the murder rate wouldn’t be even higher, if not for the good Mayor’s policies?
Second, it’s way too early to discern a trend in the YTD increase in the murder rate (which was down in 2014 btw). Historical data on citywide crime stats for the seven major felony offenses can be downloaded here. You’ll see that the murder rate jumped 11% in 2006, then fell 17% in 2007, and jumped again by 14% in 2010, then resumed its decline all the way through 2014. In short, the 15% YTD increase doesn’t tell you squat except that the murder rate is inherently volatile.
Major felonies overall have been in decline since data began to be collected, down about 6.5% per year since 1990. This trend continued during De Blasio’s first year, with major felonies down 4%, including murder down 1%, and down 6.8% YTD in 2015. My guess is that murders and other felonies will be lower in 2017 than they were in 2013, and that De Blasio will (unduly) take credit for it.
I have never been a De Blasio fan and didn’t vote for him, but the self-serving and intellectually dishonest criticisms re: policing and crime that he routinely gets from the NYP and its ilk may turn me into a supporter yet…
Let us say, arguendo, that the end of stop-and-frisk (which is what you mean when you’re talking about new policing policies) is a significant factor in the rise in crime – more than, say, diminished respect for the NYPD in the wake of the Eric Garner incident and others. Is it possible to reverse it without bringing back D/WWB? Is it worth looking into?
In other words, even if new “policing policies” caused the increase, that doesn’t mean restoring the old “policing policies” is the only way or the most effective way or the best way to bring crime back down
Because the NYPD was so respected in the 70s and 80s. Because lack of respect for the cops causes people to murder each other.
While other factors are more important, policing does matter, and if the police are being hogtied crime will go up.
Plus I don’t find de Blasio’s solution to be very encouraging: “We’re going to get the guns out of the hands of the bad guys.” WTF? No, you’re going to find the bad guys, and you’re going to remove them from society, possibly permanently.
For what it’s worth, I agree that the Garner situation was BS, but I put that less at the NYPD’s feet than at the governmental level. If you don’t think the police should arrest someone for a crime, don’t make it a crime! Making things crimes but asking police not to “harass” people committing those crimes is logic only a politician could love.
Here’s an article from the Washington Post about NYC murder rates, the increase, and a look at whether it has anything to do with stopping stop-and-frisk:
This thread was created by extracting posts from later posts of The NYC mayoral race 2013 based on a resumption of a discussion begun in the linked post.
[ /Moderating ]
A predictable result of relaxing policing policies. Anyone with common sense understands why.
Nature abhors a vacuum. Standoff the police and the criminals of the world take note and fill the void with violence. What is so hard to understand about that ?
Trying to suggest (unstated) measures should be taken because of a punctual statistical uptick is a worse one ; much less speculating on the cause of such an uptick without a shred of evidence or even token investigation.
Let me guess : nigger nigger niggers niggering nigger ? That about cover the space of your innuendo ? Or would you care to further elaborate and detail, for those of us evidently bereft of common sense ?
Did you read the 2nd sentence ? That is your answer.
The 2nd sentence is valid no matter where, no matter what the population is.
Additionally there is no need to insult me or make accusations. I was not thinking that at all.
Well do tell us how De Blasio has “standoffed” the police exactly, then. Please be specific.
That’s getting you a warning, Kobal2. Not only is it inappropriate, but it’s also putting words in another poster’s mouth. Don’t do it again.
How would we even see or notice a long-term/widespread trend like that? “Last year, I knew three people who got killed, but this year, it’s 10!” I don’t think most people are going to really feel the impact of the murder rate personally.
No doubt, if murders had dropped in NYC instead, no matter how statistically meaningless,you’d have started a thread to applaud de Blasio. And generally, if the implementation of any liberal anti-crime policy was followed shortly by some drop in crime you’d set aside your ideology and get on board?