Preliminary October employment data is due out the Friday before the election, which is the 31st. It doesn’t fit the old definition of an October surprise, and since it’s on a schedule you could argue it’s not a surprise at all, but in terms of potentially significant data that’s due right before the election, I thought that deserved to be mentioned.
FWIW, Bin Laden’s October 29, 2004 video has been considered an “October surpise” of sorts. Wiki mentions it, and I recall one columnist (maybe Richard Reeves) saying that Bin Laden had “cast his absentee ballot for Bush” with the video.
Anyway, I vote for a raising of the terror alert or a hot-off-the-presses report from the CIA or other intelligence agency claiming that OBL “remains a threat” or something like that. But, Barack Obama seems to be getting far enough ahead now that it might not be enough to scare the bejeezus out of us again.
On the Red Planet, where shooting ATF agents is the mark of a real folk hero.
ETA: I just noticed the edit hsitory. That’s pretty cool.
My theory for the October surprise is that, with the Taliban distancing themselves from Al Qaeda, they will also hand over Osama Bin Laden, or at least give enough hints that we are able to find him.
The Bush administration (and by association, the Republican Party) will take credit for this by saying that the Taliban only agreed to separate from Al Qaeda because it was beginning to look like the U.S. would never leave otherwise, and this is their way of saying “FINE! We’ll be peaceful. Now LEAVE.” Bush & Co. proceed to begin the process of withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan.
Sadly, before the ink dries on those plans, following a marginal victory by McCain, new information is uncovered which indicates a hotbed of terrorist activity still exists in Pakistan, so our forces will be redirected into a fresh, shiny new war there, which will also leave them strategically placed to strike Iran.
Bush wore out the orange alerts . Maybe McCain can takeone last stab at that. The terrorists are chattering on the internets and will attack if Obama is elected. That would work for a while.
I have all the confidence that the Obama Administration will handle it just fine. 
Looks like Obama is hitting McCain with the Keating 5. With the speed of this response, looks like the campaign was ready for McCain to go negative.
I have to say, Should we have expected anything different from Obama? He has been consistently pre-emptive about his campaign tactics. He obviously is no run of the mill democratic nominee, no, he’s got balls big enough to come in a dump truck. It’s kind of humorous, I have a friend who is voting McCain, and he was flummuxed by Obamas pre-emtive attack…you know what he said this morning? “damn…that’s shrewd, shows good tactics.”
I agree.
How could “going to” orange alert accomplish anything? Haven’t we been on continual orange alert for the past seven years nonstop? At least, that’s what it always says at the airport whenever I fly.
To be fair, when you’ve got an armored division, and the other guys got Nerf bats, its pretty easy to look like a brilliant tactician.
Pssst . . . Hate to be the one to tell you . . . They always bump it up one level when you walk through the door.