McCain is already advertising in Texas. And yeah, it’s a bit unlikely, but it’s not as bad as trying to get TN or KY, both of which have ~20 point leads, last I checked. I’d also send the Clintons down there, as apparently they’re very popular in south Texas.
Execute. Get those new voters, who go for him by a large majority, out. He’s worked in Chicago - if there is one thing he should have learned there, it’s get out the vote. Avoiding the cemeteries, one hopes.
Dang if you’re not right. Gawsh. This from a team that has been wont to even respond to Obama ads in Indiana?
Odd stuff. Maybe Team McCain has some reason to be afraid there? (Obviously I think they do.)
Oh, and this brought up inspired by the Rolling Stone article thread - don’t go stupidly negative, even if the accusations are completely true. Fight back as needed but stay on your game.
Over the past several days it’s become evident that there are maybe a dozen states where McCain doesn’t have to be afraid.
Let’s see. Idaho, Oklahoma, Arizona, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Wyoming, Alaska, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana.
Of those, I’d say Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and Oklahoma are probably very safe. Since I’ve heard Montana tossed around as a pick-off, I’ll assume Idaho and Wyoming are possibles. The Dakotas, Kansas, and Nebraska have progressive, populist traditions (hell, Tom Daschle was from South Dakota, as was George McGovern) and are pretty close to Iowa, Wisonsin, and Minnesota. Alaska was tossed around, and Palin is beginning to stink like day-old fish up there because of the McCain campaign’s forced non-response to Troopergate, but he’s probably still pretty safe up there. Clinton still might be able to pull off Arkansas, although it’s highly unlikely.
West VA? Any possibility of that one going blue?
ETA: Forgot Utah. That’ll go Democrat when pigs fly. I’d say McCain can probably count fairly safely on fifteen states.
It’s a possibility. A little slim but a possibility nonetheless. WV is a VERY union state…the United Mine Workers is a strong voice. Considering what happened at Blacksville #2 Mine when the NRA tried to film an anti-Obama ad there, I’d say it’s a definite possibility.
Montana: the last two polls have shown McCain with +9-11. Doubt that’ll change, but if he can get Baucus and Tester to hold some rallies, you never know.
Arkansas: with two Dem Senators and a Dem Governor, this state isn’t as red as it seems. The latter is holding a rally with Clinton in Little Rock next Friday, so don’t count them out quite yet.
Mississippi: largely the same, the latest poll by Rasmussen shows an 8-point lead. Unfortunately, Obama has no Governor or Senators to help here, but with a 37% black population, you never know what might happen.
West Virginia: McCain is +6, and as jayjay mentioned, that miners’ event when the NRA ran that ad may have long-term effects. Again, I wouldn’t count it out, especially given that West Virginia is next to three battleground states and being subjected to ads all over the place.
Those four will probably go for McCain, but I’d say each has the potential to make him sweat.
It always surprises me that West Virginia goes as red as it does. But then, it surprises me when a lot of poor states go red. You’d think they’d recognize their own economic self-interest, but apparently guns and culture wars count for a lot in such places. The fact that McCain is the rich guy with the Admiralty heritage who married an heiress, while Obama was the poor kid with a single mom who bootstrapped himself into Columbia and Harvard I guess just makes them feel, what - maybe inadequate? Certainly they like to “blame” it on Affirmative Action, and dismiss him as an Elitist, just as every time I hear someone come up with something deeper than I would have thought of wrt to arts or philosophy, I tend to immediately think “Pretentious.” Sour grapes is pervasive in our culture.
Keep Hezbollah kicked out of Lebanon. That’ll do it.
I’ve never felt inspired by a political candidate. I honestly consider such feelings to be a form of weakness. But I want to believe.
Obama makes me want to believe. My interest is what kind of administration he’s planning. The Presidency itself is not as important as the kinds of people the President puts in positions of power and influence.
Obama has two debates to prepare for and then I suspect he’ll just increase the energy of whatever he is already doing.
I trust that on election day he is going to organize a powerful voter drive. Maybe even have lawyers on hand to stop corruption at the polls.
Things are close in Florida, Ohio, Nevada, Virgina, North Carolina, Missouri and Indiana.
Four of those states are states that Bush won decisively in 2004. McCain is in a bad place to have them so close. Obama might want to focus more energy if any on the above eight states. Maybe really hammer away at FL and OH in the last two weeks.
After those states, next on the Republican chopping block are Georgia, Montana, and Texas. McCain has them all by about ten points. If things don’t get better there I would pull money out and send it to the battleground states. Though part of me wants him to keep trying in Texas just because of the pure joy I would get from seeing it turn blue.
McCain’s new campaign strategy: Pure negative
The article mentions that the campaign has pulled its only positive ad (“Original Mavericks”) and will be concentrating exclusively on tearing Obama down.
Will it matter? Should Obama spend time and money trying to refute the claims made about him or concentrate on the issues?
Last time McCain went negative was before the conventions and he trimmed Obamas lead from +5 to about +1.
If he can get McCain to blow his top at the debates it will be over. Obama was way too polite last time. McCain is Bush ,just the next in line. If Obama can get the spoiled rich boy to show his true colors ,it will be done.
Don’t forget Pennsylvania and Michigan. McCain has NOT given up in Pennsylvania, and he hasn’t given up entirely in Michigan, well though LOUNE and gonzomax have done (congrats, you guys!). We are not home free in the blue states, and it’s a mistake to think we are.
Nebraska’s splitting of electoral votes has drawn attention* from Obama. Can he do it? Probablly not, but on the off-chance that he can get college students to actually show up and vote, possibly.
- Article from about a month ago.
Obama’s lead into August was closer to three points according to the RCP graph. He held a 5 point lead in July when he went overseas but it faded soon after (either because of negative ads or just a temporary bounce). Somewhat interesting to note is that McCain’s level of support is about where it was on August 1st whereas Obama’s level of support is three points higher than it was back then. Mainly taken from uncommitted voters – there was a 10% undecided level in August and a 7% level now. I think the first debate convinced people on the fence that Obama is presidental enough to vote for.
I’m not trying to be pollyanna about Obama’s chances in the face of an avalanche of negative ads. I hope he has a plan in place to mitigate a month’s worth of “Obama is a radical leftist who’ll send an army of godless terrorists and gangsters raise your taxes and slaughter your unborn babies” advertising. But McCain has a higher slope to climb now than he did in August.
I love it: Omaha for Obama.
I think Obama himself needs to be cool and polite. If the deterioration of his hopes for victory leads to a McCain temper eruption, fine and dandy, but Obama shouldn’t be trying to cause it (except insofar as running a solid Obama campaign makes McCain increasingly tense and desperate).
Ah, but by cooly, politely, and with calm direct eye contact calling McCain out for dishonorable campaigning and dishonest claims, Obama will be poking the bear with a stick.