Is she a terrorist too? :rolleyes:
She has a funny name; of course she’s a terrorist! Sheesh.
Scandals have a definite trajectory. It takes time for them to get traction, and then it takes some time for the candidates to fight them and/or for the people to forget about them. You can clearly see this effect with Rev. Wright.
So the question here is where on the bell curve will this story fall? I don’t think Obama has enough to to successfully dismiss the issue, but I also doubt that McCain has enough time to spread the word with maximum efficiency. It’s transparently petty bullshit, so he can’t do it in person through rallies, interviews, and official mailing lists and calls. He has to rely on back-channel muck rakings. And no one watches the news on Saturdays. I just don’t think the undecided or reluctant Obama leaners will find out about this thing in very big numbers before Tuesday.
But assume that I’m wrong. Assume that this story does do its maximum damage before Tuesday. I still think that this won’t hurt much. Guilt by association is too worn out to do any more damage without something truly terrible happening.
It’s the weekend. Nobody heard nothing.
Sunday morning may have a mention or two about it. You know the right-wingers will bring it up. But it doesn’t rate a headline and immigration is a dead issue this election year anyway.
I don’t know what else Obama could have to dismiss it. He never helped her obtain her visas, he last saw her when she was on a legal visa four years ago, he last spoke to her two years ago when she called to say she was in Boston but didn’t visit (I presume asking her about her legal status wasn’t part of the conversation) and he had no current knowledge of her status.
Unless someone turns up payments for her ultilities signed by Barack Obama or something, I don’t see how he’s really tied into her. I’m not happy about this, of course, but there seems to be less of a story here than there was a few hours ago. Fortunately the sotry broke during a dead news period (late Fri night into Sat morning) and later reports on it will hopefully include the above caveats. It’s a lot less damaging than the initial “Obama has an illegal alien relative!”
And, what pray tell did he omit?
A “very hot, very emotional topic” that was barely touched on during the Presidential debates right?
“It’s the economy stupid.” Right wing partisan repubs cannot discuss the economy simply because if they do, they know they’ll lose, so on to any and all ad hominems.
Not so much what is said, but who says it. No doubt, many rightard “surrogates” will scream bloody murder. That won’t hint at desperation, in and of itself. But if McCain or Mooseolini give this any public attention in person, that will give off the sweet fragrance of despair.
Still, some lucky break, huh? That this information just happened to stumble into the light just a few days before election time, huh? I mean, what are the odds?
But if they go nuts over it, and she turns out to be an aged, crippled and fearful old lady hounded by Faux News…
Now that I think about it, I can’t imagine how this is going to play well for the Republicans. “Deport the illegal!” isn’t exactly going to resonate with the Hispanic voters.
About the only people that are going to be moved by this are … well, the people already voting for McCain.
I think this is a significant issue. No one seriously thinks Obama has any responsibility here, but many voters are not serious, rational people. It isn’t so much about her being in the country illegally, as it is that she was living in public housing and may have donated to the Obama campaign.
It is a mistake to assume that all the xenophobes and racists wouldn’t have voted for Obama anyway. Lots of them are planning to vote for Obama despite his race. I can think of one acquaintance of mine in Wisconsin whose mild racism would not have been an obstacle for him voting for Obama, but upon hearing this story, might just swing his vote.
Granted, these people are also not watching Cable news shows on the weekend. Nor are they likely to be surfing the internet. But if this propagates quickly in the next days, I think this will play very well in PA, and it seems likely that the McCain camp knew that. Not enough to tip the election, but significant.
I don’t know PA, but what good does it do McCain to win over Pennsylvania if it costs him Arizona and Texas to do it? Attacking illegal immigrants won’t be without cost.
I disagree. I think it is pretty much totally costless if framed as an attack about the donations. The campaign need not say more than that for it to become a significant story, and the relevant demographic will find the details, probably some fake details too. Attacking illegals is a successful electoral strategy pretty much all over the country, including the Southwest. But even if I’m wrong about that, I see no reason why documented Hispanic immigrants will feel attacked by complaints about a Kenyan undocumented immigrant donating to the campaign.
From TPM:
Interestingly the article is titled “Breaking the law for McCain”…
We’ve already seen illegal leaks about ongoing bogus investigation into ACORN, what’s next?
Exactly!! This is why his surrogates released this bit of info in the grapevine. He is severely getting pounded in Arizona and thoroughly disliked by many latinos there who believe he speaks with a forked tongue.
Don’t be surprised if John McCain loses Arizonas 10 Electoral College Votes.
Barack Obama has the game contained in John McCain’s Red Zone. He ain’t gonna punt - that’s for sure. He will score a field goal or a TOUCH DOWN. There will be no fumbling and no pass plays. Barack will keep the ball.
I think it’s short-sighted to ignore the public housing issue. Given that Obama’s tax plan is being perceived as somewhat socialist/welfare-related, I could see some nasty fallout along the lines of “Look! Obama’s trying to cook up even bigger payouts for illegal immigrants like his aunt who all want free rides on the backs of taxpayers.”
(Please note the emphasis on perception. I’m talking about perception, not reality here. It doesn’t matter whether or not Obama knew about his aunt or whether or not a non-tax paying illegal immigrant would be able to get the tax rebate-based payout that Obama’s proposing. All that matters is how the masses perceive it on Tuesday.)
I doubt that this will be much of an issue. She isn’t a close relative and Obama has nothing to do her immigration status. The McCain campaign isn’t going to raise the issue which means it won’t get much media attention. It would be astonishing if this issue cost Obama more than half a point at this stage in any given state. At the most it could flip a very close state like Indiana but it certainly won’t cost him the election.
Well, there are lots of different ways to raise the issue. They don’t have to mention it in their stump speeches to get media attention for it.
More things to take into account:
Obama has remarked that the law needs to be followed.
Even when I was an illegal in the 80’s I did not bother to broadcast that fact to all family members.
McCain was also in favor of measures that if passed before could have helped Obama’s aunt and make this a moot point.
It is indeed important to notice that if Republicans in the administration broke the law to get a propaganda point out that then all republicans that do not condemn this deserve to be beaten and soundly on November 4.
Thats what Guantanamo is for. Get her in a cell immediately. We have to know her connections or we will not be safe.
If the McCain campaign doesn’t raise the issue publicly the media won’t bother with it much. If they do raise it there are a couple of avenues of backlash. First this could like a last-minute dirty trick by the McCain campaign or the Bush administration. Secondly there is a potential for backlash among immigrants. You might ask why legal immigrants who vote would be bothered by this. But immigration isn’t entirely a rational issue on the other side either and it’s not just about the technicalities of immigration status either. Immigration is partly about race and ethnicity and about who counts as a “real” American. If the Republican party is seen as going after an illegal immigrant purely for last minute political gain there could be a backlash among Hispanic voters. Probably only a small backlash but enough to counter whatever small gain the GOP makes with the issue.
The largest glaring factor for most undecideds will most likely be that McCain has not severed his ties with the Bush Dynasty. That he has not whole heartedly denounced Bush’s policies and that a McCain presidency would look WAAAY too close to a Bush Presidency. And by in large that will not fly. I’ll mention, this is the ONLY reason my republican family members are voting Obama.