I think youa re agreeing with me and jackalope.
I’m probably confused. I think I might be conflating your agrguments with Xtisme. I recognize that you don’t correspondigly confuse my position with Jackalope. I’ll try to keep it separate. So you thinki we should do what hellestal said. OK tell me, what did Hellestal say that is politically possible?
They’ll never start a war with us. Not for decades to come. They can’t even wage a nuclear war with us. They have maybe 50 missiles that can reach us.
Could have fooled me.
I;m saying it would never get to that because we wold so convincingly kick their ass they wouldn’t start a shooting war over our retaliatory tariffs.
I don’t think you understand what he proposed (either that or I didn’t).
You’ll never have wage inflation in an employer’s market, which has been the case since at least late 2000.
I am surprised that you weren’t hit with a “wage inflation will only drive up consumer prices”. I guess maybe I shouldn’t be surprised given that the pro-offshoring side already trotted out the “inflation has not been so bad since the 1950s” argument against me, effectively nailing their own airtight coffin around any “if we raise wages or bring jobs back then TVs will be totally unaffordable” response. Just in case you’re hit with those boogeymen I figured I’d bring up that rigorous inflation-since-the-1950s proof again. 
I’m surprised someone didn’t repeat “lower taxes to create jobs!” to you in response to this. Odd.
They’re not coming. New jobs WILL arise but there is no reason to think that they will arise in America, at least not anymore. There once was a time when this was dependably the case. We shed old technology and adopted new technology. now the new technology is being introduced in placed like China and india and less and less frequently, here.
This isn’t liberal or conservative. Its a bunch of people who are generalizing economic orthodoxy and dogma to the point where they can’t apply theory to specific situations.
They’re not coming. New jobs WILL arise but there is no reason to think that they will arise in America, at least not anymore. There once was a time when this was dependably the case. We shed old technology and adopted new technology. now the new technology is being introduced in placed like China and india and less and less frequently, here.
This isn’t liberal or conservative. Its a bunch of people who are generalizing economic orthodoxy and dogma to the point where they can’t apply theory to specific situations.
BTW I don’t think hyperinflation is inevitable.
Indeed. In fact your analysis points to what I usually say quite bluntly: it’s not just an America problem, it’s an America lacks any balls problem. We also have an overpopulation of whores problem: politicians who’ll sell their bumholes to the highest bidder. Including overseas bidders if they can find a way to get away with it.
Exactly. That’s my point. The jobs won’t come here. They aren’t coming here anymore. Been that way for the last 10 years. Pro-offshoring people have no answer for that.
We’re reaching a point where old theories are being challenged by new realities. The pro-capitalist side cannot adapt; but in the distant future I’m sure history will say the same about all sides. Right now, however, the pro-offshoring side is the one that isn’t keeping up.
There’s several kinds of inflation. IMO, hyperinflation in America would require a severe shortage of goods in addition to a devaluation of the dollar. If you live near and shop at a farmer’s market or something like that you may not be as affected. The skyrocketing cost of oil is what would drive inflation of any sort if the US dollar collapses: pesticides, plastics, transportation of food, all that.
At that point three things will happen: one, we’ll dig deep into the oil shale business to bring down the cost of oil. Two, we’ll go gangbusters for alternative renewable energy. Three, the anti-nuclear liberals will get thrown in front of the political bus by the rest of us liberals. Say hello to pebble bed: hopefully in English, not Mandarin.
I believe that a major drop in the value of the dollar is absolutely certain. One, austerity measures have been proven historically to not work. You cut welfare and many businesses that depend on spending by the poor will close. You have major grocery chains like Kroger that wait hand and foot on the time of the month when welfare checks get disbursed: take that away and you’ve hacked off their legs at the thigh. Ahhhhnuld here in California has tried to cut welfare; Republicans, when they win in November, are certain to try to deny funding by locking up Congress. Cut unemployment benefits extensions for the 99ers and you have the same problem; cut them for the 26ers and you’ll see a major chain reaction of store closures and additional lost tax revenue which will more than wipe out the benefits of ending unemployment extensions. Plenty of Republicans have been outrageously adamant about cutting this. Cut Pell grants and there goes a significant portion of college students and the educated workforce base: more lost tax revenue. These moves will throw the country into a faster debt spiral because of a massive amount of lost tax revenue. Plus there’s also the unrest it will cause: which means more outlays for law enforcement, jails, what have you. And you know how much it costs to keep prisoners…
Then there’s the faction of Republicans who absolutely vow to deny Congress another debt ceiling raise. If they vote in lock-step like they have been doing, this could happen in the House of Representatives, which would mean we would default. (Were you here when someone said it was unconstitutional to default on the debt? Man, and they call me dumb 
.)
Also, our debt cannot just grow into perpetuity. That inevitably leads to a currency collapse.
Is your point here that the Republicans will not actually have the courage to do these things that they’ve been trumpeting about? If so then that’s a valid question.
So you keep claiming.
And then the offshoring will stop. You seem to be claiming that the solution is inevitable. So why bother with tariffs? You’re absolutely certain the dollar will collapse. If you’re right, offshoring will be dramatically reduced; the USA will not be able to import nearly as much. So the problem you’re complaining about will stop. A devalued US dollar will have precisely the same effect as imports - you yourself state that that’s why China artificially devalues the yuan.
Damuri sort of half understands:
No, DA, I’m not; I’m simply try to explain to Jacquelope that his own claims will cancel each other out.
I do not care if you are a member of the SDMB or not.
You’re actually seriously asking this question? Really?
Isn’t it obvious why? I support tariffs in order to prevent the chaotic collapse of the dollar! You do not appreciate the difference between a controlled change in trade relations and the catastrophic, sudden and uncontrollable force that would be unleashed by a precipitously plunging dollar? Or maybe you don’t think I appreciate the difference?
BTW you have failed yet to explain how any more great, better paying job booms are going to be created for American workers by offshoring. And there is also the loose end of your fears of some kind of shooting war between America and China. What exactly are they going to hit us with?
The dollar won’t collapse “chaotically.” It could decline substantially in value, which would in fact reduce offshoring more than an increase in Chinese currency would (since it would affect all U.S. trade partners, not just China.) But there’s no realistic scenario where it collapses “chaotically,” unless, of course, there’s an international trade war. Which is what YOU want, not me.
But you’ve already worked out your version of how history will progress.
This is actually a different question from your previous questions as to what the specific jobs would be.
I find it hard to believe you can’t Google “Fastest growing job sectors” or some such thing. Try that. The answer to your previous question as to what jobs are created through any sort of economic productivity is… those jobs. I’ll do your homework for you. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the fastest growing job sectors:
With a Bachelor’s Degree:
- Biomedical Engineer
- Network Analyst
- Financial Examiners (I think they mean auditors)
- Trainers
- Software Engineers
- Environmental Engineers
- Financial Advisors
- Survey Research
With s Post-Grad Degree:
- Medical Science
- Assistant Physicians (a job I did not know existed)
- Biochemists and Biophysicists
- Veterinarians
- Physical Therapists
- Anthropologists and Archaeologists (!!!)
- Environmental Scientists (there’s a lot of crossover, obviously)
- Prosthodontists
- Organizational Psychologists
- Geographers
With Associate Diploma/Community College:
- Skin Care Specialist
- Dental Hygenist
- Veterinary Tech
- Physical Therapist
- Environmental Engineering Techs
- Fitness Trainers
- Occupational Therapists
- HVAC Techs
- Paralegals
With High School/GED:
- Home Heath Care Workers
- Home Elderly Care Workers
- Physical Therapists
- Dental Assistants
- Medical Assistants
- “Self-enrichment teachers” (I dunno)
- Compliance Officers
- Occupational Therapists
- Pharmacy Techs
- Medical Administration
So these appear to be growing right now, and will likely constitute many of the gains in employment in the near future.
Fifty nuclear weapons would be my primary concern. If you get into a full scale wear with a country that can explode 50 nukes on your country, you will lose the war, no matter how many nukes you hit them with. Everyone loses that war. For that matter, would a proxy war over Taiwan really be in anyone’s best interest even if it stayed conventional?
I’m not saying I know a trade war would result in a shooting war, but stupidity and “Let’s kick ass!” had led to such things all too often.
NEWS FLASH!!! A trade war is already going on. It’s just totally lopsided, with China being the aggressor.
You seem to have a problem with anyone but them engaging in such things.
I did. The problem is, you cannot understand the difference between “fastest growing” and “growing fast enough to keep up with population growth”.
Uh huh. Come back and talk to me when job creation in these sectors, combined, actually catches up with population growth. You think you’re being slick by avoiding the job growth versus working class population growth issue, but that’s not slick: it’s evasive.
Five years from now when this problem persists we’ll be talking about another rising problem that will actually compete with offshoring as a major jobs killer: vastly increased productivity, namely, 1 employee stuck doing the job of the 5 that got laid off. Oh wait, that’s already happening now.
I can scarcely help what you define as “stupidity” but I can help to correct you on that “let’s kick ass!” bit. I’m not talking “let’s kick ass”. I oppose the Draft vehemently enough to be willing to give my life in an armed rebellion if it ever happens again: as such, you sure as hell cannot ever in all honesty say I support a shooting war against China. Where you got “let’s kick ass!” from, God only knows: it did not come from me.
And I’m guessing from your own post here that you believe the Chinese would not share America’s fear of a nuclear war. Really? Are you, by any chance, a fan of the Fallout series of games? Outside of that universe it is hard to imagine China EVER launching against the U.S. Precisely for the same reason you said 50 nukes are your primary concern: our 5000 nukes are their primary concern.
You’ve been accusing others of putting words in your mouth; how odd that you’re now doing the same thing.
I counted at least three outright lies about my position in your last post, Jacquelope, as well as four hopeless and stupid misunderstandings.
As you’re now just lying about me personally, we’re done. It’s pointless; you’re not arguing with me, but feel free to continue debating your straw man. I’m not even going to point out your silly errors anymore. Except for the unemployment thing, since that’s forever coming up on these boards.
You have an odd way of seeing things. You mistakenly assumed I WANT a dollar collapse when I’ve been saying that tariffs would be better and would prevent that. You dreamed up a “let’s kick ass!” mentality that no one was showing here. You fail to understand that a trade war is already occurring; it’s just one-sided. You brought up this phony boogeyman about nuclear wars and shooting wars. You’re FAR from qualified to accuse anyone of errors, lying or using straw man arguments, considering I caught you in at least THREE such mistakes in the last post alone.
I didn’t tell any lies about your position: I used your own exact words.
You can be done all you want to. You know for a fact that I’m right about job growth in the last 10 years and in the next ten to come. I made no errors - but you can no longer keep up with all the humiliating mistakes you’ve made and which I have been hammering you with.
Let’s get this correct and make no mistake: you are on 150% the run from yourself, not me. You’re not mature enough to admit you’re wrong even after I’ve cornered you on your lies about me.
ETA: Naw…you aren’t worth getting a mod angry at me over.
-XT
Come, now. Mods don’t get angry at posters; we simply wield very large mauls of justice.
You will note that accusations of lying are not permitted in this forum. Refrain from such accusations in the future.
Le Jacquelope, you also (along with everyone posting to this thread) need to tone down the rhetoric, avoiding the personal comments.
I am about ready to close this thread on the grounds that it has been going around in circles for a while, now, (and from up here it looks like its circling the drain).
I will leave it open if you folks can redirect your energies to discussing the issue in the OP.
If you want to follow up on one of the sidebar discussions, then open a new thread (politely).
[ /Moderating ]
Well, comparative advantage that for any combination of competitive advantages, the size of the pie is larger and everyone gets more if you engage in trade. The example that is frequently used is the lawyer and the secretary. The lawyer can type 120 words a minute and the secretary can only type 80 words a minute but the lawyer can command a lot more money for his legal talent than the secretary can for her legal talent. So, as ANYONE can see, everyone is better off if both the lawyer and the secretary does what they do best. Well, noone talks about how its better to be the lawyer than the secretary and even if you engage in inefficient behaviour, you are better off being the lawyer.
That’s what China is doing to us. China has leveraged their absolute advantage in cheap labor into other competitive advantages. Well, thats going to keep happening until the USA realizes that corporations get more from doing business with us than tax cuts. Unfortunately there is one party that is dead set on making it as easy as possible for corporations to rape America.
If anyone is of the opinion that lower taxes are the only thing we can offer business, then you’ve already given up on America and might as well move to India or China right now and catch the wave.
We will adapt, the rules of economics changes as society changes. This is what makes it a social science and not a hard science. What makes sense today may not make sense in a hundred years or even in 20 years.
Economists actually spent the time to outline the conditions under which we should default on the national debt. we had to become energy independent and balance the budget while maintaining the largest military in the world.
We should be doing all of that right now but especially this one. I say throw them under the bus right now.
It is in fact unconstitutional to default on our debt. I don’t know how the debt cap works with the interest. I would think there has to be a pressure valve in any debt ceiling that congress has implemented to account for this otherwise the law implementing the debt ceiling would be unconstitutional.
Yes it can, as long as the debt grows at a rate no faster than our GDP growth, we can maintain a larger debt load every year, year after year after year, in perpetuity. What we can’t maintain is the debt we have now combined with the tax regime we have now because the debt accumulates interest faster than our ability to collect taxes at current rates.
Yeah, despite all evidence to the contrary, I think the Republican party is not actually interested in ruining America, they are only interested in being in power and noone wants to preside over the dismantling of America. They will stop acting like Republicans when we are about to fall over the edge. Paulson the former CEO of Goldman Sachs along with George W. Bush and all the neocons lined up behind the idea of stimulus spending and the TARP bailout. IN the end, they know their theories are bullshit and when their ideology pushes the economy to the brink they pat their supply side ideologues on the head and fall back on REAL economic theory. I think they will make a LOT of noise about how the Democrats are forcing them to do it but they will ultimately do it because they are not actually as stupid as they seem.
You realize that with a very few exceptions none of those jobs produce anything that will alleviate the trade deficit. I thought then point was that all this importing was going to create jobs that would produce value that we cold export. As far as i can tell, most of those jobs, especially the ones for the high school grads (and probably the high school dropouts) are providing services that can only be consumed domestically (I guess some tourist might want fries with their shake).
Those jobs are not adding enough net jobs to the economy to keep up with population growth, we had a surge of real estate brokers and construction workers during the Bush years but once those evaporated, it became painfully obvious that there has been no real job growth in the US in a decade.
We may not have the ability to shoot down thousands of Russian nuclear warheads but I think we have the ability to shoot down 50 of them. IN any event noone with 50 warheads is going to even think about getting into a pissing match with us.
First that war never gets fought. The Chinese are not that stupid. Secondly, we’re going to lose Taiwan and most of Asia to a Chinese “sphere of influence” sometime soon.
I think its worth noting a few things:
In China, not everyone can work in a factory or participate in the new economy. China STRICTLY regulates who can participate in the new economy. They understand that they cannot flood the market with their cheap labor and they regulate the labor supply pretty strictly. Everyone else gets to pick rice in the countryside. They are able to maintain this dichotomy because the Chinese believe that things are getting better for everyone and that opportunities will be opened to them as well eventually.
There are more opportunities for people with more education or vocational skills so the rice pickers spend all their money sending their kids to college or technical school. This is making their workforce more and more educated and skilled every day but China has kept their populace fully employed. I don’t say this because I think we should have our unemployed pick rice, I say this because I want to demonstrate that China understands the cost of economic displacement. Something the free marketeers here seem to think is just an unavoidable side effect of transition. And while displacement IS an unavoidable side effect of transition, the displacement has gotten out of control in this country and noone seems interested in slowing China’s roll until we can absorb the displacement.
Well that’ll take a few years - namely, the time it takes to build the nuke plants. To amend your post, I’d change “right now” to “decades ago”.
How many Three Mile Islands would it take to equal one Chernobyl?
So the Constitution forbids Congress to outright refuse to raise the debt ceiling? Or it forbids Congress from passing a budget that allows the debt to outrun GDP? What about Congress delaying it indefinitely?
That’s the scenario I was assuming would go on into the long term. Is it unconstitutional to allow this to go on?
Which is kind of disappointing. I actually want to see them do what they say. Only when they get their way and things totally fall apart will we be able to settle this.
Of course even then they’ll probably blame it on the Democrats. See: the whole CRA myth (and the fact that during 6 years of Bush & the Republican Congress, they never repealed the CRA, but that’s another whole thread).
headdesk
Oh and, can we, like, bury that horribly misguided paranoia that China’s going to ever consider going to war with America simply because we might refuse to buy their goods? “Buy our imported poisoned crap… or we’ll Dr. Evil pinkie move launch our FIFTY NUKES at you!”
I think so-big corporations are setting up shop in India and China, where they can get research work done for a fraction of the USA cost.
We are also seeing offshoring of certain government functions-a UK city now has its water system controlled by an Indian company.
Maybe the whole thing will stop when law firms go offshore-suppose you could hire an Indian lawyer for $30/hour instead of $300+?
I’d love to see big law firms in the USA shutting down,because their work has been outsourced!