Odds on 2016 Presidential Nomination: Karachi Auction

Thread Games
1

The much awaited Karachi Auction game thread has begun! :cool: Imagine ourselves to be odds-makers trying to judge the true odds on the various candidates by making real bets. Whoever makes the high bid on the actual Presidential Nominee of the 2016 GOP convention will win the (pretend money) pot.

We’ll start with three players, but new players are welcome to join the game in progress.

A key way Karachi is distinguished from a Calcutta Auction is that the total pool size, $1000 (1000 pretend dollars), is rigidly fixed. If the pool totals $999, and you are obliged to bid, then you must increase by exactly $1 the bid on some candidate. (For example, by increasing Jeb Bush from $250 to $251 you’re implying that the true odds on Bush aren’t 3-to-1 but 749-to-251.) If confused please ask me via PM or in-thread.

I’ll start. Septimus bids:

$200 Jeb Bush
$30 Chris Christie
$30 Paul Ryan
$80 Marco Rubio
$50 Scott Walker

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
And I’ll serve as Moderator; I’ll explain the detailed rules in the (unlikely?) event they become necessary; I’ll update game state information:

**Current High Bids
Jeb Bush $200 (Septimus)
Chris Christie $30 (Septimus)
Paul Ryan $30 (Septimus)
Marco Rubio $80 (Septimus)
Scott Walker $50 (Septimus)
Total pool $390

Player list: Little Nemo, Dead Cat, Septimus**
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

A legal bid can be as simple as
Jeb Bush $210
or
Carly Fiorina $1

… Or feel free to bid several candidates in one post, as I have done.

2

Trying to keep the game simple (by not posting any tedious relatively unimportant rules) I may have erred in the other direction. :smack: Perhaps I’ve never even explained how the Auction works.

At heart, it’s just an ordinary auction. One of the items up for sale is a ticket on Jeb Bush – call it a lottery ticket if you will. On or about 19 July, 2016 the lottery results will be announced. Whoever holds high bid on the winning ticket gets paid off! So far I’m high bidder on the Jeb Bush ticket.

If Jeb is the announcee on 19 July(*), and no one outbids me for Jeb, I’ll win $1000 minus the $200 investment. I’m risking $200 for a possible $800 profit. Exactly as though I was getting 4-to-1 net odds from a bookie.

(* - A VP nominee will be announced on or about 20 July. Originally I thought we’d want to Karachi another $1000 payoff for the VP selection, but enthusiasm for the game has yet to gather force. :rolleyes: )

Now is my $200 bid for Jeb a good percentage move? Is his chance of winning the nomination at least 20%? I’m certainly not certain. Frankly I’m hoping someone will outbid me for Jeb … as I’m also hoping Jeb flames out spectacularly. :stuck_out_tongue:

That’s all. We’re just auctioning lottery tickets, more-or-less the same way Sotheby’s auctions paintings. The two differences between Karachi and Sotheby are

(1) All items are up for bid concurrently (simultaneously).

Any winning ticket is worth $1000. Here, I’m risking $50 to get $950. If no one outbids me, I’ll get 19-1 odds. I think that’s a very good bet for me.

(2) By contract (courtesies and obligations) bidding is expected to continue until $1000 of high bids have been placed, in a reasonable and timely fashion.

August 31, 2015 isn’t unreasonable as drop-dead-by date for this Karachi auction to end, no? I don’t want any players to feel rushed by the pace of the game. (Though fortunately that hasn’t yet proved a problem.)

Etiquette:

The rules of etiquette (which become formal regulations in pedantic constructions) need only be very simple, and almost common-sense.

For example, having made a multiple bid it seemed fair for me to wait and give other players a chance to bid. After less than 24 hours of delay would it be rude for me to bid up my own underbid on Walker? I think not, since it also has purpose of demonstration.

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

$60 Scott Walker

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

I expect Walker to sell for much more than $60; only as pool approaches the $1000 total will we expect to see candidates sell for their true value. I’ll try to keep the thread up to date with Game state summaries, but may delay them, as here, to avoid cluttering up the thread.

3

Ok, here goes:

Jeb Bush $250
Donald Trump $80
Ted Cruz $50
Ben Carson $10

Assuming it’s allowed, I would welcome any commentary on my choices, given I know very little about US politics!

4

Rubio $200
Santorum $100
Christie $50

5

Current High Bids
Jeb Bush $250 (Dead Cat)
Ben Carson $10 (Dead Cat)
Chris Christie $50 (Little Nemo)
Ted Cruz $50 (Dead Cat)
Paul Ryan $30 (Septimus)
Marco Rubio $200 (Little Nemo)
Rick Santorum $100 (Little Nemo)
Donald Trump $80 (Dead Cat)
Scott Walker $60 (Septimus)
Total pool $830

6

Thanks for posting the bid list, Little Nemo. I’d already composed a post so will post the ninjaee.

**Current High Bids
Jeb Bush $250 (Dead Cat)
Ben Carson $10 (Dead Cat)
Chris Christie $50 (Little Nemo)
Ted Cruz $50 (Dead Cat)
Paul Ryan $30 (Septimus)
Marco Rubio $200 (Little Nemo)
Rick Santorum $100 (Little Nemo)
Donald Trump $80 (Dead Cat)
Scott Walker $60 (Septimus)
Total pool $830
(Please report any errors in the Bid list)

Player list: Septimus, (Russian Heel?), (Elendil’s Heir?), Dead Cat, Little Nemo**

Up to 83% of the pool is allotted; we’re progressing nicely. Since neither Messrs Heel nor Heir have committed to playing, I will be obligated, within 60 hours from now, to make a sufficient bid under Rule 4(d). Any player or prospective player is free to bid in the mean time.

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

No problem. I think your bid on Donald Trump is high; I’m not sure I’d go $1. :eek: In fact, I’m so embarassed that American politics is in a state where such a buffoon is taken seriously, I offer – other players willing – to let you retract your Trump bid.

7

Jeb Bush: $258

(Because random numbers sound more thought-out).

8

Thanks for joining us, Octarine. I hope you realize that eventually you may be required to make another bid under Rule 4(d). (The financial pain is minimized in that we’re playing for Cecil Adams play money :slight_smile: , but had this been a real money auction … :eek: )

Sooner or later, we’ll want a bid on FIELD – any nominee not otherwise named. I propose that two Fields be played: Field, Female and Field, Male. Is that all right with everyone?

I think it’s time to bid for the Fields now, but will give the other players first chance to bid. After Fields are taken, a slight variation is needed to bid on a new named candidate, subtracting him/her from the field, but we can dither that detail when it arises. I’ll bid four of the “frontrunners” not yet mentioned:

Mike Huckabee $17
Mitt Romney $17
Jon Huntsman $10
Rand Paul $8

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

Pursuant to Rule 7(b), I have arbitrarily reduced Dead Cat’s bid on Trump to $10. He(*) is free to restore his bid to any level. No bids by other players on Trump (less than $81) will be permitted until after Dead Cat takes his turn.

(* - sorry if I get anyone’s gender wrong.)

**Game State

Current High Bids
Jeb Bush $258 (Octarine)
Ben Carson $10 (Dead Cat)
Chris Christie $50 (Little Nemo)
Ted Cruz $50 (Dead Cat)
Jon Huntsman $10 (septimus)
Mike Huckabee $17 (septimus)
Rand Paul $8 (septimus)
Mitt Romney $17 (septimus)
Marco Rubio $200 (Little Nemo)
Paul Ryan $30 (Septimus)
Rick Santorum $100 (Little Nemo)
Donald Trump $10 (Dead Cat)
Scott Walker $60 (Septimus)
Field, female $0 (unbid)
Field, male $0 (unbid)
Total pool $820
(Please report any errors in the Bid list)

Player list: Dead Cat, Little Nemo, Octarine, Septimus

Dead Cat has 60 hours to leave instructions. If the thread remains silent for 60 hours, the Moderator will enter a bid of Jeb Bush {$263, Donald Trump $10} on Dead Cat’s behalf.**

Remember: Players who’ve already committed are permitted to make $1 incremental bids at any time, but new players’ first bid must be sufficient. Octarine’s $8 raise was sufficient so she(*) goes to the bottom of the bid obligation queue. From here until end-of-game, any newcomer must make an initial bid with total raise (accumulated across a multi-bid) of at least $7.

9

No, I’m going to reverse myself. (Sorry, I’ve never moderated a game before.) More appropriate is

Dead Cat has 72 hours to leave instructions. If the thread remains silent for 72 hours, the Moderator will enter a bid of {Donald Trump $80} on Dead Cat’s behalf.

10

septiumus please check PMS

11

As long as Field remains unbid, new candidates can be named without any special obligation, except that to qualify as an initial or obligatory bid, there will be a minimum raising total. For example, the present initial bidding minimum is $7; thus while the four committed players are allowed to bid as little as, say
Lindsay Graham $1
a new player making his initial join-up bid would have to provide bids totalling $7 or more, e.g.
Lindsay Graham $1
Field, male $1
Field, female $1
Jeb Bush $262 ($4 raise)

At some point a bid will appear on Field, e.g.
Field, male $20
After that point, to introduce Lindsay Graham, a total of $21 must be bid on male fielders, e.g.
Lindsay Graham $5
[del]Barbara Bush $1
Field, female $5[/del]
Newt Gingrich $1
John Boehner $1
Field, male $14

(Note that the bids on Barbara and Field Female, while legal, do not count toward the $21 male field obligation.)

In the example case, where players are subtracted out of Field-Male, the original $20 Field bidder would be allowed (but under no obligation) to match any bid on Field-Male of $20 or less at his turn.

12

$60 Ted Cruz
$50 Rand Paul
$100 Scott Walker

13

“He” it is, and thanks for your consideration. I overvalued Trump because he got some not unfavourable media coverage here in the UK. I didn’t realise he was considered a complete buffoon in his home country, though I was aware he is unlikely to be a front-runner. I am more than happy with the $10 bid on him at this stage. Buffoons have been nominated (and even elected) before…

Anyway, here’s my next bid:

$260 Jeb Bush
$70 Ted Cruz
$60 Rand Paul
$20 Mike Huckabee
$20 Mitt Romney
$15 Field, Male
$10 Rick Perry
$5 Field, Female

I realise that in the unlikely event things remain unchanged this would leave me bidding nearly half the pool, but I’m good with that - it’s easy to be a big spender with pretend money (not that I’m trying to mess up the game - I genuinely think each of my bids is at least within the correct order of magnitude, though I haven’t checked any betting exchanges to back that up).

14

$80 Ted Cruz
$70 Rand Paul
$30 Mike Huckabee

15

The game is in its final phase. No new players will be allowed.

After this auction finishes, would players like to try another? Democratic nominee, or GOP Vice-Presidential nominee?

**Game State, after Dead Cat’s bid #13

Current High Bids
Jeb Bush $260 (Dead Cat)
Ben Carson $10 (Dead Cat)
Chris Christie $50 (Little Nemo)
Ted Cruz $70 (Dead Cat)
Jon Huntsman $10 (septimus)
Mike Huckabee $20 (Dead Cat)
Rand Paul $60 (Dead Cat)
Rick Perry $10 (Dead Cat)
Mitt Romney $20 (Dead Cat)
Marco Rubio $200 (Little Nemo)
Paul Ryan $30 (Septimus)
Rick Santorum $100 (Little Nemo)
Donald Trump $10 (Dead Cat)
Scott Walker $100 (iiandyiiii)
Field, female $15 (Dead Cat)
Field, male $5 (Dead Cat)
Total pool $970
(Please report any errors in the Bid list)

Player list: Little Nemo, Octarine, Septimus, iiandyiii, Dead Cat

It is now Little Nemo’s turn. He may bid on no more than two candidates with a total raise of any amount from $1 to $30. A raise of $30 will end the auction.

If Little Nemo does not act within 24 hours any player may bid on a single candidate, but with maximum raise of $5.
**

iiandyiii’s bid #14, which would have taken the pool to $1000 and thereby ended the auction, is illegal on two grounds: (1) It Is Little Nemo’s turn; he must be given a reasonable amount of time to act. (2) With the pool approaching its target, only single candidates can be bid on an out-of-turn bid. (Dead Cat’s in-turn 8-way bid #13 may have also been in violation, but I’ll accept it – we’re still “ironing the bugs out” of the Karachi auction and, anyway, I never posted detailed rules.)

16

You have my Fields awry :).

I’d certainly be interested in another round, in fact it may be interesting to play a second round of the same game but with stricter rules on bidding in turn. I for one would be interested in your full set of rules, feel free to PM them to me if you’d rather do that than post them in a thread.

At some point I may try to look up the bookmakers’ odds to see how close we got to the wider market.

17

Yes, by repeating the same auction (GOP nominee 2016) we could have lots of pretend money invested in various pretend tickets at different prices. Tickets could be bought and sold among the players in an “after market.” When the nomination is finally settled 13 months from now, players could be rewarded (though only with pretend money :o ) for good odds-making and strategy.

The detailed rules are only a work in progress. And those rules focused on bid obligations to avoid a situation where the pool remained below its target with players refusing to bid. Instead we had the opposite problem, and need to combat bidding over-eagerness!

I think in future a total of only three candidates may be bid at one turn when the pool becomes 60% or more of its target; and only two candidates may be bid at one turn when the pool becomes 85% of target. Out-of-turn bids would be restricted to single candidates; a player would be allowed only two out-of-turn bids in any 24-hour period. Sound reasonable?

Here’s one (of several?) web pages giving inferred odds.

18

I have to admit I still don’t fully understand the rules. I have no idea, for example, why it’s my turn to bid or why we even have turns. But looking the current bids over, I’m not inclined to change my bids so I’m passing if that’s allowed.

19

I received a bid via e-mail and forgot to show it in the updates. (Mr. Heel, is $4 the correct amount? Mr. Cat, if you no longer like your Field-M bid, I’ll take it off your hands. :smiley: )

**Game State, after Dead Cat’s bid #13 (corrected)

Current High Bids
Jeb Bush $260 (Dead Cat)
Ben Carson $10 (Dead Cat)
Chris Christie $50 (Little Nemo)
Ted Cruz $70 (Dead Cat)
Jon Huntsman $10 (septimus)
Mike Huckabee $20 (Dead Cat)
Bobby Jindal $4 (Russian Heel)
Rand Paul $60 (Dead Cat)
Rick Perry $10 (Dead Cat)
Mitt Romney $20 (Dead Cat)
Marco Rubio $200 (Little Nemo)
Paul Ryan $30 (Septimus)
Rick Santorum $100 (Little Nemo)
Donald Trump $10 (Dead Cat)
Scott Walker $100 (iiandyiiii)
Field, male $15 (Dead Cat)
Field, female $5 (Dead Cat)
Total pool $974
(Please report any errors in the Bid list)

Player list: Little Nemo, Octarine, Septimus, Russian Heel, iiandyiii, Dead Cat

It is now Little Nemo’s turn. He may bid on no more than two candidates with a total raise of any amount from $1 to $26. A raise of $26 will end the auction.

If Little Nemo does not act within 22 hours any player may bid on a single candidate, but with maximum raise of $5.
**

20

The reason it is your turn to bid, is that every other player has bid (suifficiently) since your last bid.

You are certainly allowed to pass. It’s only a temporary pass in the sense that if no other player bids for the next 60 (minus 2) hours, you will be required by Rule 5(d) to place a bid, with an increment of at least $1.

However, I strongly doubt that the 60-hour silence (that would force a bid from you) will occur at all. To the contrary, I think several of us are eager to bid.

**Moderator ruling:

Mr. Nemo’s pass is acknowledged (excepting as Rule 5(d) would apply after 58 hours of silence).

It is Octarine’s turn. Mr. Nemo remains at the top of the Player list and may still exercise his in-turn bid at any time.**