What would a Obama second term be like in terms of legislation? :dubious:
We’ll know soon enough. It depends, of course, on who controls the legislature, since that’s where the legislation comes from.
My hypothesis:
Obama will become more liberal, and will use executive orders to pass legislation that Congress would otherwise delay or outright block.
For example, he’s already affirmed his support for SSM. If he gets reelected, I see him issuing an executive order on SSM.
An executive order saying what? He can’t make states recognize same-sex marriages by executive order.
He can’t even make the federal gov’t recognize SSM with an executive order.
Why not?
Defense of Marriage Act
He can’t even make himself recognize SSM by executive order!
Less likely to legislate what happens in my DIL’s oviducts and womb?
Executive orders cannot overturn existing law?
No, they cannot. An executive order is a formal exercise of the President’s executive power. They cannot trump Congressional legislation. Usually, it is a request to the executive’s appointments to interpret the law, to the extent they are permitted to do so in their discretion, in the way the President wishes.
Right. He’s pretty much already done everything he can on the SSM front by ordering Justice not to defend DOMA. That’s a battle for either the courts or the legislature at this point.
His second term will be primarily defined by the very first negotiation (perhaps even in the lame-duck session). There is a whole host of fiscal issues - the “cliff” - that have to be resolved by the end of the year or very early next year. All of the two Bush-era tax cuts expire, sequestration kicks in, the payroll tax cuts expire, and a whole host of smaller things that this deadlocked Congress has kicked down the road. I think that battle will define his second term - whether it’s another stop-gap measure or a “grand bargain”.
I hope they take Romney’s tax return and use it as a road map for getting rid of tax loopholes. I’d also like to see a single payer system put in place and a no-more-boots-on-the-ground approach to helping out other countries.
He will replace Ginsburg and Scalia or Thomas, maybe both.
I should have added that even beyond the fiscal cliff negotiations, perhaps the most important thing a second Obama term would bring is a veto of any attempt to eliminate, curtail, or otherwise impeded the implementation of the Affordable Care Act. So the exchanges and insurance reform will in fact go into effect in 2014 and we can begin to see if this free-market approach to health-care reform is as good a model as Mr. Romney used to think it was.
There’s a reasonable chance of passing some version of immigration reform. Especially if the Dems hold the Senate. It will obviously be a battle with the House, and much will depend on how cohesive they will remain after a 2012 white house loss (if that indeed happens). But I still think that’s the likeliest big picture change.
There’s a lot of room for compromise on energy policy. Obama will undoubtedly OK the gas pipeline once political implications are removed. There’s similarly room for compromise on finding alternatives to Yucca Mountain, perhaps in NM or TN, both of which I suspect would be happy to see the money to develop a salt dome. Both items would be good policy and are broadly consistent with both parties’ positions.
Tax reform is plausible. There’s certainly room for lowering rates in exchange for greater offsets in deleting exemptions–something both sides agree with in theory if not in practice.
Patent reform could conceivably be on the plate.
And, although it appears to be anathema to the House GOP right now, I think there’s a chance for some medium-sized bills investing in infrastructure. The logic of borrowing at functionally 0% interest to pay for things we will definitely have to pay for eventually, in order to put slack labor to work now, is just too irrefutable for even the House GOP to resist for another four years. Call me an optimist.
Would you want them to? What would be the point of having a Legislature if the Executive branch could overturn existing law?
Ginsburg maybe. She’ll be 80 by the start of his next term and is rumored to be in poor health.
But Scalia? He may be 76 but I haven’t heard any rumors about his health. And there’s no way short of death he’ll leave the court - and that’s if Romney wins. If Obama wins, death won’t be sufficient.
And Thomas? He’s a mere lad of 64.
Yeah it really saddens my heart to think that I’ll be probably 45-50 years old or older before fucking Thomas gets off the court. Goddamn.
There’s a bunch of stuff that happens non matter who gets elected (e.g. Keystone pipeline)
But there are a few things Obama’s presidency will have the a Romney presidency might not.
More likely to reach nuclear disarmament deal with Russia.
More likely to do something about Syria.
More likely to have tax and spending reform a la simspon bowles.
More likely to get an Obamacare “fix” (perhaps a public option).
More likely to see the tea party get thrown out on its ass.
More likely to see some movement on federal recognition of same sex marriage.
More likely to see the Dream Act or something like it.
This is not going to be a blow out race but I think it is clear to everyone that Republicans have been obstructionists. I suppose you could say that they were only obstructing things they hated (so it was their duty to obstruct these things) but half the shit Obama wanted were originally Republican ideas or had garnered significant Republican support in the past.