Interesting stat. The top 5 consecutive starting streaks for QBs (regular season, I think):
- Peyton Manning 208
- Eli Manning 103
- Philip Rivers 80
- Joe Flacco 48
- Matt Schaub 36
Really shows what a bad ass Favre is, when he’s not being a drama queen.
Nobody is saying he sucks.
Was. No love for Ron Jaworkski?
You think he’s not even a top 10 wideout. NFL players disagree.
Meh. It more shows what a meaningless stat it is. Few players prioritize something so individual and ultimately selfish and therefore no one even tries to get on the board. Maybe a Favre who missed a game or two to heal up would have tossed fewer game losing picks and leaned on a running game on occasion.
Gonna have to jump around to respond to an awful lot of knee jerk nonsense being thrown about. Pardon.
I really, really don’t want to be rude here, but you’re being obtuse. Firstly, there’s a big difference between why it’s important to consider Steve Smith’s last year more highly than his entire career as a whole: he’s 32. Smith is more likely to be continuing his trend of regression whereas DRC (25) is not. This is not bias, and frankly, it’s not even complicated. (I didn’t bring up Babin’s past, who did you actually mean to mention here?)
By the way folks, has everyone failed to realize that Steve Smith hasn’t been really good for two years? And “hasn’t been good” is sugar coating the shit pile he put up last year. He was completely fucking awful last year. Avant put up comparable totals as a third receiver (and fourth or fifth option) and trashed Smith in adjusted FO percentages (better catch rate, better DVOA, DYAR, everything).
<In regards to DeAngelo Williams vs. Ronnie Brown>
I definitely overvalued Williams’ poor 2010 here. I thought he was farther removed from being good (a la Steve Smith). I’m fine retracting on this point. But! That does not rule out that in 2010, Brown was better than Williams in every metric. Obviously totals, since Williams missed time, but in the adjusted FO stats too. Big picture, I was wrong.
Over Matt Moore and Chris fucking Gamble? You’re damn right. If they’re better, they’re better. No reason to fight against it just for the sake of it
This is a nonsense argument, much like that atrocity of poor reason you dumped on the thread earlier (“there’s a reason they’re second string” - gee, because the guys ahead of them are better? Second string isn’t leprosy, dude) But I’ll bite, it’s for fun anyway (right?). What is Steve Smith? What makes him so valuable? Are we going to ignore that he’s 32, hasn’t played a full season in forever (hurt again already! shocker!), and has regressed massively over the last two years? Is it because he punches his teammates that he’s so valuable? I admit it’s a stretch to say Avant is better (except in 2010, when he was), but what am I missing? I know some of you had to at least own him in fantasy at some point in the last two years, right?
You would know, I guess, so I’ll concede that point, You can have Rosario. I think they’re a wash, but Lee is beyond his useful receiving years.
Who else? Who else is joining in on the pile on without providing any statistical backup?
There we go! That’s what I’m talking about… Hey, you take that back. That was uncalled for.
<In regards to Avant vs. Smith last year>
At least I did research. Research that defends my point, I might add. I’ve noticed that only one of the counter points offered a single statistic, though. Good on Hamlet for really driving home that Dante Rosario > Donald Lee mismatch. So lopsided!
And as a final note, calm the fuck down people. Have some fun in recognizing the solid, outright, lead-pipe-lock fact that the Eagles second team on their current depth chart would win 3 games, minimum. Probably more like 9, though, because I hear Riley Cooper is really coming on! It doesn’t make you any less a fan of your own sorry teams to bask in the glow of the 2011 Paper Champions.
With regards to Desean Jackson, it’s not fair to rate him without defining the terms. He’s a poor receiver, technically. He’s incredibly athletic though, almost shockingly so (hence why NFL players, who value that so highly, rate him so highly) and so he jumps into the top receivers based on talent alone. The problem is, too many people overvalue his special teams skill, which is not something he’s going to be doing much of anymore. If the Eagles pay him because he’s a stud on special teams, then don’t play him there, that’s a big mistake.
But if you’re going scout WRs and rate based on technique and learned skill, he’s probably not in the top 25.
So you think saying someone is not Top 10 is the equivalent of saying that person sucks? Really?
This is far too similar to the tried and true argument that any given years NCAA champ would defeat that years version of the Carolina Panthers.
Too late to edit:
Want to know something interesting about Desean Jackson? He’s never had a 10 catch game. He’s never had a NINE catch game. And out of his 45 games, he’s had eight catches twice, and seven catches once.
Perhaps that’s a product of the offensive system. But Jackson is undoubtedly a poor technical receiver. And while he runs as fast as anyone, he lacks the athleticism to go up to get a ball in traffic, and that includes that he’s too small to go over the middle with any level of trust anyway. He’s an ideal #1 for Philly, but I think he would be a huge disappointment on virtually any other team.
Except of course, this is a team populated by actual NFL players with (mostly) NFL pedigree. There are Pro Bowlers on that second team, and not “Player X made the Pro Bowl four years ago,” recent ones. There are… three rookies on the second team? Two of which will be starters by the end of the year regardless of injury. It’s not a typical second team.
It’s relatively simple to understand. Real NFL GM’s and coaches tend to know a lot more about NFL players than a couple of fans on an internet message board. So, when I say that I think GM’s would rather have Smith than Avant, or when I point out backups are backups and not starters, it is an assertion that the guys who make millions of dollars to find, measure, and develop talent know more than you or I. Now, while you may assert that you know more than every GM or coach out there, I think that kind of assertion bears a heavy burden to show. Do you think any NFL GM would take Avant over Smith? They had comparable numbers last year (Avant 51, 573, 1 td in 16 games; Smith 46, 554, 2 tds in 2 less games which makes me skeptical of your assertion that Avant was any better than Smith last year), and Avant had Vick, while Smith had absolute dogshit throwing him the ball. Yes, Smith has regressed. But he’s still better than Avant could ever even hope to be.
And you’re right, we should calm down. It’s actually an interesting point to discuss, whether one teams’ backups could be another teams’ starters, and there is no reason to get so bullheaded about it. I think you’re horribly wrong and seeing the issue through green tinted glasses, but there’s no reason to get upset about it.
When you average 22 yards per catch, who gives a shit if you don’t catch 10 passes a game? Randy Moss had one 10 catch game in his final nine seasons - including the ones with the Pats.
I absolutely agree that Jackson has weak hands and can’t go up to get the ball, but the former is something he can learn and the latter is something he can do without (cf. Steve Smith The First).
[QUOTE=Gangster Octopus]
So you think saying someone is not Top 10 is the equivalent of saying that person sucks? Really?
[/QUOTE]
No, and I’m sorry if it came off that way. I’m saying “okay, you don’t think he sucks, but you don’t think he’s a top 10 receiver”. He is. I pointed out early that he doesn’t deserve Fitzgerald money, but the only guys I’d take over him right now* are Johnson, Fitz, Megatron and Roddy White.
Wayne is too old, Jennings is too inconsistent, Austin/Rice/Bowe/Jackson have only had one big year, Nicks, Wallace and Maclin aren’t far enough in and Marshall is a headcase.
*and we’re talking about right now, since the topic that spawned this argument is a discussion over how much money the Eagles should give him.
ETA: Jules, Jason Avant better than Steve Smith? Come on, man.
I think most GMs make lame brained decisions based on securing their job for another year and trying not to rock the boat too much. To just assume they know stuff and any decision they make is instantly a good one, on the basis of them having made it, is giving these guys too much credit I won’t accept that argument. Not with years of evidence to the contrary regarding the quality of an average GM’s decisions.
Avant: Catch Rate: 68%
Smith: Catch Rate: 46%
But! But! Smith is a #1 who runs downfield! Avant is a slot guy who gets the short routes! rabblerabblerabble!
Avant: 11.3 Yards/Catch
Smith: 12.0 Yards/Catch
So, not really that much.. Avant also wins in the advanced Football Outsiders metrics (DYAR: 113 to -153; DVOA 6.6% to -32.7% - these aren’t even close, they’re miles apart). And this has gone on for the last two seasons.
So, yes Steve Smith is a fantastic talent whose ceiling is miles and miles above Avant’s wildest dreams. But that ceiling may be a long gone memory. And yes, QB play factored in, as it always does in these situations. I mean, look at these numbers. How come so much derision and reactionary dismissal? This is at least an argument. It seems like the goalposts are moving here. I was given the Panthers as an example of how a team performed to compare against, last season. Last season, Avant was better.
If I had to, I’d say Smith’s potential season in 2011 is better than Avant’s… but I’m not betting on it. By the time the Panthers have a QB who can get him the ball (mid 2011, 2012?) Smith might be too old to play his style effectively. Hell, he might be too old right now. Would you bet one him having another 1000 yard season in his career?
When I first posted on this, I was immediately willing to chalk WR up as a win for the Panthers. I was more interested comparing the other parts of the teams. Then I remembered something. Steve Smith fucking sucked last season. Rephrase it however you want, the original topic was 2010, Avant was better in 2010.
And now in actual news, the Eagles signed Steve Smith! The Giants version, but still. Now I have to pretend he isn’t overrated too. Ah, how interesting this season will be. I once compared Avant to this other Steve Smith, too. I guess I’ll have to find a way not to consider this one overrated too.
(What’s with the Eagles scooping up the Giants castoffs? Sinorice Moss and Steve Smith?)
You don’t think it’s interesting? Tell the truth, were you surprised? I was reading these threads and thinking about how the Eagles seem to win only when Desean plays well, and how he never has any “good” games. Either he goes off or gets completely shut down. And then I thought about how I couldn’t remember a single ten catch game in his career. I was shocked to find out he hadn’t had even one. Not even a nine catch game! Surprised me.
It’s not a requisite to being a good WR, of course, but it goes to illustrate that Desean can’t be compared to other prototype #1 guys. He’s never going to be that type of player who can consistently get open and catch ten a game. But the Eagles don’t need that from Desean, so I think he’s in the perfect spot for him. Very few teams have a downfield passing attack that the Eagles have and that Desean needs.
“DYAR and DVOA include all passes intended for the receiver, both complete and incomplete. Catch Rate represents the percentage of passes to this receiver completed. This is a reference to incomplete passes, not dropped passes: dropped passes are not specified in publicly available play-by-play, and unfortunately we cannot yet correct for this.”
“We cannot yet fully separate the performance of a receiver from the performance of his quarterback. Be aware that one will affect the other.”
It’s probably just a coincidence, sheer random happenstance I say!, that Avant had one of the top rated QB’s throwing him the ball, and had two other talented WR’s to draw coverage, while Smith had a pile of crap throwing to him, two rookies with negative dvoa’s, and faced constant double teams as the only weapon in the passing game. Believe it or not, I think the majority of people in this thread, and those in the NFL are, and would be, much more likely to take Steve Smith than Jason Avant if given the choice between the two. And I think that’s very telling.
I’m shocked that they need to pick up any more WR’s, what with them having the astounding Jason Avant.
I didn’t say anything about him sucking or even Austin being better. But just because Austin didn’t have a catch his rookie season doesn’t somehow affect his performance now. If some rookie receiver had racked up 2500 yards last year would he still not be in Jackson’s league because he hasn’t reached some arbitrary stat?
Well, he did have Jake Delhomme in 2009! How do you explain what ha… never mind.
I’m pretty sure Smith never faced a double team as you can’t possibly double team a WR when you have 10 in the box.
Meaningless. Appealing to the wisdom of the masses isn’t convincing.
Yeah, strange, right? At least you’re finally seeing getting it. Astounding! Couldn’t have said it better myself.
Of course not. But Austin didn’t just not do anything his rookie year; he didn’t do anything in his second or third years, either.
Ouch, that one hurts.
If he ever gets healthy, he will quickly climb over Avant and Maclin to take a starting spot opposite Jackson. I would not want to face that combination.