Obama leads in delegate count

Great Debates
181

I’m not worried about Texas. In addition to Jim Dunnam (mentioned above), State Sen. Royce West of Dallas has now endorsed Obama.

And as I posted here this morning, so has the Mayor of Austin.

And I’m still encouraged by the analysis that the Burnt Orange bloggers did, linked to here. For instance, if you look at South Texas, “Unless Senator Clinton can gain 62.51% of the vote in the four biggest South Texas Districts, she and Senator Obama will split most of the South Texas (largely Latino) vote [with 2 delegates each].” And don’t forget that Texas holds caucuses after the polls officially close, and we all know who is much better at organizing caucus-goers.

182

With all the negative campaigning, whining, and hubub from the Clinton’s - Barack’s numbers still continue to climb, Clinton Superdelegates continue to turn from her to Obama, and BIG money is still pouring in. If anyone can explain that in terms of anything other than millions of people wanting change [and not the Clinton variety] then have at it.
That little voice in the back of Hillaries head is saying, “*shit, he’s in it to win it…and people are listening…he’s filling stadiums…fuck!.. *”

scuse the language.

183

[QUOTE=Diogenes the Cynic]
Even if Obama can get the lead down to single digits in Texas, that will still be as good as a victory for him. He doesn’t have to win any of those remaing big states outright, just make them close, which I think he will.
[/QUOTE]

I disagree, unfortunately. If Clinton wins both Texas and Ohio, even if it’s by only 5%, I predict the following:

  • lots of stories about how Obama’s momentum has been stopped, or about how momentum has shifted (whether or not that is true), leading to
  • Clinton definitely stays in until Pennsylvania, extending the contest for at least another 6 weeks
  • the delegate count will be close enough for superdelegates to continue to support Clinton
  • the delegate count will be close enough that unseated delegates from FL and MI will become a major issue

Whereas, if Obama could win Ohio or Texas, even by 1%, I think it would be over.

184

[QUOTE=ShadowFacts]

Whereas, if Obama could win Ohio or Texas, even by 1%, I think it would be over.
[/QUOTE]

Obama’s camp knows this all too well, his advisors are restructuring his campaign to ensure a win, or a very close match. They are focusing on getting people to the polls, not just having fun in an arena. His campaign office in CT [only because that is the one I have a connection to] is sending people to knock on doors and canvas certain demographics in TX, OH, WI, PA. There is so much support that people are waiting in cue to go do their part. Trust me the popularity of BHO is not going unnoticed by the superdelegates, as noted by certain bigwigs jumping ship from clinton to BHO.

185

I semi-follow the blogs on the Obama site and, I don’t mean this disparagingly, but those folks are nuts. As in, the Powers That Be say “Hey, help us out by calling 40,000 numbers in these states” and, later that evening, they’re saying “Thanks! Now here’s 75,000 other numbers…”

There’s some crazy-dedicated volunteers in that camp. And not just in the form of $25 donations.

186

[QUOTE=Jophiel]
I semi-follow the blogs on the Obama site and, I don’t mean this disparagingly, but those folks are nuts. As in, the Powers That Be say “Hey, help us out by calling 40,000 numbers in these states” and, later that evening, they’re saying “Thanks! Now here’s 75,000 other numbers…”

There’s some crazy-dedicated volunteers in that camp. And not just in the form of $25 donations.
[/QUOTE]

I’m part of making those phone calls, and it is incredibly organized and succinct. I don’t think there is a time when the goal has not been met, at least not in my 4 month tenure.

Anecdotally, out of every 10 calls I make 5 to 7 of the people I speak with talk my ear off about wanting to help in some way. I take their name and number, enter them into our little database, and they are used at some point in the future. So it is fair to say most people I talk to on the phone want to help Obama in some way it’s very satisfying hearing all the support.

187

The SEIU endorsement is now official.

And this:

188

[QUOTE=ShadowFacts]
I disagree, unfortunately. If Clinton wins both Texas and Ohio, even if it’s by only 5%, I predict the following:

  • lots of stories about how Obama’s momentum has been stopped, or about how momentum has shifted (whether or not that is true), leading to
  • Clinton definitely stays in until Pennsylvania, extending the contest for at least another 6 weeks
  • the delegate count will be close enough for superdelegates to continue to support Clinton
  • the delegate count will be close enough that unseated delegates from FL and MI will become a major issue

Whereas, if Obama could win Ohio or Texas, even by 1%, I think it would be over.
[/QUOTE]
You’re banking a lot on momentum. Talk of momentum was fine before Feb. 5, on the tiny playing field of Iowa, NH, NV, and SC, where winning automatically mattered more, because the delegate numbers were still trivial.

Now delegate numbers are the gold standard. Whatever delegate boost Hillary might get from a pair of 53-47 wins in TX and OH would likely be negated by losses in RI, VT, WY, and MS that day and over the next week.

The story on March 5 would be about Hillary’s wins in OH and TX. The story on March 6 would be that she’d gained almost no ground, and was all but out of time. And the stories on March 9 and 12 would be about Obama’s wins in the Wyoming caucuses and the MS primary, and his once-again expanding lead.

Then 40 days of “Hillary, isn’t it time you quit the race? Why are you still contesting this, when you can’t win?”

189

[QUOTE=Phlosphr]
I’m part of making those phone calls, and it is incredibly organized and succinct.
[/QUOTE]
Well, I hope you took my “they’re nuts” comment in the spirit of quiet awe in which they’re intended and not in the increasingly common “It’s a cult!” storyline being pressed by the media. :slight_smile:

I thought about calling but I don’t have any means of long distance that wouldn’t result in a $350 bill for my efforts.

190

Democrats in Congress and in the DNC do not want any risk of this going outside of March, let alone becoming a brokered convention.

A big “if”, but if he but if he wins next Tuesday handily, I suspect that the supers will have to start to evaluate the potential future potentialities:
[ol]
[li]Clinton might win enough in Texas and Ohio to keep the race going. She cannot win enough to end it there. Odds of it getting protracted, ending ugly, and hurting the Party’s chances in November across the ticket? High. Odds of it still being Obama even after that? Still pretty good unless she totally blows him away there.[/li][li]Obama puts it away in Texas and Ohio. Oh, not in actual number of delegates, but a loss, no matter how narrow, in either of those ends her run, even by James Carville’s estimation. The party can focus on the general and healing any wounds well ahead of time.[/li][/ol] They will have to ask themselves if they want to help make either of those two possibilities more likely than the other. If they want the former they continue to sit still or endorse HRC. If they want the latter then they start piling up behind Obama.

Now which choice is more logical is easy. Which one the Democratic leadership will actually choose is another story.

191

[QUOTE=DSeid]
Oh, not in actual number of delegates, but a loss, no matter how narrow, in either of those ends her run, even by James Carville’s estimation.
[/QUOTE]

He says that now, of course, but two weeks from now, if the polls show her losing in Texas and narrowly ahead in Ohio I wouldn’t be surprised if he sings a different tune. I do think she’ll be finished if that happens, but we may be hearing different things at the time.

192

[QUOTE=DSeid]
Democrats in Congress and in the DNC do not want any risk of this going outside of March, let alone becoming a brokered convention.

A big “if”, but if he but if he wins next Tuesday handily, I suspect that the supers will have to start to evaluate the potential future potentialities:
[ol]
[li]Clinton might win enough in Texas and Ohio to keep the race going. She cannot win enough to end it there. Odds of it getting protracted, ending ugly, and hurting the Party’s chances in November across the ticket? High. Odds of it still being Obama even after that? Still pretty good unless she totally blows him away there.[/li][li]Obama puts it away in Texas and Ohio. Oh, not in actual number of delegates, but a loss, no matter how narrow, in either of those ends her run, even by James Carville’s estimation. The party can focus on the general and healing any wounds well ahead of time.[/li][/ol] They will have to ask themselves if they want to help make either of those two possibilities more likely than the other. If they want the former they continue to sit still or endorse HRC. If they want the latter then they start piling up behind Obama.

Now which choice is more logical is easy. Which one the Democratic leadership will actually choose is another story.
[/QUOTE]

There are still many logical reasons for leadership to vote for Hillary; they may think she’ll do the better job, thus increasing the Democrat’s influence and the pushing of their agenda (whatever the hell that is). I do know that I’d be pissed if the superdelegates reversed a normal delegate victory of more than, say, 30 or general, so any superdelegate considering such a course better think that Hillary would do a MUCH better job than Obama…

193

[QUOTE=RTFirefly]
You’re banking a lot on momentum. Talk of momentum was fine before Feb. 5, on the tiny playing field of Iowa, NH, NV, and SC, where winning automatically mattered more, because the delegate numbers were still trivial.

Now delegate numbers are the gold standard. Whatever delegate boost Hillary might get from a pair of 53-47 wins in TX and OH would likely be negated by losses in RI, VT, WY, and MS that day and over the next week.

The story on March 5 would be about Hillary’s wins in OH and TX. The story on March 6 would be that she’d gained almost no ground, and was all but out of time. And the stories on March 9 and 12 would be about Obama’s wins in the Wyoming caucuses and the MS primary, and his once-again expanding lead.

Then 40 days of “Hillary, isn’t it time you quit the race? Why are you still contesting this, when you can’t win?”
[/QUOTE]

You’re right, I am banking a lot on momentum, because that’s what Obama has going for him right now and I think he’s going to need to keep it to win. Neither candidate is going to get the required majority of delegates from just voters, which means it comes down to superdelegates. I believe the superdelegates will go with Obama if he maintains his momentum and a large enough margin of pledged delegates. If he does not maintain his momentum and if Hillary picks up enough delegates to keep it close, they may give it to her. So I think his momentum and an appearance of inevitability are very important so that the supers will break for him in large numbers.

You’re last hypothetical quote only works if she really can’t win, and from quotes that Shayna has posted about Clinton sticking it out to the bitter end, I don’t think that’s going to happen until the supers abandon her en masse.

Don’t get me wrong, I hope you are all right and it’s a done deal at this point for Obama, but I don’t think it’s over yet by a long shot.

194

Damn! When the SEIU endorses a candidate, they don’t just make a public statement and move along, they work for that candidate. Their home page is covered in Obama stuff; big banners, articles & stories, “click here to help” buttons, video links. They even have pre-prepared talking points and fliers that can be printed and handed out. Damn!

195

[QUOTE=Jophiel]
Well, I hope you took my “they’re nuts” comment in the spirit of quiet awe in which they’re intended and not in the increasingly common “It’s a cult!” storyline being pressed by the media. :slight_smile:

I thought about calling but I don’t have any means of long distance that wouldn’t result in a $350 bill for my efforts.
[/QUOTE]

Well I am a bit nuts but I knew what you meant. :slight_smile:

Oh and Shayna I was on their website…if not the biggest, it is one of the most influential endorsements for this campaign. And the best part is, Clintonites have been courting them since December :slight_smile:

196

[QUOTE=Phlosphr]

Oh and Shayna I was on their website…if not the biggest, it is one of the most influential endorsements for this campaign. And the best part is, Clintonites have been courting them since December :slight_smile:
[/QUOTE]
I’m sure they revved up their courting come December, but apparently all 6 of the leading Dems took part in a “Walk A Day In Their Shoes” campaign last Summer. Several of the videos of their visits can be seen here, including Hillary’s. Obviously Obama’s has a prominent spot right on the front page (I had to dig around for Hill’s through several links to find it).

Seriously, that’s not just an endorsement, that’s a campaign, in and of itself!

197

[QUOTE=Shayna]
I’m sure they revved up their courting come December, but apparently all 6 of the leading Dems took part in a “Walk A Day In Their Shoes” campaign last Summer. Several of the videos of their visits can be seen here, including Hillary’s. Obviously Obama’s has a prominent spot right on the front page (I had to dig around for Hill’s through several links to find it).

Seriously, that’s not just an endorsement, that’s a campaign, in and of itself!
[/QUOTE]

WOW! Now that’s cool! I had no idea. And you’d think I was up on this stuff :smiley:

198

Well, well, well. This could get interesting.

199

Well, well. Interesting indeed. Will the MSM pick this up and plug it into the theme of Clinton doing anything necessary, by hook or by crook, to get the nomination? Besides sending a few more delegates Obama’s way, this could, depending on how it’s played, tarnish Hillary’s New York win.

200

[QUOTE=Shayna]
Damn! When the SEIU endorses a candidate, they don’t just make a public statement and move along, they work for that candidate.
[/QUOTE]
That’s for sure! I work alongside SEIU employees, and sometimes wear their t-shirt to work. It’s a big, strong, constituency.