In the MLB thread, there’s a discussion on the Yankee’s whos sucking so far this year and some are writing them off for the season and others are saying "it’s only 13 games in they’ll come back "
Now I know some sports have more individual games than others but when should you just shake your head and say “maybe next year ?”
I was ready to write off the Nats when they started the 2019 season 19-31. History proved the wiser.
Very extreme example. 1914 Boston Braves.
26-40 in early July, then went 68-19 to win the pennant. Won the Series in four games.
As a Mariners fan - usually sometime during spring training.
It’s just easier that way.
I write off my New York Jets before the season even begins.
I’ve got all four of the major Detroit teams written off through at least 2027.
I mostly follow the Packers (so, I haven’t had too many occasions to write my team off over the past 30 years). That said, if you are an NFL fan, and your team starts out 0-4, you can probably write off the season, as only one team (the 1992 Chargers) has started 0-4 and still made the playoffs – after that start, the Chargers went 11-1 the rest of the way.
Staying with the NFL: if your team is built around an elite QB (e.g., Rodgers, Brady, etc.), and that player suffers a season-ending injury, particularly in the first half of the season, odds are pretty high that you can write off the season, unless you have a lot of confidence in your team’s coaching staff and backup QB.
As @kenobi_65 alluded to, many people write a team off when making it into the post-season competition becomes highly unlikely. It’s way too early to put any baseball team into that category, even the Yankees. Not too long ago, Oakland was 1-7, but thanks to winning 7 straight, are now 8-7 and doing fine.
I’m a Cubs fan so, minus exceptional circumstances, I’m used to writing them off in spring training. This year is not one of those exceptional circumstances, so I have very little expectation of this team.
Indeed. The baseball season is long enough that even a terrible April isn’t necessarily the kiss of death for a successful season.
This article shows several teams over the past 20 years which had lousy Aprils, and made the playoffs, including the 2001 A’s, which were 8-17 at the end of April, and wound up winning 102 games.
(If your team is still in the cellar by Memorial Day, on the other hand…)
that was my original thought that if your 20-40 I’m may well …
When they can’t make the playoffs.
The 1989 Blue Jays were 12-24 after 36 games, and came back to finish first.
When you write off your team has a lot to do with the amount of season left, but it also has a lot to do with an honest assessment of the team’s abilities. Even at 12-24, people still had hope in the 1989 Blue Jays, because they were a talented core of players that had been successful for a number of years, the 12-24 start was obviously really flukey, and there were no strong teams in the division - the day the Jays were 12-24, the division’s first place teams (it was a tie) were at just 17-17.
The currently 5-10 New York Yankees are rather a more extreme example; they are obviously not actually a bad team and have 147 games left. They are closer to first, with more games left, than the 1989 Blue Jays were.
On the other hand, if your team looked pretty shitty to start the season, and THEN they go 12-24, it might be wise to begin emotionally detaching yourself from their fortunes this year.
The 1914 Boston Braves, even more so than the 2019 Nationals, are probably the most extreme comeback in MLB history because
They were behind halfway into the season, and
There was no reason at all to think they’d be good. The Braves had had eleven losing seasons in a row, and had the same basic cast of characters. Even their own wives didn’t think that team was good.
I think when considering whether to write off a team, their record is only a part of the equation.
Some very weak teams can start the season with respectable - even very good - runs. But you know in your heart they’re going to tank because the talent is not there.
mmm