Old S/F plot comes to life....

Several years back, I read a book, The Earth Abides. The basic plot of which is that a plague hits humanity and sweeps across the planet, killing off most of the population, leaving a handful of survivors to pick up and move on. The book opens with a quote from Chemistry and Engineering News (I think that’s the title) about how with the advent of jet air travel, diseases could easily sweep across the planet because of far-traveling people.

My question is, is AIDS the modern plague? Is it the old S/F plot come to life?

Consider these points. 1) After being infected with HIV, the disease sits dormant in the body for nearly 5 to 10 years, showing no outward symptoms. 2) During that time, the person is infectious. Passing on the virus without even knowing they have it. 3) The virus is insideous in its attack. It infects the very cells that trigger the immune system and incorporates itself into the body’s own genetic code. Once infected, the virus’s code is part of your own.

A disclaimer: I try to look at this as objectively as possible, passing no judgement on anyone for their actions or behaviors. If you are infected with HIV, my deepest empathy to you and I hope you’re getting treatment to control it. If you’ve lost friends or loved ones to AIDS, I can empathize, with you. I’ve lost several friends, too.

After living thru the late 70s and 80s as a gay man and seeing the disease progress from obscurity to a pandemic, I’ve pondered the philosophical question of it all and wanted to hear other opinions.

Based on the criteria you presented in your example, and based on the Black Plague in Europe all those years ago, I’d have to answer in the negative. AIDS is horrible, yes, but the fact remains that it is easily avoidable (generally). If the epidemic became truly dire, I would imagine that people would start being a lot more paranoid about sex and/or drug use.

What makes a pandemic truly horrible is that it’d be extremely easy to be infected (to some of us, sexual activity is tough), quick to kill, and a high mortality rate. Of these, AIDS only matches the latter.

However, this doesn’t mean that AIDS cannot mutate, or some other disease with similar properties but quicker/deadlier results can arise, which is why it’s important to find some means of stopping the disease… in addition to saving those who already have it.

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I don’t think it is the modern plague.

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  1. It is very easy to avoid infection.
  2. Lot’s of diseases are like that.
  3. Many diseases are also like that

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People with terminal illness get my sympathy to. But these days if someone gets AIDS it is probably directly related to their lifestyle. They either have sexual relationships with many partners or they share dirty needles. While unfortunate I can’t help think that they have brought this down on themselves. AIDS isn’t unique in this regard though. Diabetis (from being overweight), various heart diseases, and cancer can be attributed to someone’s lifestyle.

Marc

Hep C is just as infectious, actually far more so, the incubation time is long and just as devastating.

It is a mystery to me that this has not spread in the same way as AIDS as it is spread in all the same modes of transmission plus some more.
God help Africa if it gains a hold there.Yes there are vaccinations but the logistics and back-up including checking for succesful antibody reaction are well beyond the ability and pocket of virtually every African nation.

Having worked in a hospital and now currently working in prison we are briefed at least once a year(its compulsory) about the risks of both, and the precautions against Hep C are more stringent than for AIDS indeed we are told to treat all potential body fluid hazards, needlestick injuries etc as if they were Hep C as compliance with these precautions will protect against AIDS.

BTW AIDS does not sit dormant at all.It is very active indeed but the immune system suppresses it until it is finally compromised which is when HIV turns into AIDS.

Illnesses such as these do not discriminate between the ‘innocent’ and otherwise. You can reduce your chances but you cannot eliminate them.Mother to child through breast milk which is a significant risk in Africa is hardly a case of someone bringing on themselves.

Somewhere there is an Ebola or AIDS virus striving its little DNA heart out to become an airborne pathogen. Then the nightmare will begin.

Cecil had this to say about Hepatitis C last year:

http://www.straightdope.com/columns/990122.html

In summary, Cecil said that yes, it’s bad, yes, it has a long incubation period, yes, it’s incurable, and yes, there’s no vaccine for it; but its infection rate does not appear to be increasing.

Africa is more or less already under the thumb of AIDS. several countries (Zimbabwe being one, IIRC) have as high a rate as 1 in 4 adults. There are tens of millions of AIDS orphans. Birth control is scorned- sleeping with a virgin is seen as a cure in some segments of society. Worst of all, despite the high rate, people refuse to admit that they have the disease. The CDC thinks it’s only going to get worse.

I would personally call that a plague. the plague, however, is up to semantics. in the western world, it can be easy to avoid. Not so in Africa.

Plague is good.

Discuss.

andygirl wrote:

You know, if African nations want to be thought of as modern, sophisticated members of world civilization, and not as primitive, backward savages, they’ve got to stop living up to stereotypes like this.

Correction,

I just looked at some notes today and realised I was wrong about Hep C.
There is no vaccine for it I was thinking of Hep B,mind you this can be devastating too.

At present it is not thought to be as easily transmissable as AIDS sexually but more information is needed to be certain.It is more easily transmissable in other ways.

AIDS, in its current form, is not going to depopulate the world, like in Earth Abides (a great book btw). It may slow the rate of population growth, even cause negative growth in Africa. But I can’t see it infecting 99% of the population of the world. The trouble is that HIV can only be spread through intimate bodily contact. It is possible to take precautions to prevent infection. I do not say it is easy to take precautions, since many of these precautions are difficult and annoying. If they were easy, then why are infection rates so high? But anyway, even if half the world dies of AIDS, we still don’t have an “Earth Abides” scenario.

Wow, this was great! When I first thought about posting this topic, I was afraid that the thread would degenerate into some nasty finger pointing.

Some responses:

In the book, The Earth Abides the plague spread fairly quickly, sweeping the globe in a matter of weeks, perhaps even days. Why do we always assume that the killer plague would do this? Even highly infectious diseases don’t work this quickly.

Regarding transmission, while here in the States we’ve pretty much got the transmission and prevention thing down pat, LOTS of places do not! Andysgirl comments are accurate, I remember them from a Scientific American article. Sorry, I don’t have the citation right now. Southern Africa and southeast Asia, especially with a booming sex industry are ripe for spreading this rapidly.

Okay, Foolsguinea I’ll bite, why do you think plagues are good. I’m interested in hearing the logic behind this.

Lemur: I agree, it’s a great book, tho the end is depressing, especially as the hero ages and loses his cognitive ability.

I just saw the PBS American Experience Documentary “Influenza 1918” about the flu outbreak that swept the world in 1918 and killed mainly the young healthy men.

In the show they stated that there is a major mutation of the flu every thirty years or so that cause worldwide epidemics.

The last was in the sixties…

What a great book! Everyone who hasn’t read it should get a copy, turn off boob tube, shut down the computer, or what not and get reading. AIDS is nothing like the plague of the book. You get AIDS from sharing body fluids contemned by HIV, the novel featured a fast killing airborne virus that killed off most of the world in a few weeks. (But the novel was not really about the plague, but about what defines civilization and how civilization would change from such a calamity.) AIDS is a tragedy of poor judgement, ignorance, and bad behavior; unless there is a tainted blood supply, nobody should be infected with AIDS unless they indulge in risky sex or drug schemes.