In a curious move, Trump’s favorability has slid to -14 in 538’s aggregate calculation. Several new surveys were put into the system this week and it’s gotten grimmer.
Yet at the same time, the Generic Congressional has seen the republicans in Congress close from -8.6 to -7.6. So they’ve gained a full point during the last week while Trump has been losing ground.
What accounts for this? I don’t seem to recall this week being overly bad for Trump, nor good for Congressional Rs.
Also, does this change your prediction? We’re moving into primary season and we’ll be seeing individual polls start having meaning soon.
How much noise is in the data? I mean, how much could we expect these results to vary from poll to poll, even if nothing changed in the interim?
To answer your earlier question, I think a bit of his base was disheartened with his signing the Omnibus Bill, and was going through a bit of, “Why Vote; They’re All Bastards Anyway.” As time goes by, and few of his campaign promises—the Wall, repeal Obamacare—are achieved, this feeling will continue within his base. Whether that effect will override a booming economy remains to be seen. And there’s always the risk that something stupid in foreign policy can blow up in his face. Moreover, all of these Republicans are retiring for a reason, and I doubt it’s a good one for their party.
The generic house ballot is particularly noisy because it gets polled a lot less often than Trump job approval. I wouldn’t overly concern yourself with shifts on the order of a point and time scales as little as one week.
That said, we did bomb Syria in the last week and there was some backlash against Trump from both the right and the left over it. Time will tell if this moves the needle.
When do the pollsters generally start switching to LV screens? How much will that change the numbers and how accurate will they be this specific cycle?
Generally anytime from 3 to 6 months out. So we may start seeing some any week now. Of the last ten polls included in 538’s Trump popularity screen only Rasmussen is currently using LV. They consider them a lesser predictor, though, as indicated by their C+ rating and -4 approval adjustment.
Of the last 10 polls aggregated in the Congressional Generic, Rasmussen is the only LV. ALL the rest are RV. Even Rasmussen, however, is still D+5 (adjusted +6). It’ll be interesting to see how those play out over time. Rasmussen has a habit of correcting to the pack as E-Day approaches.
A Korean peace treaty would change things dramatically. Trump would claim that his ham-fisted saber rattling was responsible and I can’t even claim he would be wrong. Not that I would expect it but who knows?
More likely is that nothing will come of it and Trump will find a reason to walk out of talks with Kim.
But we really are not seeing as much of a wave as I expected. I will revise my estimates to 220D, 49D, 51%.
Frightening. Their graphic shows that in 2016, white male millennials favored the generic Democrat by a wide margin (48 to 36). Now they favor the generic Republican by almost the same wide margin. (Female millennials have also shifted to GOP somewhat; non-white millennials have shifted from Dem to Undecided.)
I’d revise my submission in this contest … but hope and pray that a reversal will come soon.
That poll does not alter my assessment at all … and you won’t see data that showing a reversal soon other than the noise it shows week to week already. These are online survey snapshots separated by two years, from a point at the end of the Obama presidency and before the “Northeastern Super Tuesday” primary (with some fair Millennial excitement to voting D for Sanders) and before Trump’s appeal to undereducated Whites took off, then through the most of the Sanders campaign and sour grapes and some Millennial party disillusionment to now.
I cannot even find anything actually of this one other than the bottom line numbers being reported. Maybe this is the polling explorer toy? It’s a pretty noisy toy. They had not been tracking for a while and picking up again after a hiatus makes their tool worth less than usual to my understanding.
IF one takes this online survey seriously then one also should accept that these numbers are are already baked into the special election results and the generic tracker poll numbers.
To the degree that I take this online poll at all seriously I read it as reflecting that maybe some White millennials were most likely to ID as D with Obama in office and before after having tasted the Sanders sour grapes. I would be unsurprised to find that those who switched were also disproportionately the never voters of the age group.
OTOH Pelosi putting herself out in front, announcing that she will indeed run for Speaker if the D’s prevail? Her shining the spotlight on herself is just the ad campaign the Rs are looking for. he’s good, she’s fine, and she can stay off camera for a few months please!
The interim and primary elections have been what I expected. I likely won’t have a good reason to update until there’s some more solid polling in September.
I’m not sure which orifice Donald presented to Vlad.
I’m quite hopeful that the Helsinki debacle is going to cost the Republicans a few points in the polling. People understand how he groveled to Vlad and are ashamed of it. They understand how they would feel if their nursing children were yanked from their breast, never to be seen again. I am much more optimistic than I’ve been in months.
Mine was essentially a wild guess (as any prediction that early would be). I feel as okay about it as I could about any wild guess – perhaps I’m slightly more confident than before, but just barely. I won’t be particularly confident of any prediction until late October and I see what Nate Silver says.
