Richardson’s ethnicity would be a plus for the reasons mentioned, but it could also be a minus in that you would have a black and a latino on the ticket. I don’t know how much of a factor that would be. It seems to me that Richardson would be an obvious choice for Sec State and I think he would like that better anyway.
Sam Nunn can’t be discounted. He has tons of experience, is super-knowledgeable on defense (a must in this race as McCain will try to portray himself as the only one who can defend America), has big appeal with independents and is from the south. Could he put Georgia into play? That’s a must for McCain and no one ever speaks of it as a swing state, but with record turnouts from black voters and a native son on the ticket I would think it could go blue. Bill Clinton was able to carry the state. If he’s not the VP, he would have to be on a very short list for Sec Def.
Anthony Zinni has to be considered as well. Again McCain is going to go with fear as his main asset in the campaign. He will have a harder time selling the idea that only he can defend America with a 4-star Cent. Command general on the ticket.
Let me ask this a different way. Rather than specific names, what are the needs that Obama can use a VP to serve that he needs most? Pick from the following list or add your own. Please feel free to rank order. The importance of the need helps decide who is the best choice.
Shoring up support among Clintonistas.
Support in a particular swing state. Which one is most important?
Support in a region like the Plains, or Rocky Mountain states or the South. If so which one is most important?
Support with a particular demographic group. Hispanics? Women?
Particular policy chops. Which one? Economic or foreign policy?
Cross-over and independent appeal?
Consistency with his storyline of “change”.
Rewarding a supporter.
I’m torn. He could go for a major battleground state, especially if that person also shores up support among the Clintonistas, or try to win some previous unwinnable Southern states with the Southern White Guy. Or regionally go for the Rocky Mountain strategy.
Hispanics won’t make or break this election.
I think that he could really use a VP with economic gravitas though. He already has his foreign policy storyline down and the comparison is clear. McCain is weakest economically, may choose a VP to offset that (maybe Chris Cox) and he needs to be beat on this point hard. Someone with that cred who also appeals to independents and soft Pubbies will serve him well. Best yet if it also serves a regional or state need. And or a “healing” one
Coming from a true-blue Obama fan as yourself, I’m encouraged by your endorsement. I think the Obama/Sebelius make an unbeatable duo, and if you say it out loud it has a really nice flow and ring to it too.
ETA- and on review, I guess I might be alone on that last point. Heh, funny stuff though Cervaise; well played.
Olympia Snowe would be a good choice for keeping the more liberal or moderate Republicans and independents based on record, the problem is how many voters know who she is across the nation.
Of course, I think I could say the same thing for Governor Sebelius. Seriously, I am not politically ignorant and I only ever see her mentioned here on the dope. She gets little national coverage.
At one point I was sure Americans wouldn’t vote for someone with the middle name of Hussein…
I’d never heard of Sebelius until now, but she sounds like a strong contender. I’d have to go with Richardson, though; he’s not a bad choice, and he openly backed Obama early on. I think they’d work well together. He also brings name recognition and the appearance of an older, more vetted politician to the campaign, which would help sway the “he’s too young and inexperienced” crowd.
[ol][li]Shoring up support among Clinton supporters.[/li]That’s our base – we have to cover that first and foremost. They’re the ones we should be able to count on.
[li]Cross-over and independent appeal?[/li]This is how we’ll broaden our base and bring new people into the fold.
[li]Consistency with his storyline of “change”[/li]I think this is relatively important. He has been utterly consistent with this message throughout his entire campaign, never wavering from it once (as opposed to Hillary, who keeps changing her message). It’s the primary thing that so many are coming out to back him because of. If he goes against this message by bringing in a “status quo” VP, he spoils his message and sets himself up to be raked over the coals by the Republicans over it.
[li]Support in a particular swing state. Which one is most important?[/li]Hard to say, there are many that are in play, as well as many that aren’t generally considered in play that could be equally helpful.
[li]Particular policy chops. Which one? Economic or foreign policy?[/li] I think Obama has the Economic policy down without needing a VP to help him against McCain there. I also think he has the foreign policy issue down, especially with his opposition to the war. But we can’t forget that McCain is a war hero, so we do have to have a strong message to overshadow that.
[li]Support with a particular demographic group. Hispanics? Women? [/li]I think he’s got decent support in those demographics anyway, but will only be improved by addressing point #1 above, so this is kind of moot.
[li]Support in a region like the Plains, or Rocky Mountain states or the South. If so which one is most important?[/li]I’d say the South would be most important, but not critical so long as he’s doing well in all of the above.
[li]Rewarding a supporter.[/li]Under no circumstances, which is one of the reasons I’d be concerned with a Richardson nod for VP. It looks too much like Obama “bought” his endorsement. And I think he’ll bring in the Hispanic and Western states constituency even without the nod. He’ll fight hard for Obama regardless.[/ol]
No worries; I didn’t feel that tone at all. You are correct however, cabinet members do tend to be lower profile selections anyway, I just like playing ‘fill the cabinet’ game, but I got to use people I know. That said, I still think Richardson was made for the role of Sec. State.
Slight hijack but what do you all think of Hagel as Sec Defense? Bring a high profile, former Military, but anti-Iraq war Republican into the fold? Grab some popcorn and turn on Fox news, because that would be sweet. Do Presidential candidates usually announce their cabinets before November? Could very well render McCain speechless.
At the sake of making it a tighter race, but having to consider worst case scenarios, I sort of hope McCain picks her. She is a bit too hawkish for my liking but I could agree with her on pretty much everthing else. On the other hand, I don’t have any problems with her remaining in the Senate, should be a good, across the aisle ally.
I do think that if McCain does pick her, than Obama will pretty much have to also pick a female VP. Ten guesses who I think that should be…
As premature as this speculation is, I can see one candidate for VP who’ll clearly show Obama’s intent to promote bipartisanship. Someone who’ll appeal to Republicans, conservatives, minorities - providing a true balanced ticket.
It’s gotta be Alan Keyes.
Maybe, I hope you are right as I don’t think McCain will win if he does not appeal to the center. Maybe he can’t win as he can’t find someone to appease the center and the religious conservatives.
I’m not so sure. The rapidly increasing Hispanic population in the U.S. breaks down somewhat curiously and unpredictably between the Left and Right (as well as points between, of course). Seems to me this could be a somewhat volatile voting bloc (at least in the center) come the general election.
Americans won’t vote for someone with the middle name of Hussein. At least not in enough numbers to get him elected president.
So far we have only seen an interested subset of Americans (Democrats, as well as some GOPers and independents) vote for “Hussein”. It remains to be seen if enough Americans would vote for “Hussein” in November.
I submit they won’t.
Obama’s race–as well as, to a lesser degree, his name–will freak out enough of the “in-the-privacy-of-the-voting-booth” racists/xenophobes to keep Barrack from the White House.
Sad, but it seems just a little obvious to me how this will all come out. God Bless the USA!!!
You make an awful lot of dire predictions. I wonder how many of them have turned out to be correct. I might go poking in the archives later tonight to see.