OK, so do refs get instructed to favor certain teams/individuals, or not? What's the straight dope?

Then the Cowboys, with the largest fan base (and anti-fan base) would have been gifted a trip to the Super Bowl in the past decade.

This is my guess too. ISTR a writer (maybe Frank Deford) grousing some years ago that Atlanta Braves pitchers could throw to first base and get a called strike. I’m sure the home plate ump is trying to call 'em like he sees 'em, but trying to pinpoint the location of a little ball dancing toward you at 90+ mph can’t be easy. I can only imagine some unconscious bias weighs the calls one way or the other.

I find fixing hard to believe because most games have video evidence. So it should be fairly easy to keep a database of bad calls. And thus if any refs were making bad calls with any discernible pattern, it would be fairly easy to see.

Throw in that all it takes is for one person to squeal and the whole thing goes down, and it just seems highly unlikely anyone would risk it. Especially when I suspect it would be a wash based on who wins. If someone unusual makes it big, that’s tons of new fans. But if the usual people make it, then you satisfy your long term fans. And neither wants their team to win unfairly. And if you seem to bet better than you should and you are involved in the system, then that’s very suspicious.

I don’t see it making any sense to do it that way. It’s extremely high risk for basically non-existent reward.

Doesn’t this make the theory unfalsifiable? If the outcomes aren’t evidence, and there isn’t statistical evidence, then what’s left?

Its been overstated.

Wouldn’t a sports official betting on his own sport already be a firing offense, regardless of how well his bets do? Yeah, yeah, they could place their bets through third parties, but it’s always possible to trace those things if you put enough effort into it.

Ed Rush in the Pac12 Tournament.

Seahawks?! I’m confused. They have probably been the most hurt by bad officiating over the years. One year they didn’t make the playoffs all because the officials couldn’t tell the difference between Vinnie Teastaverde’s helmet and the ball (and FWIW his helmet never crossed the line either). They have suffered from officials not being able to manage the game clock at the end of the game twice. Everyone point to the Fail Mary but the reason the Seahawks were behind was because of a phantom PI call earlier in the 4th quarter. And look at this season, a receiver is mugged by 2 defensive backs in the corner of the endzone as the ball is 2 feet above his head. That is called DPI 99.97% of the time.

Now I’m not saying that the officials have it in for the Seahawks. I do think they get a disproportionate number of bad calls and some teams like the Steelers get the good calls but I attribute it more to bad officiating and the unclear definitions in the rule book (is it a catch?). That being said, look at Super Bowl XL. Whether intentional or subconciously the officials were going to give that game to the Steelers no matter what.

At what level was this decision made to give the game to the Steelers? Did the refs talk before the game? Do you think all 7 refs on the squad intentionally or subconsciously decided to give to the Steelers? If not all 7, how many of the refs do you think were involved?
See, the problem with saying that there was some sort of decision beforehand, you now need to backup and figure out when that decision was made. So when was it made and by how many? Are you suggesting that X number of refs on that crew independently decided to give the game to Pittsburgh subconsciously? Why would they do that?

Unless you are suggesting all players/teams play the sport in the same way, of course you are going to get disparity in the number of calls. Some teams and players play penalty free. Others try to push the limit as often as they can. This happens in every sport. Teams that foul more will get called more. It doesn’t mean there is a conspiracy afoot.

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You had me at “L”

The CT is that that one or two of the officiating crew wanted the Steelers to win for Jerome Bettis - maybe subconciously.

But if it wasn’t a fix, then how do you account for supposedly the best crew in football calling one of the worst officiated* games ever? So bad that even the NFL said they fucked it up.
*Like calling Seattle for an illegal block for tackling a ball runner. Explain that! It may be one of the worst officiating calls ever made in the NFL.

Pocket-posting again, I see. :smiley:

There is always a tendency to justify officiating after the fact, like how shoppers justify buying a bad product if a refund is not possible. It’s a way of making inward psychological peace with an unpleasant thing.