Since the primaries Obama has proved to be a formidable politican. His organization and planning have really proven that he knows what he is doing. He’s surrounded himself with the right campaign team, he’s remained relatively above the fray in terms of keeping a calm, cool and collected demeanor and has truly brought the notion of a man of color making it to the highest position in the land to a veritable reality. However, his work is not done.
My contention is that he knows all too well that polling ahead a month out is still in the realm of “anything can happen”. I’m sure McCain knows this too. However, that being said, it would appear that the republican machine is at very least, losing some steam and more importantly to the democrats losing the sturdy polling numbers that they should have right now.
Thinking of Obama as a strategist, I wonder what his endgame strategy is for the coming month? I surmise he will be concentrating efforts in FL, CO, OH, MI, PA and will be spending heavily on ads and appearances. He is still drawing huge crowds and I know if he were coming within say 200 miles of me in RI I would go to see him.
I’d expect him to continue to stay away from Palin, and to continue to hammer McCain on the issues. Much like Biden did last evening. Will he go negative? Will he change anything in this last month to further his success and an eventual win? Will he continue as is and simply ride the wave? What could/should he change? How about the next debate? If McCain takes off the gloves and begins hammering Obama, should he: fight back, not buy into it, or just hammer the issues?
I think Obama might do best to just keep doing what he’s doing. McCain is desperate and seems to be prone to taking longshots and hoping he’ll win. Obama can then react to that to seem more level-headed.
Well, if he is ahead (and he seems to be) he’s a fool if he does anything different. Just concentrate on no major gaffes in the debates, don’t say much specific about the bail out.
I don’t think he has to go negative. He can allow his allies in the media to do that for him, while he acts above it all. He needs to start acting Presidential.
He’s been acting presidential since around February.
In answer to the OP, apparently the Obama campaign is phonebanking the deaf (through video, internet and traditional TTY) in the St. Louis metropolitan area. There are estimates that there are roughly 200,000 hearing-impaired residents of the area, and that may translate into 70,000 voters. Apparently, political campaigns rarely attempt deaf outreach.
Obama’s website also has captioned video clips of his speeches.
I have no idea if the outreach is being done in other places than the St. Louis area, but I have no idea why it wouldn’t be.
I agree I don’t think he should be changing much of anything.
I just wonder what else the GOP are going to try? They tried a female running mate, but unfortunately for them that appears to be backfiring. I think that coupled with the economy is probably not going to bode well over the next month for the pubbies.
Good, all the better to get his message out to more channel surfers.
Frankly, I’m simply happy to finally be talking about endgame last month strategy. WHohoo!!
I do not think it is possible to avoid the bailout. He will get cornered and a solid position would help. Problem is the people are against it and the politicians are for it. He will piss off a lot of people one way or the other.
He and McCain both supported it. As far as that goes, they’re equally culpable.
On the other hand, McCain couldn’t rally the Republicans like he said he would; and Obama can always mention that the Republicans wouldn’t vote for it until it had a bunch of pork added in, which can’t be good for McCain’s claims that he has the power to cut spending.
Obama doesn’t really have to do a whole lot more to win this election. In terms of playing the media, etc, all he needs to do is simply react to whatever crazy shit McCain has up his sleeve next. Obama’s proven to be very good on this point. He simply plays the game better than McCain, and especially so from a position of power. When Obama’s ahead, he simply doesn’t fumble.
As far as ground-game is concerned, I think the protracted primary battle will have been a big help in the end (Thanks HRC’s ego!). The number of registered democrats in PA is probably saving him alone. Sarah Palin is shooting herself in the foot for those even remotely stupid enough to trade their sex-based votes for Hillary for McCain. I think this week-long McCain suspending of the campaing / Palin interview madness / economy collapse is really what will be looked at as the final nail in the McCain coffin.
But Obama should continue to play to his ground game strength. It’s simply that easy. He’s ahead in every aspect, and the ground game could really help him put this one away.
Now, knowing McCain, if he goes into November very far behind, he’s going to roll the dice once again. I expect at least two more rolls of the dice by McCain, really. But then again, maybe not because I think we’ll all see it for what it is. People don’t like political flailing. It seems weak. Certainly not Presidential.
There will be Republican shady maneuvers as always. Disenfranchisement will likely be attempted, but at least we’re ready this time. Or as ready as one can be.
So Obama carries on as planned. If McCain tries to pull a fast one of some kind on Obama on November 1, I expect it will probably end VERY badly for him. Each gamble seems to be taking a toll on the campaign.
What Obama needs to do is make sure his supporters to actually vote. My fear is that too many will look at the opinion polls and think “we’ve won” and then not vote. This is especially true since so many of his supporters are in groups that often have low turn out.
And I think he’s doing the right things. His campaign is large and well organized, and I’m guessing they’re ready to get the vote out.
Indeed. It’s a dangerous and easy mindset to get in. I’m in a somewhat similar position, being in Arizona. I would laugh my head off if McCain couldn’t carry Arizona, but it’s extremely unlikely. I know my vote will probably get lost, and it probably wouldn’t matter if I went to the polls or not. But if I and others in my position choose to skip voting, then there’s no chance at all Arizona will go for Obama. Can’t win the lottery if you don’t buy a ticket.
His next personal play is the “town hall” debate. Subtly goad McCain by direct eye contact and factual contradictions of his BS. Be respectful and cool about it but call him out on the nature of his campaign and of his judgment. McCain is due to lose it and losing it in that venue will be fatal. Especially if Obama himself remains unflappable.
Keep the ground game moving. A superior ground game is worth 5 points they say and Obama’s is far superior to McCain’s. Don’t even risk that one electoral vote in Maine.
Put some last minute additional money in Spanish language media in Texas. Get Richardson to blanket Hispanic venues there. It will go unanswered and while I admit Texas is a longshot, it is one that is possible with an unprecedented but not unrealistic turnout among Latinos. Gawd, I hope that Barr tries to pick up some support there! I gotta think that there are some conservatives who are a bit miffed at how much McCain is dissing Bush in his attempt to create distance.
Keep the ads going and while keeping the focus on McCain’s policies being the same as Bush’s also advertise his erratic and impulsive judgment. Obama now has the advantage in perceived temperment for the job. Capitalize on that.
In short keep control of the ball and create turnover situations.
McCain’s only serious hope is some kind of national security crisis which shifts the election to his perceived strengths. Obama needs to prepare a contingency plan for such a crisis so that the political fallout is minimal. The first debate has helped his credibility in that area and Joe Biden is an asset in that regard too. The Palin pick means that McCain might not benefit much from a foreign policy crisis.
The other thing Obama needs to do is to hammer home the differences between his tax plan and McCain’s. Not only is giving a tax cut to the vast majority of families, he is giving a bigger tax cut to the average family (i.e. making less than 100,000) than McCain. Obama needs to make it clear that most families will be paying higher taxes under McCain.
I’m starting to think a national security crisis wouldn’t help McCain - it would either leave things unchanged, or help Obama. Because when even Charles Krauthammer says Obama comes across as being the one more likely to keep his head in a crisis, you know the game has changed on this.
I think Biden gave a very good assist with this last night, both with respect to taxes and health insurance.
I think his ad campaign in the last month has to focus on how important it is for every citizen of every political persuasion to vote - that it is a precious right and essential duty, and that we should think back on the close elections we have experienced in recent years and know that there are no guarantees anywhere. Actually, these could be 527 ads as well; they don’t need to be Obama ads.
What’s the financial situation look like right now? What’s the campaign’s current balance, at what rate are they spending, and at what rate are they taking in new money? I suspect that they still have a tidy balance, which means they might be stepping up activity (ads, paid campaign workers, etc.) in the last lap. Don’t do anything too different, but do more of it.
The game has certainly changed. The Media is loving every minute of this, and concerts for Obama are drawing tens of thousands.
Basically, Palin is not going to become The Professor in four weeks. Until the final vote is tallied she’s Gilligan.
As of 8/31 he had about $77 million on hand and has had three consecutive quarters of raising more than he has spent. He raised a record $66 million in August alone but still
