We’ll just use the real first verse, I suspect. For some reason beyond my understanding, we sing the 2nd verse twice.
So with the departure of Syracuse and Pitt from the Big East that leaves, South Florida, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Rutgers, West Virginia, TCU and Louisville in the Football conference. Even if they were able to attract the likes of Navy, Air Force or Houston would they still be “worthy” of a automatic BCS bid?
A&M to the SEC is a done deal.
Welcome to the big time, Aggies.
They really weren’t anyway, not after losing BC, VT, and Miami. Now, the conference’s basic viability in football is doubtful, even if it remains a top hoops conference. If the ACC takes Rutgers and UConn too, the Big East can either officially move downscale, to the WAC/CUSA level, or revert to a non-football conference. Or, they could go raid somebody further down the food chain, in the customary fashion. If they want to keep an Eastern presence in football, then UMass and Temple have free-out clauses in their MAC contracts, and Army and Navy might be interested too. And Villanova (already a member) might actually decide to go 1-A in football, too. I’m not seeing TCU and USF staying in that alignment, though.
The ACC may not take UConn and Rutgers, though, or they might have done it already as a package deal. The other schools may not want the competition in hoops that UConn would bring (remember the ACC is a basketball conference first).
Adding more deadweight to BCS conferences would be a terrible thing to see. A stacked SEC vs. an already weak Big East plus a bunch of weak schools? Not too good.
That’s why I bet the Big East loses its BCS spot after this. The Big 12 isn’t crippled enough yet, but it may come to that point too.
What’s the attraction to a conference of a 16-team football alignment, anyway? Or anything more than the 12 needed to get a championship game? It just looks like more headaches, with no marginal revenue.
Well, more teams means a bigger chance of having a compelling game. That means more national TV exposure, more money, better recruiting position, and eventually a stronger conference. It also gives you more games to put on your network, and a bigger regional area to sell your network. For a future ACC network, they now have access to the Pittsburg and Syracuse markets. That spreads your cost of a network over more users, and makes it more economically viable. I think in terms of football, the ACC move was neutral, but they just got a hell of a lot stronger in basketball.
Obviously, It doesn’t make sense to bring in weaker schools or small markets, but certainly the Big 10 got stronger with Nebraska. If you’re the SEC and looking at the Texases and Oklahomas then that’s bigger market, better games, and a stronger conference. At this point, the Big 12 and Big East are just trying to hang onto their privileged statuses. All other conferences aren’t really actively looking to pick up more members. So like you say, there’s no real benefit for the Big 10 picking up a weaker school like Pitt or 'Cuse when they are established.
There’s three big programs out there that conferences will go after. Notre Dame, Oklahoma, and Texas. Any other moves will be based around getting those guys in a program. Texas seems to be confident enough to make a go at it as a semi-independent with their own TV network in the big 12. Oklahoma doesn’t make geographic sense for anyone really, and ND seems happy as an independent.
IMHO I think the next shoe to drop is Notre Dame. They make a lot less on their football deal with NBC than teams in the Big 10 make. It will make a lot financial sense, to the tune of millions per year, to join the Big 10. IMHO the big question in my mind is whether the Big 10 wants Notre Dame. ND has a lot of cachet, but it’s coasting on reputation at this point. They don’t bring in new TV markets, and there would be a lot of pressure to bring on a 14th member with them.
Texas might be next as well. They have a deal with ESPN for the Longhorn network, but none of the big cable/satellite companies have picked it up. It’s a long deal, but I’m sure ESPN has outs. If they aren’t getting revenue for the station, there’s no point in spending the money on it. So if ESPN drops them, then getting into a stronger conference makes a lot of sense.
OK, good point about adding major new media markets for conference networks as the main reason for expansion. If it’s true that WVU is being stiffed, that would be why - they don’t bring one.
I don’t see that Notre Dame is a major player in any of this, really - the industry has passed them by. They aren’t the perennial power they used to be, haven’t been for a long time, and don’t have the fan/recruit interest base to get it back. They wouldn’t help the Big 10 anymore, as you say, but they wouldn’t help any other conference out of their region much, either. Their Groucho complex about staying independent in football has trapped them, too. If they wouldn’t join the Big 10 (they’ve had offers in the past), they won’t join the Big East in football, and certainly not the MAC. So, look for them to stand pat.
I heard the other night on ESPN radio that a Notre Dame “source” had stated that the only conference ND would consider joining would be the ACC! However, I haven’t heard boo about it since though.
I find that hard to believe, for only the fact that ND would have to give up at least two of their “tradition” games (Navy, Michigan, MSU, and USC).
Yeah, I agree. The story implicated that it went back to the “Catholic boycott” from a couple of decades back. There’s also the fact that the other major Catholic school (BC) is already in the ACC, plus the fact that the ACC may be the only major conference left that might be willing to talk about the Irish keeping a disproportionate of their money. Still, with all that said, I don’t see it happening.
The WAC did something somewhat similar when it (briefly) expanded to a 16-school league back in the late 90s. The schools were grouped into 4 pods of 4 schools each, based on geography. Each pod was paired with another pod to form a divison. The pod-pairings rotated from year-to-year. Teams would play a single round-robin in football and a double round-robin in basketball, with one or two cross-division games (if I remember correctly.) Thus, you played everyone within your pod every year, and were guaranteed to play everyone outside of your pod every few years or so.
I’m an Aggie and I agree with all of this. 
When will TAMU play a full SEC schedule? These games are planned out years in advance, right? Are they going to be playing 8 SEC games next year?
Schedules can be changed fast now even if they were signed way back. When Miami, BC and VT joined the ACC they all had no trouble playing full schedules their first year in the ACC. When you leave a conference there is bad blood so the teams have no problem letting you cancel games.
High five!
Incidentally, I saw this on Twitter this weekend: Texas A&M is winless in both of its conferences. 
Truthfully, I do think there is some flawed thinking about the Ag’s move to the SEC. They may not be competitive at the moment but there will be shifts in power over time. Ole Miss and MSU had very good seasons in the SEC recently. Aggy’s time will come as well. I don’t see A&M as the next Vandy.
There are rumors going around Mizzou circles that Deaton (school Chancellor) is leaning toward staying in the Big IX. I realize his role means looking out for the future for the University as a whole, not just the football program. But I see staying as very short sighted. The academics* aren’t the highest in the SEC (except Vandy), but they not great with the remaining teams in the Big IX.
- Missouri seems to take its AAU membership seriously.
I think what’s going to happen is some kind of agreement between the remaining schools ensuring stability for the next 5-10 years. Horrific penalties if any member schools try to bail, gentlemen’s agreements that they will work to preserve the conference, etc. That will prevent the buzzards from circling over the Big 12’s head.
Along with that, there will be movement for new members. I suspect BYU is number one on the list… I really can’t fathom who’s next. Geographically, a Texas school like Rice or Houston makes sense as well, but both schools have problems as far as appeal and reputation, respectively.
Once the expiry date is reached in the Big 12, I suspect the Pac-12 or Big 10 concerns with Texas will be resolved and Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State will head to the big conferences (SEC might be a good fit for the Oklahoma schools). The Baylors and Kansas States in the Big 12 are going to likely be left high and dry - but maybe they can resurrect the Big 12 by bringing in smaller schools in the region?
Anyway, a prognostication. I have really no f*ckin’ idea what’s going to happen. 
Then why wouldn’t the Big 10 want them? They bring two major markets (St. Louis and Kansas City) and the Big 10 takes the AAU very seriously.
According to ESPN the Big 12 has agreed to share all TV National and regional TV revenue equally. The revenue from the Longhorn Network however will not be shared.