'Zactly. It’ll look like @Wesley_Clark says at the state level only so long as the Feds haven’t been suborned … yet.
Once the Federal government is permanently R, it’ll take about 10 years to go from a clownish authoritarian wannabe like Trump to a serious authoritarian like Cruz or De Santis to a violent tyrant like Lukashenko.
Much as happened in Russia there will be a battle under the covers between the oligarchs of great wealth, and the inner circle of government higher ups in the executive and especially the police-ish departments thereof.
America’s democratic experiment may well be nearing its end. That’s not hyperbole; it’s obvious to anyone following the political scene. Republicans might take power legitimately; they might win through pervasive voter suppression; G.O.P. legislators might simply refuse to certify Democratic electoral votes and declare Donald Trump or his political heir the winner. However it plays out, the G.O.P. will try to ensure a permanent lock on power and do all it can to suppress dissent…
The point is that neither megalomania at the top nor rage at the bottom explains why American democracy is hanging by a thread. Cowardice, not craziness, is the reason government by the people may soon perish from the earth.
Somewhat related to madmonk28’s article, is my disgust at the people surrounding Trump that are not directly beholden to him. For example McGahn is finally due to testify, although with serious caveats and exceptions. There are people, who yes, are at some legal and ethical risk if they come forward, because the (R) are proving to be exceptionally vengeful to appease their dictator wannabe - but they are also the ones most equipped to realize the consequences of letting Trump and his ilk get away with it.
Sure, there were reasons to stall while Trump was protected from any possible repercussions by a complicit Senate, but people should be coming out of the woodwork - and yet they don’t. Yes, they could loose professional credentials, or public trust. But those that have failed Trump aren’t going to be approached for a position of power in the future, and they’ll still have to live here in the future that they’re enabling.
But people don’t have to be actively evil for evil things to happen, they just have to be sufficiently passive in the face of motivated evil. And that’s where I honestly think we are.
I don’t know. I feel like as long as they neuter the citizen’s ability to affect the government from elections that would be enough.
But I could be wrong. But in deep red states, other than taking away the ability of citizens to affect the government with voting, they aren’t engaged in hardcore human rights abuses. There are efforts to limit people’s ability to protest, restrictions on women’s medical decisions, some pushback against LGBT rights. But they aren’t engaged in widescale legal torture against civil rights activists.
I think for the GOP, the ideal system is Jim Crow under the south except a system people they don’t like (leftists, feminists, non-whites, etc) pay taxes and work, but they have 0 impact on government or social policy and they are kept in their place with institutional terrorism.
But I don’t know if they’ll ever get that far. Even if the GOP takes full control of the federal government, many blue states will still be under democratic government and most cities will be under democratic government too.
I don’t feel I’m underestimating the GOP. They are craven and evil and like I said, if they could they’d take us back to a Jim Crow era. I’m just not sure if they’ll be able to do so. I’m hoping a quasi independent judiciary as well as multiple states and governments being under democratic control will allow some resistance. Plus under Jim Crow, blacks had no political power, no wealth, no ability to organize, etc. Democrats will still have blue states, city governments, trillions in wealth, half the electorate, and highly educated citizens.
The public are more educated now than ever before. But then again, people are educated in Poland and that place keeps moving towards dictatorship.
But I didn’t think it was possible for Trump to win the primary, didn’t think he could win in 2016, and thought in 2020 he’d get less than 63 million votes. So what do I know.
As someone who has been to both Chile and Argentina for wine related business trips I can assure you Argentina is better for good wine, delicious food and is much more interesting. Personally I’m more likely to consider Portugal as my fallback country.
This is an important distinction and I’m glad you made it. There’s a difference between illiberal democracy or quasi-democracy authoritarianism, and dictatorship. The latter is the stuff of Hitler, Franco, and Mussolini. It’s secret police and shit like that. The other is just a democracy ruled by oligarchs who have rigged the game so that they win 70-80% of the time.
I will react carefully. We’ve been given a 4 year reprieve, for which I am grateful. 2022 will give us some combination of legitimate GOP wins and illegitimate ones. Also Democratic wins. That will provide a clue where I should focus my attention and efforts, such as they are.
I don’t expect us to transform into North Korea, more like one Party rule at the national level with a freeish press. There’s also a distinct possibility of GOP implosion, given that capital isn’t 100% on their side. A lot of what they do is bad for business after all: democracy, for example, is great for business.
Personally, I’ve tossed my American Exceptionalist illusions. Middle income countries routinely tamper with democratic norms; freedom in those countries cycles over time. I’ve read about this in the Economist for decades, believing that the US was somehow immune from that flux. We aren’t, it turns out. We’re just like them, only luckier.
Travel is always an option, if you ignore climate change.
City and state politics won’t mean much if there’s an actively autocratic federal government with (almost) guaranteed perpetual control. There are probably any number of techniques available to a traitorous federal executive and judiciary which would effectively neuter the powers of state and local governments but nobody’s ever seriously considered doing that so the techniques remain undiscovered.
If you own SCOTUS you can remove practically any rights thought to be enjoyed by the several states.
Here in FL they are passing laws right and left authored by ALEC. One of the standard provisions is that it is a criminal offense for any county or lower-level government to even introduce motions to consider passing ordinances that would contravene or extend the terms of the state law. Said criminal liability attaching directly to the councilman, mayor, whatever, who has the temerity to even mention such a idea for local regulation.
So, e.g., the state decrees that marijuana dispensaries may be everywhere without restriction. Or that there shall be no regulations against the conversion of single family homes into unregulated hotels housing dozens. Or that cities and counties may not enact any emergency orders about diseases.
Any attempt by teh county or city government to perform their essential functions is a criminal violation of state law investigated by the state law enforcement and prosecuted by the state AG in teh state courts.
This is happening right now and has been for about 4 years.
There will be small constitutional obstacles to the Feds doing the same to the Blue States. But said obstacles are totally overcome when the SCOTUS says so. The Red states of course will be totally happy with the coming Federal Nazi boot on their throat.
As many countries have learned to their chagrin, their highest court can certainly put some brakes on the rush to totalitarianism.
But with enough crony sleepers on the court and enough time in office for some of the others to die off, even the most sensible high court can be suborned into abject toadies of the ruling regime. Without even needing to resort to bribery, threats of mob attack, or arbitrary arrest and detention. All of which remain in the arsenal of the true tyrants, once we put one in place.
the issue I guess is that aren’t nudges still pulled from the ranks of the federalist society? I would assume. those judges are still help to a level of professionalism even if we disagree on their rulings sometimes.
what happens when people like Mike Lindell and Rudy Giuliani are on the Supreme Court?
in Venezuela the Supreme Court is a captured appendage of the executive branch. it can happen. Poland is trying to reshape the courts right now.
imo, the only reason trump and the gop coup failed is because the military and judiciary are still independent and run by fairly professional people. once those people are replaced with ditto heads our democracy will be at far more risk.
I think you’re exactly right in principle, but what I fervently hope for, when I lay my head on my pillow at night, is that the SCOTUS is a sui generis sort of bubble – kind of like DC is, inside the Beltway, but with a current that is antithetical to the usual DC politics.
IOW: “many come to Washington to change the system, but the system changes them.”
Maybe there is something to the SCOTUS, and – at least so far – to those who make it there, that they so revere, and to which they are so inclined to defer, that maybe it takes some of the juice out of the Manchurian Justice.
Trump and the immediately preceding R Presidents actually didn’t appoint Trumply judges and justices. They were appointing fatcat oligarchy / corporate overlord supporting judges / justices. Who also embrace shiny white cultural conservatism, but not Southern Fried Baptist cultural reactionary-ism. And for sure, if a particular case leans one way for culture and the other way for fatcat economics, they’re gonna side with economics every time.
From a standing start I estimate it’ll take 20-25 yeas to suborn the federal bench & SCOTUS via natural turnover. What we don’t / can’t know today is how many of the Trump and late GWB appointees are themselves falling down the RW OANN etc., propaganda black hole. Or were leaning that way before being appointed.
Trump cluelessly pissed away his 4 year opportunity to pack the bench with syncophants. If he gets a second chance that mistake won’t happen again. Largely because the rest of the R party apparatus and folks like McConnell have fully joined the hard-right bandwagon’s hijack of our nation.
