Coal is facing a “perfect storm” (grey-eyed Athena, how I hate that term) of several environmental regulations, a sagging economy, and cheap shale gas from fracking. And to a lesser extent, in some markets milder winters and summers.
But how much of it is Obama’s fault? Sure, Obama could have halted several environmental regulations, especially the Big 4 which are slamming coal: Coal Combustion Residues, Air Toxics, CSAPR, and 316(b). But all of these were in development since before he decided to run for President. Yes, even the evil, hated Bush Administration was moving some of these along (some under different titles), just not exceedingly quickly.
But all of those factors combined, according to the 2011 NERC report, would not have been responsible for 1/2 the coal plant closings we have had in the last year. Cheap gas has devastated coal, and combined with the impacts of the aforementioned environmental legislation, we may be facing a permanent 10-20% shift (absolute value) from coal to gas, and the possibility that within 5 years coal will be well behind gas in terms of electricity production.
A lot of my clients are closing their small coal plants (“small” meaning under 250MW, which actually is somewhat large) because they would have to add an FGD scrubber, SCR, ACI+FF, or worse onto their plants to keep them running, and when you find the net present value of those costs and compare it to switching to gas…there’s no competition.
Of course, when gas returns to $8 or higher an MBTU, people are going to see electric bills skyrocket. And gas bills too, duh.
What is Obama’s fault is the banning of all new coal plants via his ruling of no more than 1,000 lbm CO2 per MW*hr of electricity generation. The only coal plants which could meet this - in theory, mind you - are CCS equipped plants, which except for some tiny test-bed plants, don’t exist. He doesn’t even give any credit for biomass unless it’s nearly a complete coal-biomass conversion.
I don’t have a lot to criticize with Obama’s energy policy because…well, there really doesn’t seem to be one. Aside from his new coal plant ban and the usual EPA legislation focused on coal which continues to evolve over time, from all appearances he seems to be mostly stepping back and letting the free market work.