Yeah, but I was raised in a Southern Baptist home by Southern Baptist parents and grandparents. I knew a lot of Southern Baptist girls and I know that guilt thing can be exploited. It would be a close race----close enough that the hippy chick is not a for certain winner. But who cares? Any orgy is better than none, right?
Sex, drugs and rock and roll…not necessarily in that order. And usually in large quantities and various combinations.
-XT
Well, there is the uncomfortable fact that despite having a compliant media at his back, his approval rating is now lower than 10 out of the 12 presidents since WWII had at the same point in his presidency. That’s got to be a worrying sign.
That said, it’s very, very early. There have been presidents who were much higher at this point and wound up leaving office with terrible ratings, and Presidents who were just about as low who wound up being very popular.
One thing that’s unquestionably true, however, is that Obama is now going to have to start living up to his image as being a brilliant politician, because the Presidency is a lot harder to manage when a President’s approval ratings are below 50%. Even members of his own party will stop trying to ride his coattails and start worrying about not being brought down by his lack of popularity. So he’s going to face more opposition in the House and Senate. Embarrassing information will start leaking that the administration doesn’t want leaked. That sort of thing. Washington plays hardball.
Another worry has got to be media backlash. Americans love to build people up to high heights, then tear them down. If the media loses faith in the guy, he may finally find himself facing hard questions and being subject to the kinds of investigations Bush had to deal with.
Obama’s numbers are actually much worse for him than Bush’s were at the same time - not because Obama is really much lower (they’re roughly the same), but Obama’s approval rating is lower despite having almost 100% support from the black community and 85% support from the Democrats. That means he’s lost an awful lot of independents. In fact, his approval rating among independents is down in the 30’s already. Since he needs those independents to win re-election, he’s got to figure out how to get them back.
If the economy turns around, he’ll benefit from it and be re-elected. But more worrying for him is what might happen to Congress, because that election is only a year away, and no one thinks the economy will be particularly good by then. This could easily be a repeat of 1994, when the Democrats were routed because of overreach.
It looks to me like Democrat’s only shot is to tack back to the center. That’s what saved Clinton. But if they continue down the lefty path and start pushing EFCA, continue pushing cap and trade, continue pushing public health care, and continue with the rest of the laundry basket of left wing policies, the Republicans are going to come surging back in a big way. America just isn’t a left-wing country, no matter how hard the denizens of the SDMB wish it was.
The approval rating of Congress is down to 30% again, and still dropping. You know what happens to the party in power when their approval rating is that low.
LOL, who’s looking this shit up? Christ on a fucking pogo ball.
But I do agree with your last 3 paragraphs.
Judging by the '08 election (when the Congressional approval rating was at 9%!), they apparently increase their number of seats in both houses.
Actually, that stat is all over the place today. I saw it on the news.
A valid point. Still, even though Congress’s approval rating was in the toilet, Bush seemed to take most of the blame for the recession.
If the economy still sucks next year, there’s no place for the Democrats to go. Maybe populism will rear its ugly head.
The folks who hate democrats and black people will not find him popular, and doubly so… And in record numbers. Obama is generally playing his hand well, and will likely in 50 years be regarded as much more “popular” than W or Nixon, or Bush I or Clinton.
As a generally left-leaning centralist apolitical member of the General Apathy party, my mental image of Obama’s presidency thusfar is one of his sleek, suited self crouched over a drain, furiously trying to plunger too-large legislation through the clogged-up pipes of Congress. Perhaps not the most eloquent metaphor, but…
Lots of deficit for the next generation (me) to pay. Sweeping, mindboggling and inconsistent financial aid for weak-kneed companies - none for others. A “health care reform” that seems intent on rattling the very foundations of our broken, broken medical system… once we figure out what it’s really about. We will close Gitmo nevermind! We will be utterly transparent not really! Hope! Change! Business as usual!
Honestly, I don’t think his presidency has been terrible so far, although I watch UHC rolling ominously towards us a sense of trepidation and cynical pessimism. Despite emphatic campaign promises to the contrary, a paradigm-shifting politician he is not. This sense of public betrayal will, I believe, continue to accelerate. Only the promising stock market is holding back the floodwaters.
Personally, and with full admittance that I don’t debate politics much, I expect a severe backlash within six months and a slow recovery from there, barring any economic catastrophes. Better than W and Nixon, worse than Bush I and Clinton.
Obama has been President for a scant 6 months. It’s vastly premature to make any predictions or conclusions. We won’t see the economic results for another 18 months or more, for instance.
Bush I seems to get a lot more respect (from both sides) than he did when he was president. I admit I was pretty young when he was in office but I recall attitudes towards him ranging from hate to ridicule to “meh.” I think he might be getting a pass through rose-colored hindsight glasses, and because his son was such a train wreck that it makes him look good in comparison.
I think he has gotten a boost in respect in retrospect. But I also think that he was always respected ( if not liked ) more than Bush II ended up being by most people, simply because he really isn’t an utter incompetent like his son. I never liked Bush I at all, but I never thought he was someone who had ruined everything he touched his whole life primarily by sheer ineptitude.
A pity the Board doesn’t have sound effects, that quote needs a background of a churchy choir so we get the proper mood for Sacred Dogma.
Look, Sam, the guy won. Handily. He didn’t hide his wild-eyed socialist agenda from anybody, he ran on it, and won. So, if America is centrist, well, so is Obama. Or, conversely, if Obama is a leftist, then so is America.
Yes, Obama is clearly losing popularity. But thats not because his stock has fallen with the right, they already hate his guts with the rodent fury of a thousand hamsters. His stock has fallen with the left, who are quick to sense betrayal in compromise. You could say that Obama hasn’t been Obama enough for them.
But such is progress. You fight like hell for a little something, you nail down that little something, and then you start a new round of negotiations for the next something. Lather, rinse, repeat, progress.
And yes, its taking a lot longer than we thought.
Gallup has calculatedhis average rating for the second quarter of his presidency: April 20 to July 19 and compared it to other post-war presidents. He has done pretty well with 62: one point higher than Reagan. Clinton and Bush(2) had 44 and 56 respectively.
For July 13-19 Obama enjoyeda 56% rating from independents only a few points below his overall rating.
There is no question that Obama’s approval ratings have faded a bit in the last few weeks though we should note that he was doing 60 on Gallup’s tracking poll just a week back. His numbers will likely stay in the 50’s until the economy recovers and then climb to the low 60’s. If a serious health care bill gets passed by the end of the year his numbers could climb even before the economy.
Smith we’ve got a gap to fill,give me two thousand words on …oh I dont know…Obama might be the least popular president lately or something,and then next week Is there a possibility that Hilary Clinton is sleeping around AND is a secret member of the Communist party of America and is often seen drinking with DERTRIHS?
Just fill the space mate.
The word “possibly” makes it a completely safe and pointless prognostication.
-Joe
Heh, I can tell you from experience, yes there are. 
A friend of mine who installs sound systems in a lot of churches in West Virginia had been telling me vague stories of what he called “idolization” of Dubya. I didn’t disbelieve him, but I thought he was being hyperbolic in his choice of words.
That was until I saw the movie “Jesus Camp”, which prompted me to ask my friend if that was what he was talking about. He confirmed that he saw this all the time, down to the lifesize cardboard figure of Dubya used in the service.
Anyone denying that there were plenty of Bush supporters who attached a religious significance to him are either ignorant (as I was once) or in denial.
I think Sam disagrees with this point, but I’m with you. Obama certainly ran on this health care reform. Both he and McCain ran on cap and trade, though obviously McCain was just kidding. They debated bailouts and he made his position clear.
The argument about a bait-and-switch largely rests on broken promises he made to the left of the party, not the right. Breaking those promises might mean he’s pulled a bait-and-switch, but not in the direction Sam thinks.
He also ran on fiscal conservatism. He promised a net spending decrease. He said that the era of government racking up big deficits was over, and from now on would be pay as you go.
Yes, he said health care had to be reformed, but he also said that any reforms he implemented would save money, not cost money, would not change anyone’s relationship with their doctor, or affect any current insurance plans. In other words, he promised pie-in-the-sky.
The same is true with his ‘green’ proposals. He promised that the environment could be saved while actually creating new jobs and lowering the deficit.
So he made big promises to both the right and left, and reconciled them with smoke and mirrors. He promised you guys that Guantanamo would be shut down and indefinite detention would be ended, but he never explained what he’d do with all the people who are there.
Most candidates wouldn’t get away with this charade. But Obama had the media at his back, and they refused to ask the hard questions. So now the rhetoric is colliding with reality, and both sides are being disappointed. Hence the rapid slide in his poll numbers.
Where are you getting this “rapid slide in his poll numbers” from, Sam? I think you’re confusing his ratings on how he’s handling health care (around or less than 50%) with his overall approval rating (somewhere near 60).