Interesting to note, here, that the guy most bearish on the D chances - Bone - has the Senate 50-50 while others rate the Senate lower still have majorities for the D side happening in the House.
Also, we do not yet have a single player assuming that the democratic party will NOT take a majority of the overall vote. Numbers range from 51% to 57%.
C’mon, people. Pride where you mouth is!
One ratio weighs on my mind as far as the Senate is concerned: 24:8.
Okay so how do posters here factor in two of the real world events of this last week on the outcomes? Speaking of the PA gerrymandering ruling, that analysts believe translates to decreasing the GOP gerrymander advantage by 3 to 4 seats, and the significant decease in the Dem advantage in the generic polls that seems to be have been caused by the shutdown. Obviously they factor in different directions and to some degree offset each other …
Well, it’s not a good idea to get focused on gerrymandering if you’re actually predicting election results. 538 came out with a pretty intensive report on how gerrymandering actually affects the likelihood of either party winning the HOuse. Summary: The GOP would enjoy a big advantage under any likely redistricting scenario.
As for the shutdown, I don’t think it will be a factor in the House at all. One thing that both parties agree on in gerrymandering is keeping competitive districts to a minimum. In the Senate, there are five Democrats in Trump states who it could actually affect. Their votes will be used against them in campaign ads.
I shouldn’t say this because it probably spoils my chances of winning, but…
Folks who are guessing that Dems will get 55, 56, 57 percent of the vote, do you realize what a tsunami that is? Look back at tidal wave elections. In 2010, when R’s swept into power, they had 52% of the vote. In 2006, when Dems crushed Bush, they had 52%. The drubbing of Clinton in 1994 was just 52% of the vote. The biggest wave election since WWII, in 1948, Dems got just under 53%.
These predictions of such huge numbers would be amazing if they came true, but then we’re probably looking at a shift of like 70, 80, or 90 seats, as in moving toward (but not quite getting) a veto-proof majority in the House. Certainly not picking up a mere 30 or so seats, as some of those predictions suggest.
Do you not realize how big the structural GOP House advantage (as addie notes, not exclusively based on gerrymanders) is in modern times? The nature of those advantages basically spot the GOP 7ish (give or take) on the generic ballot before the game starts. IOW a Democratic popular vote win of 7 is as likely to result in GOP as Democratic control.
2006 had D 52 to R 44 (D+8) and the result was a mere D+29 House seat advantage.
2010 had R 52 to D 45 (a smaller R+7) and the result was instead advantage R +49.
The GOP structural advantage has only grown since.
This is why I’ve been holding my tongue. But it’s not like anything important is on the line, so…
My guess for the House is based on 2008. That was a presidential election year, so mine extrapolation is that a mid-term could match it. There’s simply too many races for Democrats to lose to expect them to get a Senate majority, or even parity.
As for gerrymandering, it’s designed to maximize the majority party’s seats during a typically year. That means there’s a lot of R+5 to R+9 seats. If there’s a wave of say D+10, all those seats Republicans gained from gerrymandering could be lost. How many? Well, I’ve made my guess. 
I’ll want to revise this much later (giving up the tie-breaker edge) but may as well get a bid down:
House 211D, Senate 50D, Vote 53%D
This is as optimistic as I can muster and still leaves GOP in charge throughout D.C.
I’m not clear if you’re arguing that Dems getting 57% of the vote is realistic, or arguing about how many seats 57% of the vote would translate into.
55, 56, 57 percent of only Republican and Democratic votes.
That isn’t in the OP.
Post #28 and #30. I think it should be added to the OP to clarify - I’ll ask JC to modify it.
BTW - is there a concise listing of prior year vote percentages available? I am having trouble for some reason.
Ah, thank you!
Via 2016 United States House of Representatives elections - Wikipedia et cetera:
Year Rep Dem
1998 48.4% 47.3%
2000 47.6% 47.1%
2002 50.0% 45.2%
2004 49.4% 46.8%
2006 44.3% 52.3%
2008 42.6% 53.2%
2010 51.7% 44.9%
2012 47.6% 48.8%
2014 51.2% 45.5%
2016 49.1% 48.0%
House 238D, Senate 51, Vote 52%D
Thanks! So here is the adjusted historical percentages:
Year R D Total Adj R Adj D
1998 48.4 47.3 95.7 51% 49%
2000 47.6 47.1 94.7 50% 50%
2002 50 45.2 95.2 53% 47%
2004 49.4 46.8 96.2 51% 49%
2006 44.3 52.3 96.6 46% 54%
2008 42.6 53.2 95.8 44% 56%
2010 51.7 44.9 96.6 54% 46%
2012 47.6 48.8 96.4 49% 51%
2014 51.2 45.5 96.7 53% 47%
2016 49.1 48 97.1 51% 49%
First of all, Bone? You’re a nerd. I like that about you.
1/21/18
[ul]
[li]USCDiver House 230D, Senate 51D, Vote 53%D[/li][/ul]
1/22/18
[ul]
[li]Bone House 214D, Senate 50D, Vote 51%D[/li][li]Pleonast House 257D, Senate 49D, Vote 55%D[/li][li]DSeid House 228D, Senate 49D, Vote 56%D[/li][li]Railer13 House 225D, Senate 48D, Vote 53%D[/li][/ul]
1/23/18
[ul]
[li]Aspenglow House 277D, Senate 52D, Vote 57%D[/li][li]adaher House 222D, Senate 45D, Vote 53%D[/li][li]BobLibDem House 260D, Senate 51D, Vote 56%D[/li][li]Johnny Ace House 220D, Senate 46D, Vote 55%D[/li][/ul]
1/24/18
[ul]
[li]Wesley Clark House 235D, Senate 50D, Vote 56%D[/li][li]Ravenman House 226D, Senate 49D, Vote 52%D[/li][/ul]
1/25/18
[ul]
[li]septimus House 211D Senate 50D, Vote 53%D[/li][li]DinoR House 238D Senate 51D, Vote 52%[/li][/ul]
House 208D, Senate 46D, Vote 50% D
And a pessimist heard from! UltraVires is the second person to predict that the D’s will NOT take back the house. UV is also the first to predict that the D Vote % will not be a majority!
1/21/18
USCDiver House 230D, Senate 51D, Vote 53%D
1/22/18
Bone House 214D, Senate 50D, Vote 51%D
Pleonast House 257D, Senate 49D, Vote 55%D
DSeid House 228D, Senate 49D, Vote 56%D
Railer13 House 225D, Senate 48D, Vote 53%D
1/23/18
Aspenglow House 277D, Senate 52D, Vote 57%D
adaher House 222D, Senate 45D, Vote 53%D
BobLibDem House 260D, Senate 51D, Vote 56%D
Johnny Ace House 220D, Senate 46D, Vote 55%D
1/24/18
Wesley Clark House 235D, Senate 50D, Vote 56%D
Ravenman House 226D, Senate 49D, Vote 52%D
1/25/18
septimus House 211D Senate 50D, Vote 53%D
DinoR House 238D Senate 51D, Vote 52%
1/26/18
UltraVires House 208D, Senate 46D, Vote 50%D
Maybe I’m misreading something, but doesn’t it require 218 votes to control the House? That would make UltraVires third to make that prediction.