All of them. You’re wrong.
Well, when it comes to sage advice on military matters as it impacts geopolitical realities, you really need a hippy. I am here to offer you that option.
I think this could work. I suspect its something of a long shot, but the precise ratio is beyond my feeble. But something a gambler knows: not all bad odds are a bad bet. If the odds are ten to one against, but the payoff is a thousand to one, make the bet.
Points to consider:
I think Obama is deliberately avoiding using words like “victory” which carry the stain of militaristic imperialism, and rings the false note of “glory”. Why is this important? Because I think Obama is aiming to end the war in Afghanistan, but not necessarily to win it. Or at least not in the terms we think of usually as “winning”, i.e., all the other guys are either dead or cringing at our feet. This is not the only way to end a war, it is simply the way that most satisfies our knuckle-walkers.
Notice the emphasis on “awakening” like tactics in Afghanistan, an outreach to Taliban fighters: put down your guns and go home. There is intelligence to suggest that a large, perhaps even a dominant, part of Taliban fighters are guys who are simply mercenary, fighting for a paycheck, fighting to support their families. If we can offer them an alternative prospect at home, they will go for it, they will want to be home with their families. Screw martyrdom, go home, make babies, die old.
This depends a lot on another main factor: connecting with tribal leaders and offering them help on worthy projects. We cannot connect Afghanistan’s diverse pieces into a centralized nation, not without building roads where roads fear to tread. But what we can do is deliberately end the animosity between ourselves and the rural people. Offer them wells. Build some schools (esp. schools! a thumb in the eye of our enemies…) etc. Don’t even try to make them subservient to a government that is only a mirage to them. Deal with them as equals. If they are not our friends, too bad. So long as they are not our enemies.
A weakened Taliban is obviously more easily defeated. And if we make a policy of permitting those who lay down their arms to go home, they are far more likely to surrender. A humane policy towards ones enemies oftimes makes excellent sense in the coldest light of dawn.
If these things are done, then it becomes possible to coordinate with Pakistan on a big push, an offensive. Pakistan pushes the remnants of the Taliban out of Pakistan, and we are waiting for them.
And that point, we will have done all that is reasonable to do, time to leave.
I have never been wholeheartedly in favor of any military action, the closest I ever got was the Kosovo-Balkan thing. So I won’t be now, either. Perhaps I am irretrievably biased against war, if so, so be it.
And finally, if our allies get on board with this, if this can become an international effort rather than an American effort, the odds get that much better. That may be the tipping point for me.
Now, to be clear…this must work perfectly or it wont work at all, everything has to snap into place exactly. And sometimes that happens, but not often enough. So I gotta guess the odds aren’t that great, no kind of slam-dunk here.
But to end this terrible time on an honorable note, preserve Pakistan, defeat an enemy by honorable and admirable means and restore our national standing and respect…I think it could be worth it.
I see no hint in Obama of a man who craves to be a “war president”. This is crucial to me, I am sick to death of the drums, the anthems and the rotten stench of “glory”. Bushs eagerness for war made me want to puke my guts out daily, I see none of that in Obama. So if he tells me he is reluctant to this choice but believes it must be done, I give him that benefit.
Obama is smarter than me. I’ve managed to forgive that, though I am still resentful of the smoking hot wife and adoring children. I voted to trust him, and so I shall.
You can’t kill the Taliban. They are a home-grown organization that will pop out of mountains, rural backwaters, and ungovernable areas of what we might as well call Pashtunistan the minute our military pulls out. If we want to fight and defeat them, we’ll be fighting and defeating them forever.
On the other hand, when it comes to training the locals, how many young Afghans do you think will be lining up to volunteer for the Afghanistan military when the expectation will be that their only protectors will be packing their bags and heading back home in 2011. Not to mention maintaining a capable undercover agent network.
I’d like to think our plan will be just what was needed but fail to see how an additional 30k troops are going to accomplish in one year what we have been unable to do so far in eight.
That was, and has been my opinion.
One advantage of the (from what I hear) 10% literacy rate is that maybe 90% of the populace won’t know about that. Turn your weakness into a strength!
Lots of them. we pour money into those agencies, they better have done something about training Muslim spies.
How many were exposed in the Plame outing?
I have a feeling you can bet the “Tallyban” and AQ will be (or continue to be) spreading the word
Not even close to being a comparable situation.
You are assuming a bunch will be outed in the trial. I will wait to find out. The number may be zero. But Plame was for political revenge. That is as low as you can go. At least this will be an attempt for a legitimate trial.
Conversely, how many people are going to sign up for the Army had Obama announced that we were leaving tomorrow? Or that we weren’t going to leave anytime soon?
So, under which scenario do you believe the most Afghans would volunteer for the army or police, and why?
I think it doesn’t make a substantial difference what Obama announced in terms of a timeline. The issue with the ANA isn’t how many volunteers they have, it is the competency of those who get trained and the will of the officer corps to take up the fight.
We can always hope…My prediction: will be more like a three ring circus
Due to the recent issues we’ve had with “friendly” fire, I have a very low level of trust in recruit dependability
I’m not sure if you’re actually addressing any of the points anyone has made in response to your arguments, but whatever…
I don’t know how big a problem that is but the suicide rate is climbing.
Forget Obama-his speech was just for his party loyalists. I prefer to see what the puppet in Kabul does.
I see a plane ticket (one way to Zurich) in the future for Karzai! 
We out bribed the war lords in Iraq. It took a lot of tax payers money to win that battle. This isn’t a war ,it is a negotiation. We need to crank a pipeline through Afghanistan. They must be taught to submit.
The Taliban does not have plans to attack America. If it is anybody it is Al Quada . They are not in Afghanistan. They have thousands of miles of territory they can melt into . Much of it is mountainous and impossible to root them out. Send the bill for the escalation to Exxon.
Actually, the “friendly fire” incidents I was referring to seem to be cases of rouge members of the Afghan police firing on US soldiers
When I first heard the President’s speech, I thought that maybe he was being reasonable – 30,000 troops and start withdrawing mid-July of 2011. But suddenly it doesn’t sound that way at all and he’s not coming back out to make that clear.
We don’t like their government and can’t trust it. Where is the exit strategy we were promised?
I want to go on record as saying that I have been a strong supporter of Obama in everything up until now. He doesn’t have the support of the people for troop build up. Why is he being so vague?
I am against this. Begin withdrawal now.
Obama’s risk is going against the military. We pretend they are experts while they are wrong over and over. But in America they are our heroes. The Generals are thinking of promotions, retirements, working for military contractors and running for office. They have a terrible track record. It takes a lot of guts to refuse what the generals want. People forget how often they are flat wrong. Tell the generals to close about 800 bases across the world and pack up their toys and come home.