Galluphas him up over 50% for the first time in 3 years. He’s approve over disapprove by 7 (51 to 44) while he’s spent most of the last two and a half years in the negatives, often by 10 the other way.
Why? And if it persists will it have impact on the margin of Clinton’s victory?
Honestly I am not sure how much is chicken vs egg with the politics. Is this the improving jobs numbers (“real unemployment” having peaked during his first two years at over 17% now down to 9.7%) and how much is Clinton’s singing of his praises and the compare contrast with the much focused upon GOP alternatives (who do of course repeat the mantra of how horrible Obama is but who of course tear at each other more).
Perhaps the electorate are looking at his potential successors and thinking that Obama isn’t really all that bad compared to what we’re going to have to choose between in the fall.
I’m going on no research at all on this, but didn’t Bush see a slight lift in his abysmal numbers as he neared the end of his last term? I wonder if it’s just people being slightly more forgiving for a president whose time in office is winding down.
I think the combination of GOP intransigence about the Supreme Court and the spectacle of the debates help make people realize that maybe this Obama guy ain’t so shabby.
My guess: combination of consistent decent-to-good economic news; progress and optimism on foreign policy breakthroughs (Iran and Cuba); praise from Democratic presidential candidates and the Republican candidates looking so awful and undignified; lack of any big negative things (like a major terrorist attack in the US); and random polling noise.
There’s been lots of volatility over that poll, though, so it may not mean much unless it lasts. If it lasts through election day, then it does bode very well for the Democratic candidate.
A lot of disapproval ratings are pushed. People dislike a politician because they’re told he or she is unlikable rather than because of any actual evidence.
Obama’s political opponents have been pushing negatives against him all these years. But with the election cycle entering its peak, they’re not busy attacking other targets. The sources that usually are busy telling stories about how terrible Obama is are now busy telling stories about how terrible Clinton and Sanders and Trump are.
It looks like he was still in free fall at this point in the year, dropping from approval of 34 at the start of the year to 25 as the election got close and into November and then after the election moved up to 34 just as he was handing over the office. His low point hit in October with 71 disapprove to 25 approve.
So only yes for a very narrow definition of “neared the end” that was after the election of his successor.
I’m gonna say it’s too early to say it isn’t noise. His approval ratings were negative just a week ago.
However, what Little Nemo says has a lot of truth to it: while some pols have bad approval ratings because they’ve earned them, others have bad ratings because of a shit-ton of negative propaganda.
During Obama’s first term, IIRC, Hillary’s approval ratings were quite good, because the right-wing Wurlitzer hadn’t had reason to pull them down yet. Now, after three years of Benghazi!, email ‘scandal’, and resurrection of some of her husband’s accusers, they’re not doing so hot. Funny thing, that.
Anyhow, it wouldn’t surprise me if Obama’s ratings improved this year, simply because the big guns will be aimed at the Evil Witch Hillary.
Also, Obama has made his strongest gains at the times the Republicans in Congress acted most strongly against him. We’re currently going through another part of that with the SCOTUS nomination. With McConnell et al being intransigent it makes Obama look like the adult in the room and his numbers improve.
Double checking - behind a firewall, sorry - Obama’s approval numbers held steady and even ticked up a bit during the whole shutdown thing in 2013. Congress learned a bit of a lesson and laid off the histrionics and his numbers declined again.
It’s not entirely unlike how it went with Clinton/Gingrich way back when. Every time Gingrich got really aggressive and personal about it Clinton’s numbers went up. More republican leaders should remember which one had to resign out of the fights those two had.
I think it’s this, plus the fact that some portion of the people who normally disapprove of Obama are Democrats who don’t think he’s liberal enough, and during an election year a lot of those people might be inclined to close ranks and say they approve anyway. IIRC, his approval rate ticked up for most of 2012, too.
Republican intransigence about even considering a Supreme Court nominee from President Obama has reminded many Democrats why he has had difficulty getting things done.
And the parade of grotesques that party is offering to replace him makes him look even better.
but but but… Unemployment is at the lowest level in years! That’s bad, right? We don’t want the figures to be low! We want the best! The highest numbers!
Obama is bad! Terrible! He only delivers these low numbers!!!
I am pretty sure that there are some Republican voters who think EXACTLY these thoughts.
