Official SDMB P&E Contest: Iowa and New Hampshire

Oakminster · January 21, 2020, 5:39pm

Iowa:

Biden @ 37%
Buttigieg
Warren

New Hampshire

Bernie @ 31%
Biden
Buttigieg

Thing_Fish · January 21, 2020, 9:20pm

Iowa:

Sanders (22)
Biden
Buttigieg

NH:

Sanders (29)
Biden
Buttigieg

Then Warren drops out and endorses Sanders, game over. In a perfect world Mayor Pete hangs around until Super Tuesday to divide the moderate vote and give Bernie an insurmountable delegate lead.

El_Kabong · January 22, 2020, 5:37am

Iowa:

Biden 23%
Warren
Sanders

New Hampshire:

Sanders 20%
Biden
Buttigieg

Pleonast · February 4, 2020, 3:36pm

I declare myself the winner of Iowa!

Jonathan_Chance · February 4, 2020, 3:46pm

So shall we all!

AK84 · February 4, 2020, 4:11pm

If this had happened in the foreign country the State Department would have issued “statements of concern” and there would have been lengthy pieces in NYT and CNN.com opinion section on how this illustrates the dysfunctional state of Country X.

MortSahlFan · February 4, 2020, 4:12pm

Exactly

Smitty · February 4, 2020, 4:42pm

Iowa

Sanders (26%)
Buttigieg
Biden
New Hampshire
Sanders (30%)
Biden
Buttigieg

Thing_Fish · February 5, 2020, 7:18am

DinoR:

That is still not as clear as you might hope. In previous years Iowa reported state delegate equivalents. That is the estimate share of delegates to the state level convention based on feeding the precinct level delegates actually selected through their estimation of the intervening conventions. The media would report that and sometimes call it the vote;CNN did in 2016. That is just an estimate of the delegates to the state convention that will be selected by the intervening conventions. The media typically tacks on a further estimate of how many delegates for the national convention will be selected by the state convention. That can differ some between media sources due to rounding. As long as we specify CNN and it being the “vote” (actually state delegate equivalents) instead of the national delegates we would have been fine …in 2016.

Unfortunately it is not 2016. Iowa changed things.

Could multiple candidates ‘win’ the Democratic caucuses? New rules make it possible.

Iowa will now be reporting three separate numbers for the Democratic caucuses. There will be where caucus goers initially align, where they align after they see who doesn’t have enough to break threshold in that first alignment, and the state delegate equivalents. We should probably pick which one of those we want to use.

Yes, we should have, but we didn’t. And now it looks likely that the raw vote totals could produce one winner (Sanders) and the SDE count another (Buttigieg).

Halftime scores:

In the world where we say Buttigieg won:

Hari 1, asahi 1, everyone else 0

In the world where we say Sanders won:

pjacks 2, UltraV 1, Squid 1, Oak 1, TF 1, everyone else 0

My personal suggestion would be to give everyone credit for picking either Bernie or Pete first or second, so pjacks 2, 6 others 1.

Thing_Fish · February 5, 2020, 7:36am

I think pjacks can probably start warming up his basking muscles. Seems highly likely that the NH finish will be Sanders-Buttigieg-Warren or maybe Biden. That would give two points to the four players, including pjacks, who picked Sanders-BIDEN-Warren. Hari and pjacks would be tied at 3 if it’s Sanders-Buttigieg-Biden. Oakminster and I would be tied for the lead if Biden rallies to finish second between Bernie and Pete. Asahi and Hari would need Buttigieg to fall out of the top three to have a shot.

Of course, all that assumes that J. Chance takes my suggestion about how to interpret the Iowa results.

asahi · February 7, 2020, 12:54am

I’m fine with taking this as a defeat. My own personal opinion is that Sanders won the race, except for a quirk and a totally botched caucus. I had actually thought more than once about switching my IA prediction to Sanders and just never got around to doing it.

Whatevs…

Thing_Fish · February 14, 2020, 1:54am

Hey, we forgot all about this! If I’m figuring correctly looks like Oak is our winner. Happy basking!

(I decided to count Buttigieg as the winner in IA, since he did end up earning more delegates).

Thing_Fish · February 14, 2020, 1:57am

Nobody called Buttigieg winning Iowa. Only Pleonast and Hari called Biden not making the top three in even one State. Hari called Klobuchar 3rd, but unfortunately he did it in the wrong State.

Jonathan_Chance · February 14, 2020, 12:06pm

Hey, I got distracted, too. Work stuff.

Well done, Oak. Though I dare say we got results that were far outside the predicted outcomes.