Odds on 2016 Presidential Nomination: Karachi Auction

There need to be restrictions on bidding. Otherwise, for example, a desperate player might be able to make successful bids on every candidate, totalling $1000 and end the auction in progress into nothingness. (He’d own the entire $1000 of tickets.) This thread already presents an example (#14) of an out-of-turn bid that needs to be disallowed.

I agree that I’ve done a poor job of posting the Rules. Frankly, I’m composing them on the fly. Here’s one approach, call it Rule 6 Revision B. You’ll note it’s already been violated once this game.

Rule 6 Revision B - Maximum Candidates allowed in a single bid
Note: When a new candidate is named in a bid and there is already a non-zero bid on the corresponding Field element, a Field bet may or must be made. Such a Field bid does not count as a candidate for the restriction on number of candidates.
(a) Up to six candidates may be named in the post where a player joins the thread if it leaves the pool at less than 70% of its target, five if less than 75%, four if less than 80%, or as in (b), if the pool becomes 80% or more.
(b) The player at the top of the list (or first after all passing players) may name up to five candidates in his/her bid if it leaves the pool at less than 50%, four if below 60%, three if below 85%, and otherwise only two candidates in his turn-ending bid.
(c) An out-of-turn bid may be on at most three candidates when the pool becomes less than 70%, two if below 85%. When the pool is or becomes 85% or more of its target, an out-of-turn bid may be on only a single candidate.

A complication is that an out-of-turn bid, if “sufficient,” will drop the player to the bottom for the player list. Simplest may be to exercise common courtesy, giving the in-turn player a chance to bid. It is also courteous to pass explicitly, as Mr. Nemo did, to allow the game to proceed.

It is Octarine’s turn. Little Nemo is also free to take his turn. Out-of-turn bids will be permitted after 24 hours of inactivity.

Soooo . . if Octarine powders and doesn’t turn up by 1:06pm, we can outbid anyone by $5 on ONE candidate, or $5 each on MORE than one candidate?

Short answer to russian heel’s question: Moderator doesn’t know. I’m making up the rules on the fly. :eek:

The pool is at $974; bidding will close after a total raise of $26. I would happily bid with a total raise of $26 on 4 or 5 candidates right now if I could; other players may also be eager to bid. This is the opposite to the problem I originally envisioned – :smack: – that players would be reluctant to bid in the ending. Maybe we would be more reluctant if we were bidding real money! :smiley:

If we were playing “live” in a conference room we could take turns in a round-robin order, passing allowed (unless inactivity forces compulsion), bidding one candidate at a time, and the auction would probably be over in a minute or two. Here we have to be courteous to players in other time zones.

And we need to decide whether the emphasis is on improving the mechanism for getting “true” odds from our market, or fun from the gamesmanship that may arise. There are different ways to proceed (we could try variations with sealed bids) but here’s one way that might work for the last $26 of bids in this game:

**Little Nemo, Octarine, and Russian Heel (who hasn’t had a chance to bid) are free to bid immediately as described below. After one of them bids or after 7 hours from now, whichever comes first, all six players are free to bid. After bidding, a player must wait for two other players to act OR two hours to pass before bidding again.

With the pool at $970-$980, a player may bid up to two candidates at a turn, with a total raise of up to $5.(*)
With the pool at $981-$988, a player may bid up to two candidates at a turn, with a total raise of up to $4.
With the pool at $989-$994, a player may bid up to two candidates at a turn, with a total raise of up to $3.
With the pool at $995-$996, a player may bid only a single candidate at a turn, with a raise of $1 or $2.
With the pool at $997-$999, a player may bid only a single candidate at a turn, with a raise of $1 exactly.**

(* - For example, $5 raise on one candidate; or $2 raise on one candidate and $3 raise on another.)

Does this sound OK?

Playing a real game is the way to “iron out the bugs.” Nevertheless, Moderator is duly embarrassed. :o After this game, with players seeing how it turns out, maybe we’d better go back to the rule discussion thread. :o

Considering the somewhat unclear nature of the rules, and the sort of free-for-all in the first several posts that got us most of the way to $1000, perhaps we should start again in a more orderly fashion, with a specific order-of-play defined and enforced…?

I agree with both the last two posts :).

It’s probably simplest to just discuss rules in this thread, rather than bumping the Game Rame thread.

One point to stress: Nobody’s been damaged by rule changes or procedure flaws – even if we were playing for real money. Players have only made bids that they consider to be good percentage bids, that they’d make with a bookie if they could.

I think the way Round 1 has been played is OK. The early bids were a little hectic, as multiple candidates were bid and prices ran up, but that may be necessary to have a fast-paced fun game. If we played strictly in turn it might become tedious with players in different time zones, etc. I think we should finish this auction and try a Round 2. (With the convention 13 months away, we have time for several rounds; players could acucmulate a portfolio of tickets on various candidates, bought at various prices as the campaigns progress!)

Fine-tuning the rules may be difficult; they may depend on the number of players, and on the number of candidates. Unless we try something very different (sealed bids? a finite number of bidding rights?) the present procedure might be OK, with the rules I’ve proposed in my last two posts. All rules would be up for discussion and vote.

Two or three of us are on-line right now, with Octarine inactive, and Little Nemo passing. Should we just go ahead and allow bids from any of the six players now, in accordance with the limits stated in #23? (Remember: after bidding, a player must wait for two other players to act OR two hours to pass before bidding again. It’s not a clear advantage to go first here, tipping your hand and giving more time for an over-bid.)

I think it’s probably a clear disadvantage to go first at this stage. For example, I’ve got a bit of a steal on Jeb Bush at the moment (if this were for real money I could lay it off on a betting exchange for an instant profit, if I wanted). In addition, due to the rules of the game this is going to be true for whoever ends up with him. So in that respect you probably want to be going last, to increase the bid for JB by $1 in order to finish with him, if no-one else. As such, I suggest the moderator continues to enforce the rules about obligatory bids etc.

Of course, this also depends on:

  1. if the above is right;
  2. if others agree with me;
  3. if others act perfectly rationally.

All of those are far from certain!

I see from the green lights that most of us are on-line. Let’s just start open bidding, subject to the rule in post #23. I’ll go first.

Mitt Romney $21
Field, male $19

Similarly, Mr. Nemo’s $200 bid on Rubio could be laid off for a $20-$35 profit. But I consider Rubio way overpriced. (I think he’s a very likely Vice Presidential nominee.)

Dead Cat’s logic all seems quite valid. I’m hoping my $21 Romney bet is really worth $31. A 48% error which represents $10 profit to me. Meanwhile Mr. Cat has a $260 bet on Bush. If it’s worth $300 (a mere 15% profit), Mr. Cat’s $40 profit is four times as large as mine on the Romney wager.

Certainly, if I’m on bid with a $999 pool and Bush is selling for as little as $260 I’d be very tempted to take him for $261. I wouldn’t pay $270 though. Our paper bets will not settle for 13 months. The price of a Bush ticket will fluctuate. While a Bush ticket may seem to be worth $300 now, I guess and hope it drops some time in coming months. (If instead, we end up with Clinton vs Bush in '16, I’ll “eat my hat”.)

But, as Dead Cat states, at this point we are jockeying for that position of being top-of-queue when it gets to $999. This was unintended when I first proposed Karachi auction, but I’ll call it a feature instead of a bug! (Note that the detailed bid allowances in post #23 imply an ending slightly akin to Nim games, like 7-5-3!).

With most of us on-line, I expected a quick ending, but nobody’s acted. I’m making a change to Rule 6 (changes shown in italics) to attract more bidding.

**… All six players are [now] free to bid. After bidding, except as described in clause (b) below, a player must wait for two other players to act OR two hours to pass before bidding again.

With the pool at $970-$980, a player may bid up to two candidates at a turn, with a total raise of up to $5.(*)
With the pool at $981-$988, a player may bid up to two candidates at a turn, with a total raise of up to $4.
With the pool at $989-$994, a player may bid up to two candidates at a turn, with a total raise of up to $3.
With the pool at $995-$996, a player may bid only a single candidate at a turn, with a raise of $1 or $2.
With the pool at $997-$999, a player may bid only a single candidate at a turn, with a raise of $1 exactly.

(b) If the pool is less than $990, and the bid is for only a $1 raise on a single candidate, bidder need wait for only one other player to act instead of two.**

John Kasich, $4
Ted Cruz, $71

Not sure what the pool is, and I didn’t see Kasich on the list so I’m assuming I can bid for him. If I can’t bid $5, then whatever the highest allowed right now.

I may have missed again with the rules for “field”. If my Kasich bid isn’t allowed, then I’ll put the Kasich money to raising the “field, male” bid.

iiandyii, by splitting the Field you are required to enter also a bid of at least $16 for Field, Male. (16+4 = 20, one more than the current $19 bid on Field).
However, I’m allowed to retain my $19 bid on the reduced Field, and I do choose to exercise that right.

**Game State

Current High Bids
Jeb Bush $260 (Dead Cat)
Ben Carson $10 (Dead Cat)
Chris Christie $50 (Little Nemo)
Ted Cruz $71 (iiandyii)
Jon Huntsman $10 (septimus)
Mike Huckabee $20 (Dead Cat)
Bobby Jindal $4 (Russian Heel)
John Kasich $4 (iiandyii)
Rand Paul $60 (Dead Cat)
Rick Perry $10 (Dead Cat)
Mitt Romney $21 (septimus)
Marco Rubio $200 (Little Nemo)
Paul Ryan $30 (Septimus)
Rick Santorum $100 (Little Nemo)
Donald Trump $10 (Dead Cat)
Scott Walker $100 (iiandyiiii)
Field, male $19 (septimus)
Field, female $5 (Dead Cat)
Total pool $984
(Please report any errors in the Bid list)

With total pool of $984, the next two bidders may make two-candidate $4 raises (see Rule 6).

When subtracting a player from the field, announce a bid on Field. In the present example, iiandyii’s minimum bid on Field was $14; he couldn’t bid more than $19 (the existing bid) without using up one of the two allowed candidate slots for his bid. If he had bid, say $17, I’d be allowed (but not required) to keep my Field ticket by matching the $17 offer. In this case I’ll exercise the option to keep my full $19 bid intact.**

With the pool at 98.4% of its target, there may be few bargains available, but I see 2 or 3 I’d be happy to bid on. I think voluntary bids should have precedence; compulsory bids should be forced only when no voluntary bids are available.

At present, all players except iiandyii and myself are entitled to make a $4 two-candidate bid, but no one has done so. I’m entitled to a $1 one-candidate bid (and iiandyii is entitled to such a bid after I or another player act).

I’d be happy to make a $1 bid on one of my perceived bargains, but will wait a few hours to give other players a chance. Dead Cat? Little Nemo? Russian Heel? Octarine?

Are players just waiting to jockey themselves into the hot seat – bidding when the pool becomes $998 or $999? If so, the remedy may be to award last bid by random.org, weighted somewhat against the last few bidders.

Im going to hedge my Bobby Jindal long shot bid with a $4 raise on Jeb Bush and Mike Huckabee.

$4 is the maximum total raise. I assume russian heel wants a $2 raise on each of Bush and Huckabee.

And I’ll bid:

Field, female $6
Scott Walker $103

**Game State

Current High Bids
Jeb Bush $262 (russian heel)
Ben Carson $10 (Dead Cat)
Chris Christie $50 (Little Nemo)
Ted Cruz $71 (iiandyii)
Jon Huntsman $10 (septimus)
Mike Huckabee $22 (russian heel)
Bobby Jindal $4 (russian heel)
John Kasich $4 (iiandyii)
Rand Paul $60 (Dead Cat)
Rick Perry $10 (Dead Cat)
Mitt Romney $21 (septimus)
Marco Rubio $200 (Little Nemo)
Paul Ryan $30 (septimus)
Rick Santorum $100 (Little Nemo)
Donald Trump $10 (Dead Cat)
Scott Walker $103 (septimus)
Field, male $19 (septimus)
Field, female $6 (septimus)
Total pool $992
(Please report any errors in the Bid list)

The pool is now 99.2% complete. According to Rule 6, as amended, any player except russian heel or septimus may now make a $3 two-candidate bid, but it would the last such bid allowed in this auction.**

Field, Male $20
Mike Huckabee $24

**Game State

Current High Bids
Jeb Bush $262 (russian heel)
Ben Carson $10 (Dead Cat)
Chris Christie $50 (Little Nemo)
Ted Cruz $71 (iiandyii)
Jon Huntsman $10 (septimus)
Mike Huckabee $24 (Dead Cat)
Bobby Jindal $4 (russian heel)
John Kasich $4 (iiandyii)
Rand Paul $60 (Dead Cat)
Rick Perry $10 (Dead Cat)
Mitt Romney $21 (septimus)
Marco Rubio $200 (Little Nemo)
Paul Ryan $30 (septimus)
Rick Santorum $100 (Little Nemo)
Donald Trump $10 (Dead Cat)
Scott Walker $103 (septimus)
Field, male $20 (Dead Cat)
Field, female $6 (septimus)
Total pool $995
(Please report any errors in the Bid list)

Any player may bid now except Dead Cat or septimus.

The pool is now 99.5% complete. Only single candidate bids are allowed, raising $1 or $2.**

Can I bid “field, male” at $22? If that is not allowed, then I’ll bid to raise Rick Perry by $2.

Yes, bids on Field are still allowed. (Perhaps outlawing Field bets in the end-game would be a good Rule change for the next auction?)

**Game State

Current High Bids
Jeb Bush $262 (russian heel)
Ben Carson $10 (Dead Cat)
Chris Christie $50 (Little Nemo)
Ted Cruz $71 (iiandyii)
Jon Huntsman $10 (septimus)
Mike Huckabee $24 (Dead Cat)
Bobby Jindal $4 (russian heel)
John Kasich $4 (iiandyii)
Rand Paul $60 (Dead Cat)
Rick Perry $10 (Dead Cat)
Mitt Romney $21 (septimus)
Marco Rubio $200 (Little Nemo)
Paul Ryan $30 (septimus)
Rick Santorum $100 (Little Nemo)
Donald Trump $10 (Dead Cat)
Scott Walker $103 (septimus)
Field, male $22 (iiandyii)
Field, female $6 (septimus)
Total pool $997
(Please report any errors in the Bid list)

Any player may bid now except iiandyii or Dead Cat. In order to avoid charges of preferential treatment by Moderator, septimus will make no further bids in this auction.

Only $1 raises are permitted now. Three such bids are required. If voluntary bidders do not come forth for 60 hours, Little Nemo will be required to make a $1 raise in accordance with Rule 4(b).**