Official 2011 NFL Football Thread - Preseason Edition

All the media discussion I’ve seen so far seems to characterize this as effectively a 4 year, $75M deal averaging $17M/year. That math doesn’t work out but that’s been reported somewhat consistently, so take it as you will.

Of course that means that the last 4 years are effectively 4 years for $45M. Since the implication has been that the club would be looking to opt out that’s a bit backwards, unless you assume that Fitzy will be badly overpaid 4 years from now at $11M per year.

You proved my point, thanks. Carr is much, much better than D.Anderson, Skelton, and Hall that it goes a long way to show just how bad Fitz’s QBs were. And he still had the stats I mentioned last season.

Did you notice AJ is 3 years older than Fitz and has missed 10 games over the last 4 seasons compared to Fitz’s 1? I’ll take Fitz with pleasure, and it’s the right choice.

David Carr is better than Derek Anderson? Carr has passed for more than 3,000 yards exactly once. His career TD/INT ratio is 65/71.

I may have misspoken when I said “much, much better” but yeah, Carr is better than Anderson. Anderson has also passed for 3000 yards exactly once. Anderson’s career TD/INT ratio is 53/55, which isn’t much better than Carr’s. At least Carr has topped 60% completions over a season (three times). Anderson never even came close.

I think the Bengals will look much better this week. (sigh.)

Kurt Warner didn’t stink did he?

I don’t. He looks very poised for a rookie coming off no training camp with a bunch of other young players in a new offense.

I think so too. He is progressing with every snap.

I get the intent behind it, but I really dislike it. It essentially takes the kickoff return out of the game altogether. I do appreciate that they want to try to make it safer, and the return is a high-risk play.

What I’d rather see them do is move the kickoff further up to the 40, but 1) require that all kick coverage players line up on the 40 and 2) make the rule that if the kickoff goes out the back of the end zone, the receiving team gets the ball on their own 35 (on the 20 if fielded and not returned out of the end zone). That would slow down the coverage team a bit, and encourage the kicker to hang one high in the air. The receiving team would have to decide whether or not to try to field it in the end zone or hope that it bounces out the back. It takes a lot of the top-speed collision out of the game, but keeps the return as a big part of the field position game.

You can have your “poised”. I’d much rather have “ready to play in the NFL”. The Bengals are making a mistake throwing him out there as a starter.

In more “who cares” news, today is the supplemental NFL draft. Terrelle Pryor is the big name, but Caleb King (RB Georgia) and Michael McAdoo (DE, North Carolina) might get drafted also. I kinda like Tracy Wilson as a run stopping safety project, but I doubt he’ll get drafted.

None of these guys really interest me (what is it with the over-hyping of D linemen from North Carolina?). With roster space being such a premium, I wouldn’t take the time to develop Pryor, but I suppose some team will take a shot at him if they find they don’t like any of their other QB projects. He may be in for a position change too.

To the tune of the Mickey Mouse Club theme song (appropriately enough):

*If you’re rooting for this team, you’re simply out of luck,
R-E-D, S-K-I, N-S-U-C-K!

They’ve been so bad for so long, it’s hard to give a fuck,
R-E-D, S-K-I, N-S-U-C-K!

Redskins suck, Redskins suck,
the Redskins suck, they suck, they really blow-ho-ho-ho!

You bet a dollar on my team, you’ll surely lose that buck,
R-E-D, S-K-I, N-S-U-C-K!*

Feel free to add your own verses.

I don’t think that’s true. The odds of scoring from your own 15 are not significantly worse than the odds of scoring from your own 20. In either case, chances are you’ll be punting.

However, the odds of scoring from your own 40 are significantly higher.

Most NFL coaches have limited imagination. Smart coaches like Bill Belichick will let their returners start running back kickoffs that go into the end zone; “common sense” head coaches will not. Guess which strategy will work better?

I really don’t see all the fuss about the kickoff rule. It’s basically restoring kickoffs to something like they were throughout the 80s and early 90s.

The last time it was changed was back in 1994, and that was to move it back from the 35 to the 30. The NCAA naturally followed suit a few years later.

Kickers might be a little better now than 17 years ago, but they can’t be that much better. It opened up the game a bit, but it’s not like football was a dreary, unexciting affair before '94. There were still plenty of great kickoff returns before that.

And that’s not to mention that it was moved back to the 35 from the 40 back in '74. The game actually is significantly different now than in the 70s, but it’s not like the rule is set in stone or that having such forward kickoff spots dooms the return game.

Isn’t there some other difference now? Like they used to use game balls to kick with, and now they have special kicking balls that go further. Or something along those lines. So it’s not the same as it was then.

Not really. The kick balls are new, unused balls. The regular balls used in play are generally broken in from all the use, making them easier to kick. That’s why you see kickers squeezing and generally abusing them before kickoffs - to make them easier to deal with. Otherwise, they’re identical. Same material, air pressure, etc. The kick balls have a ‘K’ printed on them to identify them as such. After games, they’re generally given to teams to use in practices and are never used in regular games again.

If ‘K’ balls were recently introduced, it actually makes kicks harder to make, not easier.

I forgot to mention that the other change was putting all kickoff return guys exactly 5 yards behind the ball. That prevents them from getting such a huge head of steam before hitting the returner. That change actually makes it a bit easier for a returner to advance, though the 5 yard shift probably negates it.

In other words, kickoffs should be as easy as they were in 1990, barring massive changes in kickers’ legs or radical changes in kick coverage.

And Terrelle Pryor, an athlete with an amazing 40 time (for a QB) goes to …

That’s right. The Raiders. They used a third rounder on him.

The 49ers looked pretty good against the Raiders, especially Alex Smith and the O-Line. His stat line is deceiving, at least three incompletes were drops, and one was a strip of what would have been a decent Braylon Edwards catch. The INT was a defensive end dropping into coverage; bad but not shitty stupid QB bad.
Defence also was good, with some takaways and a 4th down goalline sack.

What I didn’t like was uninspired red zone playcalling and OT Anthony Davis. He’s not progressing. We might get Alex Boone, a 2nd year UDFA that looks darn good in there by season’s start.

Pryor looks pretty good when you consider the Raiders’ last ten years of third round picks:

Jared Veldheer, T, Hillsdale
Matt Shaughnessy, DE Wisconsin
Quentin Moses, DE, Georgia
Mario Henderson, OL, Florida State
Paul McQuistan, OL, Weber State
Andrew Walter, QB, Arizona State
Kirk Morrison, LB, San Diego State
Stuart Schweigert, S, Purdue
Sam Williams, DE, Fresno State
Justin Fargas, RB, USC
DeLawrence Grant, DE, Oregon State

Veldheer and Shaughnessy seem to be doing pretty well for themselves; Veldheer started 9 games at left tackle last year, and Shaughnessy had 8 sacks. One other guy on that list (Sam Williams) is still on the team, and of the rest only one (Kirk Morrison) is still in the league.

I don’t see that much difference between Cam Newton and Tyrelle Pryor. Considering what the Panthers spent on Newton Pryor looks like a value. I suspect they’ll both amount to squat though.

Cam Newton and Pryor have similar athletic abilities, but Newton’s much better developed as a passer. He doesn’t have a funky arm motion, and he can actually read defenses somewhat. His college offensive playbook at Auburn was also quite a bit more complicated passing-wise than OSU.

I’m not sure Newton’ll develop into a franchise quarterback, either, but he’s not as much a crapshoot as either Pryor or Tebow.

Newton sure as hell can’t run a 4.39 40.