I was just reading this article about possible plans for Turkey to attack the PKK (the Kurdistan Workers Party) for their alleged attack on the Ankara shopping district. Of course, the PKK denies that they were responsible…however, the war drums are apparently banging in Turkey and the populous is calling for blood.
This is definitely my definition of an ‘Oh shit!’ moment…or at least the potential for one. This conflict has been brewing for a LONG time…but (at least I though) the possibility of inclusion of Turkey in the EU had put it on the back burner. Sort of.
However, it looks like the pot may be boiling over…and that Turkey has its sights set on Northern Iraq as well.
For debate…gods, where to start? What will Turkey do? Thus far the PKK has denied they were responsible for the bombing…but afaik no one else has claimed responsiblity. That seems…odd to me, in and of itself. Why do something like that and then not claim responsibility for the propaganda value? Be that as it may…should Turkey at least wait until this thing is properly investigated before even considering such a drastic move? What will the Euro’s do if Turkey DOES pursue the military option? What will the US do if Turkey takes a large military force into Northern Iraq? Hell, what will the Kurds do? The non-Kurdist Iraqi’s?
The Turks crossing into Iraq would put the U.S. in a very difficult position. The Turks have been our allies for decades, but the Iraqi Kurds have been our best allies in Iraq up to now. And there’s no way we can avoid choosing sides.
I’d be amazed if this turned into anything serious. The last thing the Turks want is to destabilize the only stable pocket of Iraq – a pocket which happens to provide a bulwark against the hundreds of thousands of Iraqi refugees who would otherwise be flooding into Turkey, oh, right about now.
Ankara has to rattle its sabers a little to appease the populace, and maybe even stage a limited cross-border raid or two, but it’d be lunacy for them to do more than that. And you can believe that the U.S. will do anything it can think of to keep a lid on the situation.
Gee, you’d think this was such a difficult outcome to predict four years ago when we were talking about taking out Saddam and creating a power vacuum in Iraq. NOBODY could have foreseen that Turkey and the Kurds would go nose-to-nose…
The US has been trying to placate the Turks on the Kurds by supporting their entry into the EU. Of course the US doesn’t have a lot of pull with Europe these days because of the invasion of Iraq, which is why they need to placate the Turks. The Turks have been active in the Kurdish region of Iraq for years. In 2003, US forces arrested Turkish special forces in the Kurdish north, link
Not the USA. But the European Union might. Would Turkey give up it’s Kurdish provinces in exchange for membershio in the EU? Of course Europe’s not going to let Turkey join anytime soon.
The US couldn’t (and wouldn’t) complain. The Kurds have been killing Turkish civilians for decades, and Turkey is getting fed up. The US wouldn’t put up with this happening on its own soil; it can hardly criticize Turkey for failing to put up with it. (Of course, Turkey has treated the Kurds like total shit over the years, but that’s a separate question.)
